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Xcel Energy Inc.: Q3 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q3 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 30 October 2025: press release. Guidance figures: 4 raised, 2 lowered, 11 new, 4 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • 2025 EPS guidance reaffirmed: The 2025 ongoing EPS range of $3.75 to $3.85 was reaffirmed, with the 2025 cost and sales assumptions updated in the notes. Source
  • 2026 EPS guidance initiated: The company initiated 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04 to $4.16, with assumptions of about 3% electric sales growth and capital rider revenue up $550-560 million. Source
  • Long-term EPS growth top end raised: The long-term EPS growth objective is 6% to 8+%, based on $3.80 per share, the midpoint of the 2025 guidance range. The prior objective was 6% to 8% on $3.55. Source
  • Ongoing EPS slightly lower: Third quarter ongoing diluted EPS was $1.24 against $1.25, while GAAP diluted EPS was $0.88 against $1.21. Ongoing net income was $737 million against $707 million. Source
  • Marshall charge drove GAAP gap: PSCo recorded a non-recurring $287 million charge for the Marshall Wildfire settlement, worth $0.36 per share. It is excluded from ongoing earnings. Source
  • NSP-Minnesota electric request reduced: NSP-Minnesota's electric revenue request was updated in rebuttal to $365 million from $473 million. The ALJ report is due April 2026 and an MPUC decision in Q3 2026. Source
  • Five-year base capex plan of $60 billion: Base capital expenditures total $60,000 million for 2026-2030, with NSP-Minnesota at $20,130 million, SPS at $19,030 million and PSCo at $17,600 million. Source
  • Marshall settlements cost $640 million: PSCo expects to pay about $640 million on Marshall settlements, with about $353 million expected to be reimbursed by remaining insurance. The $287 million charge was recognized in Q3. Source
  • Smokehouse Creek losses raised $120 million: Estimated probable losses for the Smokehouse Creek Fire Complex rose to $410 million before insurance, driven by large-claim settlements and tree damage. Source

“Today Xcel Energy unveiled our updated five-year infrastructure investment plan to serve increased energy demand from our communities”

Bob Frenzel, chairman, president and CEO of Xcel Energy

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
2025 ongoing EPS Sourcefull year 2025$3.75 to $3.85Kept
2026 ongoing EPS Sourcefull year 2026$4.04 to $4.16New
Long-term annual EPS growth Sourcelong-term6% to 8+%Raised from 6% to 8%
Long-term annual dividend growth Sourcelong-term4% to 6%Kept
Dividend payout ratio target Sourcelong-term45% to 55%Lowered from 50% to 60%
O&M expense growth Sourcefull year 2025~5%Raised from ~4%
Depreciation expense increase Sourcefull year 2025approximately $220 million to $230 millionRaised from approximately $210 million to $220 million
Interest expense increase (net of AFUDC - debt) Sourcefull year 2025$180 million to $190 millionRaised from $160 million to $170 million
Weather-normalized retail electric sales growth Sourcefull year 2025~3%Kept
Weather-normalized retail firm natural gas sales Sourcefull year 2025flatLowered from ~1%
Capital rider revenue increase (net of PTCs) Sourcefull year 2025$255 million to $265 millionKept
Weather-normalized retail electric sales growth Sourcefull year 2026~3%New
Weather-normalized retail firm natural gas sales Sourcefull year 2026~1%New
Capital rider revenue increase Sourcefull year 2026$550 million to $560 millionNew
O&M expense growth Sourcefull year 2026~3%New
Depreciation expense increase Sourcefull year 2026approximately $370 million to $380 millionNew
Property tax increase Sourcefull year 2026$30 million to $40 millionNew
Interest expense increase (net of AFUDC - debt) Sourcefull year 2026$290 million to $300 millionNew
AFUDC - equity increase Sourcefull year 2026$140 million to $150 millionNew
Base capital expenditures Source2026 through 2030$60,000 millionNew
Equity issuances for capital plan Source2026 through 2030$7,000 millionNew

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04 to $4.16 was initiated; no prior 2026 range was given. Source
  • Guidance raised: 2025 cost assumptions were raised: O&M to about 5%, depreciation to $220-230 million, and interest to $180-190 million. Source
  • Guidance lowered: 2025 weather-normalized firm natural gas sales were lowered to flat from about 1%. Source
  • Guidance raised: Long-term EPS growth objective now reads 6% to 8+%, applied to a $3.80 base instead of $3.55. Source
  • Guidance lowered: Target dividend payout ratio moved to 45% to 55% from 50% to 60%. Source
  • New: Updated five-year base capital plan of $60,000 million for 2026 through 2030 was unveiled. Source
  • New: Settlement agreements in principle were reached in September 2025 on Marshall Wildfire claims. Source
  • New: Estimated probable losses for the Smokehouse Creek Fire Complex rose by $120 million to $410 million before insurance. Source
  • New: PSCo filed a Colorado fast-track procurement for up to 4,000 MW clean energy, 200 MW firm and up to 300 MW other dispatchable resources. Source
  • New: SPS issued a second RFP in October 2025 for 870 MW of accredited capacity through 2032. Source
  • New: NSP-Minnesota plans a natural gas rate case filing on Oct. 31, 2025, requesting $63 million (8.2%). Source
  • New: Xcel Energy Inc. issued $900 million of 60-year junior subordinated debt on Oct. 7, 2025. Source
  • New: Ratings view changed: S&P and Fitch show Stable for Xcel Energy Inc. as of Oct. 27, 2025, versus Negative in July; NSP-Minnesota S&P moved to Stable. Source

Guidance and long-term objectives

  • 2025 EPS guidance reaffirmed: The 2025 ongoing EPS range of $3.75 to $3.85 was reaffirmed, with the 2025 cost and sales assumptions updated in the notes. Source
  • 2026 EPS guidance initiated: The company initiated 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04 to $4.16, with assumptions of about 3% electric sales growth and capital rider revenue up $550-560 million. Source
  • Long-term EPS growth top end raised: The long-term EPS growth objective is 6% to 8+%, based on $3.80 per share, the midpoint of the 2025 guidance range. The prior objective was 6% to 8% on $3.55. Source
  • Higher 2025 cost assumptions: O&M growth rose to about 5% from about 4%, depreciation to $220-230 million and interest to $180-190 million; the company tied the O&M increase to benefit costs. Source

Results and earnings drivers

  • Ongoing EPS slightly lower: Third quarter ongoing diluted EPS was $1.24 against $1.25, while GAAP diluted EPS was $0.88 against $1.21. Ongoing net income was $737 million against $707 million. Source
  • Marshall charge drove GAAP gap: PSCo recorded a non-recurring $287 million charge for the Marshall Wildfire settlement, worth $0.36 per share. It is excluded from ongoing earnings. Source
  • Year-to-date ongoing EPS higher: Nine-month ongoing diluted EPS was $2.84 against $2.69, while GAAP diluted EPS was $2.47 against $2.63. Source
  • Electric revenue rose on recovery: Electric revenue rose $245 million in the quarter and $614 million year-to-date, led by fuel recovery, non-fuel riders and regulatory rate outcomes. Source
  • Depreciation, interest and equity dilution drag: The quarter's EPS bridge shows depreciation at minus $0.09, interest at minus $0.08 and O&M at minus $0.05, partly offset by higher electric revenues of $0.28. Source

“We will continue to strive to ensure we keep customer bills as low as possible as we modernize and expand our country’s energy infrastructure.”

Bob Frenzel, chairman, president and CEO of Xcel Energy

Segments and regions

  • NSP-Minnesota earnings up: NSP-Minnesota GAAP EPS rose $0.08 to $0.53 for the quarter and ongoing EPS rose $0.04. Year-to-date ongoing EPS rose $0.05 on electric infrastructure recovery. Source
  • PSCo quarter lower, year-to-date higher: PSCo ongoing EPS fell $0.01 in the quarter. Year-to-date ongoing EPS rose $0.09 on electric and gas infrastructure recovery, offset by depreciation and interest. Source
  • SPS down on weather and costs: SPS EPS fell $0.04 in the quarter and $0.03 year-to-date. The year-to-date decline reflects unfavorable weather, interest and O&M, partly offset by recovery and sales growth. Source
  • NSP-Wisconsin flat: NSP-Wisconsin EPS was $0.07 in the quarter, the same as a year earlier, and $0.19 year-to-date, also flat. Source
  • Holding company costs narrowed: Xcel Energy Inc. and Other cost $0.07 per share in the quarter against $0.08, helped by debt repurchase gains, partly offset by higher rates and debt levels. Source

Sales and customer growth

  • Electric sales up year-to-date: Weather-normalized, leap-year adjusted retail electric sales rose 2.5% for the nine months across Xcel Energy, with SPS at 6.8% and PSCo at 2.0%. Source
  • SPS commercial sales growth: SPS commercial and industrial sales increased on higher use per customer, primarily driven by the energy sector. Source
  • Residential customer growth: Year-to-date residential customer growth was 1.1% at NSP-Minnesota, 1.2% at PSCo, 0.7% at SPS and 1.0% at NSP-Wisconsin. Source
  • PSCo residential gas use lower: Weather-normalized firm natural gas sales declined year-to-date at PSCo on lower residential use per customer, partly offset by growth in other jurisdictions. Source

“By virtually all standards - share of wallet, national and state averages, or tracking at or below inflation rates - Xcel Energy customers have some of the country’s lowest energy bills.”

Bob Frenzel, chairman, president and CEO of Xcel Energy

Costs, margins and pricing

  • O&M rose on benefits and nuclear: O&M rose $37 million in the quarter and $131 million year-to-date, mainly from benefits and healthcare, nuclear generation and insurance costs. Source
  • Depreciation and interest up with investment: Depreciation rose $69 million in the quarter and $158 million year-to-date on system investment. Interest charges rose $58 million in the quarter on higher debt and rates. Source
  • Fuel costs recovered through revenue: Electric fuel and purchased power rose $38 million in the quarter and $173 million year-to-date. These costs are generally recovered and offset in revenue. Source
  • Tax credits flow to customers: The effective income tax rate was 1.5% in the quarter against 1.4%. Production tax credits are credited to customers and reduce revenue rather than affecting earnings. Source

Rate cases and regulatory proceedings

  • NSP-Minnesota electric request reduced: NSP-Minnesota's electric revenue request was updated in rebuttal to $365 million from $473 million. The ALJ report is due April 2026 and an MPUC decision in Q3 2026. Source
  • Depreciation is the largest disputed item: About $100 million of NSP-Minnesota's proposed adjustments relate to depreciation expense, and $50 million are largely offset in trackers. Source
  • South Dakota electric case filed: NSP-Minnesota seeks a $44 million (15%) net annual electric increase in South Dakota, with interim rates requested from Jan. 1, 2026 and an SDPUC decision expected in Q2 2026. Source
  • Minnesota gas case to be filed: NSP-Minnesota plans to file a natural gas case on Oct. 31, 2025 seeking $63 million (8.2%), with $51 million of interim rates from Jan. 1, 2026. Source
  • Prairie Island refund estimate: If NSP-Minnesota's proposed adjustments were rejected, it estimates customer refunds for the Prairie Island outage at about $34 million. An ALJ report is due March 2026. Source
  • Riverside outage in rate request: The DOC's proposed adjustments include an $18 million 2025 and $13 million 2026 reduction tied to the Riverside outage. Source

Capital plan and infrastructure

  • Five-year base capex plan of $60 billion: Base capital expenditures total $60,000 million for 2026-2030, with NSP-Minnesota at $20,130 million, SPS at $19,030 million and PSCo at $17,600 million. Source
  • Renewables and transmission largest by function: Renewables total $13,920 million and electric transmission $15,440 million over 2026-2030. The plan excludes Colorado procurement and future MISO and SPP transmission. Source
  • Colorado fast-track procurement: The fast-track procurement seeks up to 4,000 MW of clean energy, 200 MW of firm dispatchable and up to 300 MW of other dispatchable resources. Bids were submitted in October 2025. Source
  • SPS second resource RFP: SPS issued a second RFP in October 2025 for 870 MW of accredited capacity through 2032, with bids due January 2026. Source
  • Colorado plan assumes 7% sales growth: The PSCo electric resource plan base case assumes 7% compound annual sales growth through 2031 and 5-14 GW of new generation need. Source

Financing, cash and credit

  • Funding plan for 2026-2030 capex: The 2026-2030 plan is funded by $30,180 million of cash from operations, $22,820 million of new debt and $7,000 million of equity, with $3,580 million of maturing debt. Source
  • Equity raised through at-the-market programs: Through nine months, 16.4 million shares were issued for $1.16 billion net. Forward agreements for 18.2 million shares, with minimum proceeds of $1.3 billion, have not settled. Source
  • Junior subordinated debt issued: Xcel Energy Inc. issued $900 million of 60-year junior subordinated debt at 6.25% on Oct. 7, 2025. No further 2025 debt issuances are planned. Source
  • Liquidity and total debt: Total liquidity was $4,247 million at Oct. 27, 2025 on $4,750 million of committed facilities. Total debt was $33,365 million, 61% of capitalization. Source
  • Ratings view stable at Xcel Energy Inc.: S&P and Fitch show Stable for Xcel Energy Inc. as of Oct. 27, 2025, against Negative in July. NSP-Minnesota S&P also moved to Stable. Source

Wildfire and legal matters

  • Marshall settlements cost $640 million: PSCo expects to pay about $640 million on Marshall settlements, with about $353 million expected to be reimbursed by remaining insurance. The $287 million charge was recognized in Q3. Source
  • Marshall settlements not yet final: The settlements remain subject to final documentation and plaintiffs opting in. The September 2025 trial was vacated, and opt-out plaintiffs would face further litigation. Source
  • Smokehouse Creek losses raised $120 million: Estimated probable losses for the Smokehouse Creek Fire Complex rose to $410 million before insurance, driven by large-claim settlements and tree damage. Source
  • Smokehouse claims settled: SPS reached final settlements on 212 of 254 claims through its claims process. It also settled 71 of about 83 claims received from attorneys, with $361 million of expected loss payments. Source
  • Texas civil investigation opened: In August 2025 the Texas Attorney General's office opened a civil investigation into utilities including Xcel Energy and SPS over the Smokehouse Creek and Windy Deuce fires. The company is cooperating. Source
  • Insurance receivables recorded: Insurance receivables for Smokehouse Creek were $341 million at Sept. 30, 2025, net of recoveries received, up from $210 million at Dec. 31, 2024. Source

Dividends and shareholder returns

  • Quarterly dividend declared higher: Cash dividends declared were $0.57 per share in the quarter against $0.5475 a year earlier. Nine-month dividends were $1.71 against $1.6425. Source
  • Payout target range lowered: The long-term dividend payout target is now 45% to 55%, down from 50% to 60%. The 4% to 6% annual dividend growth objective is unchanged. Source

Coming up, as management said on 30 October 2025

  • Minnesota electric ALJ report and decision: The ALJ report on NSP-Minnesota's electric rate case is expected April 2026, with an MPUC decision in Q3 2026. Source
  • South Dakota electric decision: A South Dakota decision on the NSP-Minnesota electric case is expected in Q2 2026, after an April 28-30, 2026 evidentiary hearing. Source
  • North Dakota electric decision: A North Dakota decision on the NSP-Minnesota electric case is expected in early 2026. Source
  • Minnesota gas interim rates: NSP-Minnesota will request $51 million of interim rates on its natural gas case, to take effect Jan. 1, 2026. Source
  • NSP-Wisconsin decision in Q4 2025: A PSCW decision on the NSP-Wisconsin electric and gas rate case is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2025. Source
  • Colorado resource need decision and solicitation: A CPUC decision on Colorado resource need is expected in Q4 2025, with competitive solicitation for resource additions in early 2026. Source
  • SPS second RFP bids and filing: Bids for the SPS second RFP are due January 2026, and the portfolio is expected to be filed in the second half of 2026. Source
  • Marshall settlement documents to execute: The September 2025 Marshall trial was vacated to give the parties time to execute definitive settlement agreements. Source
  • Prairie Island refund decision: An ALJ report on the Prairie Island refund amount is expected March 2026, with an MPUC decision in Q2 2026. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Rate case request: NSP-Minnesota electric (rebuttal) Source$365 million, down from $473 million
Rate case request: NSP-Wisconsin electric, 2026-2027 Source$94 million (11.8%) in 2026 plus $57 million (7.1%) in 2027
Rate case request: NSP-Minnesota gas Source$63 million (8.2%)
Rate base: NSP-Minnesota electric Source$13.2 billion (2025) to $14 billion (2026)
Capital plan: base capital expenditures 2026-2030 Source$60,000 million
Customer growth: residential, year-to-date SourceNSP-Minnesota 1.1%, PSCo 1.2%, SPS 0.7%, NSP-Wisconsin 1.0%
Load growth: weather-normalized retail electric sales, nine months (leap-year adjusted) Source2.5% across Xcel Energy
Load growth forecast: weather-normalized retail electric sales, 2026 Source~3%
Load growth forecast: PSCo base sales, through 2031 Source7% compound annual sales growth
EPS growth target: long-term annual Source6% to 8+%

Risks management discussed

  • Operational: A mechanical failure at the Riverside Generating Plant in April 2025 caused an extended outage, which the DOC's rate-case adjustments reference. Source
  • Regulatory: The Prairie Island refund could be about $34 million under intervenor positions, against NSP-Minnesota's position of no more than $6 million. Source
  • Regulatory: Marshall settlements depend on individual plaintiffs opting in; opt-out cases would face further litigation. Source
  • Financial: Smokehouse Creek damages could exceed insurance of about $500 million per annual policy period and have a material adverse effect. Source
  • Financial: Interest charges rose on higher debt levels and interest rates, a cost that the EPS bridge shows as a drag. Source
  • External: Unfavorable weather reduced SPS year-to-date earnings. Source
  • Demand: Lower residential use per customer at PSCo reduced natural gas sales year-to-date. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.