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Xcel Energy Inc.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 5 February 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 5 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Full-year ongoing EPS rose to $3.80: Ongoing diluted EPS was $3.80 for 2025, against $3.50 in 2024. GAAP diluted EPS was $3.42, against $3.44. Management attributed the ongoing increase to infrastructure recovery and electric sales growth. Source
  • Fourth quarter ongoing EPS was $0.96: Fourth quarter ongoing diluted EPS was $0.96, against $0.81 a year earlier. Fourth quarter GAAP diluted EPS was $0.95, against $0.81. The gap reflects a $0.01 Marshall Wildfire settlement adjustment. Source
  • New large data center customer announced: Management said the company recently announced another large data center customer. The release does not name the customer or give the load it will add. Source
  • Two alliances for system investment: Two alliances with development and supply chain partners were announced. Management said the aim is to deliver system investments affordably, speed data center development and drive innovation. Source
  • Colorado electric case seeks $356 million: PSCo’s electric rate case requests $356 million (9.9%), or $526 million including rider roll-ins, on a 9.8% ROE and a 2025 test year. A CPUC decision is expected in the third quarter of 2026. Source
  • Smokehouse Creek loss estimate rose to $430 million: The Smokehouse Creek loss estimate is $430 million before insurance, up from $410 million in October. Settlements total $382 million, of which $374 million was paid through 2025. Estimated insurance receivables are $195 million. Source

“In 2025, Xcel Energy delivered on our earnings guidance for the 21 st year in a row - one of the best track records in the industry.”

Bob Frenzel, chairman, president and CEO of Xcel Energy

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
2026 ongoing diluted EPS Source2026$4.04 to $4.16Kept
Weather-normalized retail electric sales growth Source2026 vs 2025~3%
Weather-normalized firm natural gas sales growth Source2026 vs 2025~1%
Capital rider revenue increase Source2026 vs 2025$535 million to $545 million
O&M expense increase Source2026 vs 2025~3%
Depreciation expense increase Source2026 vs 2025approximately $350 million to $360 million
Property tax increase Source2026 vs 2025$30 million to $40 million
Interest expense increase, net of AFUDC debt and interest income Source2026 vs 2025$300 million to $310 million
AFUDC equity increase Source2026 vs 2025$140 million to $150 million
Base capital expenditures Source2026$13,790 millionKept
Long-term annual EPS growth objective Sourcelong-term6% to 8+% off $3.80 per shareKept
Annual dividend increase objective Sourcelong-term4% to 6%Kept
Dividend payout ratio target Sourcelong-term45% to 55%Kept

What changed from last quarter

  • Guidance kept: 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04 to $4.16 was reaffirmed, the range initiated in the third quarter report. Source
  • Ended: The 2025 ongoing EPS guidance period closed; the company reported 2025 ongoing diluted EPS of $3.80 against the $3.75 to $3.85 range given in the third quarter report. Source
  • New: A large data center customer was announced after the third quarter report. Source
  • New: Two strategic alliances with development and supply chain partners were announced after the third quarter report. Source
  • New: Final settlement documentation for the Marshall Fire claims was executed by February 2026; the October report described agreements in principle. Source
  • New: The Texas Attorney General filed a lawsuit against SPS over the Smokehouse Creek Fire in December 2025, seeking damages and civil penalties. Source
  • New: The Wisconsin commission gave final written approval to NSP-Wisconsin’s multi-year electric and gas rate request in December 2025. Source
  • New: PSCo filed Colorado electric and natural gas rate cases in November and December 2025. Source
  • New: SPS filed a New Mexico electric rate case in November 2025. Source
  • New: NSP-Minnesota and NSP-Wisconsin issued a joint resource RFP in December 2025 for up to 3,500 MW of capacity. Source
  • New: The Moody's rating on Xcel Energy Inc. is shown as Negative, where the October report showed Stable. Source

Results and growth drivers

  • Full-year ongoing EPS rose to $3.80: Ongoing diluted EPS was $3.80 for 2025, against $3.50 in 2024. GAAP diluted EPS was $3.42, against $3.44. Management attributed the ongoing increase to infrastructure recovery and electric sales growth. Source
  • Fourth quarter ongoing EPS was $0.96: Fourth quarter ongoing diluted EPS was $0.96, against $0.81 a year earlier. Fourth quarter GAAP diluted EPS was $0.95, against $0.81. The gap reflects a $0.01 Marshall Wildfire settlement adjustment. Source
  • Electric revenue growth came mainly from riders: Electric revenues rose $1,013 million for 2025. Non-fuel riders added $250 million and recovery of higher fuel and purchased power costs added $214 million, with rate outcomes in Minnesota and North Dakota adding $116 million. Source
  • Weather reduced 2025 EPS against normal: The company estimated weather versus normal reduced 2025 EPS by $0.043. Decoupling and sales true-up mechanisms offset part of the weather effect in the gas and Minnesota electric businesses. Source

Strategy and data center growth

  • New large data center customer announced: Management said the company recently announced another large data center customer. The release does not name the customer or give the load it will add. Source
  • Two alliances for system investment: Two alliances with development and supply chain partners were announced. Management said the aim is to deliver system investments affordably, speed data center development and drive innovation. Source
  • Major projects placed in service: Management said the company placed in service Phase 2 of the Sherco Solar facility, the Harrington coal plant conversion to natural gas, and the first two segments of the Colorado Power Pathway. Source

“All the while, our customers continue to have some of the lowest energy bills in the country,”

Bob Frenzel, chairman, president and CEO of Xcel Energy

Capital plan and financing

  • Plan excludes pending generation and transmission: The base capital plan excludes incremental Colorado generation from the current procurement, future generation RFPs and transmission from future MISO and SPP planning. Those items could add to the plan. Source
  • Transmission and renewables lead the plan: Over 2026-2030, electric transmission is the largest category at $15.44 billion, followed by renewables at $13.92 billion and electric distribution at $13.71 billion. Source
  • Additional investment funded 40% equity: Management expects to fund additional capital investment with about 40% equity and 60% debt. Funding for the base plan is set out as cash from operations, new debt and equity issuances. Source
  • 2025 equity sales of 48.3 million shares: The company issued 48.3 million shares in 2025 through at-the-market settlements and forward sale settlements, for $3.34 billion in net proceeds. 27.2 million shares remain under forward agreements. Source
  • 2026 debt and equity issuance plans: Planned 2026 long-term debt issuances total $5.65 billion across Xcel Energy Inc., PSCo, NSP-Minnesota, SPS and NSP-Wisconsin. Management also plans incremental equity through the at-the-market program during 2026. Source

Rate cases and regulatory filings

  • Colorado electric case seeks $356 million: PSCo’s electric rate case requests $356 million (9.9%), or $526 million including rider roll-ins, on a 9.8% ROE and a 2025 test year. A CPUC decision is expected in the third quarter of 2026. Source
  • Wisconsin electric and gas rates approved: The Wisconsin commission approved a $126 million electric increase, $68 million in 2026 and $58 million in 2027, and a $22 million gas increase, based on a 9.8% ROE and 52.5% equity ratio. Source
  • Colorado gas case seeks $190 million: PSCo filed a natural gas rate case in December 2025 seeking $190 million (11.6%) on a 10.75% ROE. The CPUC decision and final rates are anticipated in the third quarter of 2026. Source
  • New Mexico electric case seeks $175 million: SPS filed an electric rate case seeking $175 million (16.7%) on a 10.5% ROE, based on a test period ending November 2027. Evidentiary hearing is scheduled for May 26 to June 5, 2026. Source
  • Minnesota electric case revenue request lowered: NSP-Minnesota updated its Minnesota electric revenue request to $365 million in rebuttal testimony, down from $473 million. The DOC re-asserted a 9.25% ROE. An ALJ report is expected in April 2026. Source
  • North Dakota electric settlement filed: A settlement with NDPSC Staff would raise the North Dakota electric revenue requirement by about $24 million, based on a 9.8% ROE and 52.5% equity ratio. A decision is anticipated in early 2026. Source

“As we look forward into 2026, we recently announced another large data center customer.”

Bob Frenzel, chairman, president and CEO of Xcel Energy

Segment and subsidiary earnings

  • NSP-Minnesota earnings rose $0.12: NSP-Minnesota GAAP earnings rose $0.12 per share and ongoing earnings rose $0.06 per share for 2025. Ongoing growth came from higher recovery of electric infrastructure investments, partly offset by O&M, depreciation and interest. Source
  • PSCo ongoing earnings rose $0.14: PSCo GAAP earnings fell $0.24 per share, reflecting the Marshall Wildfire settlement charge. Ongoing earnings rose $0.14 per share on infrastructure recovery and higher AFUDC, partly offset by depreciation, interest and O&M. Source
  • SPS earnings fell $0.03: SPS GAAP and ongoing earnings each fell $0.03 per share. Management cited higher interest, O&M and negative weather, partly offset by sales growth and higher recovery of electric infrastructure investments. Source
  • NSP-Wisconsin earnings rose $0.03: NSP-Wisconsin GAAP and ongoing earnings each rose $0.03 per share, driven by higher recovery of electric and natural gas infrastructure investments, partly offset by depreciation and O&M. Source
  • Holding company loss narrowed on debt gains: The holding company and other line was a loss of $0.23 per share, against $0.33 a year earlier. Management said gains on debt repurchases were partly offset by higher interest rates and debt levels. Source

Sales and customer growth

  • Electric sales grew 2.0% weather-normalized: Weather-normalized total retail electric sales rose 2.0% for 2025, led by SPS at 5.6% and PSCo at 1.3%. NSP-Minnesota was flat and NSP-Wisconsin rose 0.6%. Source
  • Residential growth came from customers and use: NSP-Minnesota residential sales rose on customer growth of 1.1% and use per customer of 0.4%. PSCo residential sales rose on customer growth of 1.1% and use per customer of 0.6%. Source
  • Firm gas sales declined on use per customer: Weather-normalized firm natural gas sales fell 1.7% for 2025. Management attributed the decline mainly to lower use per customer in PSCo residential and commercial, partly offset by customer growth. Source

Costs and expense drivers

  • O&M rose $192 million: O&M expenses rose $192 million for 2025, mainly from benefits and healthcare, wildfire mitigation (largely offset in rider revenue), nuclear generation and insurance costs. Source
  • Depreciation rose $209 million: Depreciation and amortization rose $209 million for 2025, primarily from system investment. Source
  • Interest charges rose $213 million: Interest charges rose $213 million for 2025, largely from higher long-term and short-term debt levels and higher interest rates. Source
  • AFUDC rose $165 million on system investment: AFUDC rose $165 million for 2025, due to system investment. Source
  • Production tax credits flow to customers: Wind, solar and nuclear production tax credits are credited to customers and reduce revenue, and do not materially affect earnings. The 2025 effective tax rate was a benefit of 13.8%, against 26.2% in 2024. Source

Wildfire litigation and reserves

  • Marshall settlements totaled $640 million: PSCo recognized $287 million in the third quarter and $12 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 for Marshall Fire settlement and related costs, net of expected insurance reimbursement. Insurance receivables total $353 million. Source
  • Smokehouse Creek loss estimate rose to $430 million: The Smokehouse Creek loss estimate is $430 million before insurance, up from $410 million in October. Settlements total $382 million, of which $374 million was paid through 2025. Estimated insurance receivables are $195 million. Source
  • Texas Attorney General lawsuit added: The Texas Attorney General filed suit against SPS in December 2025 over the Smokehouse Creek Fire, seeking damages and civil penalties. The $430 million estimate excludes penalties, fines and exemplary damages. Source
  • Smokehouse exposure could exceed insurance: Management said that if SPS were found liable and required to pay damages, amounts could exceed insurance coverage of about $500 million for the annual policy period. Source

Balance sheet, liquidity and dividends

  • Liquidity of $3.0 billion at February 2026: Total liquidity across the committed facilities was $3,011 million as of February 2, 2026, including $2,986 million available under credit facilities and $25 million of cash. A $1.5 billion term loan was entered into in January 2026. Source
  • PSCo rating shows Negative from Moody’s: PSCo’s secured rating from Moody’s is A1 with a Negative designation, where October showed Stable. S&P and Fitch ratings for PSCo are unchanged in the tables. Source
  • Equity rose to 41% of capitalization: Common equity was $23,609 million at December 31, 2025, or 41% of total capitalization, against $19,522 million and 40% a year earlier. Total debt was 59% of capitalization. Source
  • Q4 dividend $0.57 per share: Cash dividends declared were $0.57 per share in the fourth quarter, against $0.5475 a year earlier. Book value per share was $39.54, against $33.88. Source

Coming up, as management said on 5 February 2026

  • Minnesota electric decision expected Q3 2026: The administrative law judge report is due April 2026. The MPUC decision on the Minnesota electric rate case is expected in the third quarter of 2026. Source
  • South Dakota decision expected Q2 2026: Evidentiary hearing for the South Dakota electric case is set for April 28 to 30, 2026, with a decision expected in the second quarter. Source
  • Colorado rate decisions expected Q3 2026: The CPUC decision and implementation of final rates for both the PSCo electric and natural gas rate cases are anticipated in the third quarter of 2026. Source
  • New Mexico hearing and decision: The public evidentiary hearing for the SPS New Mexico case runs May 26 to June 5, 2026. The decision and final rates are anticipated in the second half of 2026. Source
  • Colorado Phase II solicitation RFP in Q3 2026: A written decision on the Colorado resource plan is expected in the first quarter of 2026, with a Phase II RFP expected to be issued in the third quarter of 2026. Source
  • Renewable RFP bids due March 2026: Bids for the NSP-Minnesota and NSP-Wisconsin RFP are due in March 2026, with filing for MPUC approval expected by the end of 2026. Source
  • SPS portfolio filing in H2 2026: Bids for the SPS resource RFP were received in January 2026, and the portfolio is expected to be filed in the second half of 2026. Source
  • Incremental 2026 equity issuance: Management plans to issue incremental equity throughout 2026 through the at-the-market program or other offerings. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Rate base SourceNSP-Minnesota electric $13.2 billion (2025), $14 billion (2026)
Rate case request SourceSPS New Mexico electric $175 million (16.7%)
Rate case request SourcePSCo Colorado electric $356 million (9.9%)
Customer growth SourceResidential customer growth 1.1% (NSP-Minnesota, 2025); PSCo 1.1%, SPS 0.7%, NSP-Wisconsin 0.9%
Load growth SourceXcel Energy weather-normalized total retail electric sales 2.0% (2025)
Load forecast SourcePSCo 3% compound annual sales growth through 2031

Risks management discussed

  • Financial: Smokehouse Creek damages could exceed the company’s roughly $500 million insurance coverage if SPS is found liable, with a potentially material effect on financial condition and cash flows. Source
  • External: Management cannot estimate additional Smokehouse Creek losses or the upper end of the range, given unknown facts and legal considerations. Source
  • Regulatory: The Texas Attorney General seeks civil penalties in addition to damages for the Smokehouse Creek Fire; penalties are excluded from the current estimate. Source
  • Regulatory: The Minnesota Department of Commerce re-asserted a 9.25% ROE, below the 10.3% requested, in the electric rate case. Source
  • External: Remaining Marshall Fire plaintiffs who have not accepted settlements may pursue further litigation. Source
  • Demand: Actual capital expenditures may differ from the forecast due to load growth, safety and reliability needs and regulatory decisions. Source
  • Financial: Higher long-term and short-term debt levels and interest rates drove the 2025 interest charge increase of $213 million. Source
  • Financial: The company has forward equity agreements covering 27.2 million shares, with minimum expected proceeds of $2.02 billion, that dilute shares when settled. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Met: Management said the company delivered on earnings guidance for the 21st year in a row, with 2025 ongoing EPS of $3.80. Source
  • Ahead: Filing for MPUC approval of the NSP renewable RFP selections is expected by the end of 2026, ahead of the established schedule. Source
  • Not stated: Management reaffirmed the 2026 ongoing EPS guidance range; no status word was given. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.