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Xcel Energy Inc.: Q1 FY2026 earnings call

What management said about Q1 FY2026, from the documents filed with the SEC on 30 April 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 4 lowered, 8 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Ongoing EPS rose to $0.91: First-quarter ongoing EPS was $0.91 against $0.84 a year earlier. GAAP EPS was $0.89 against $0.84. Net income was $556 million against $483 million. Source
  • Infrastructure recovery offset weather: Ongoing earnings rose on higher recovery of electric infrastructure investments and electric sales growth. Those gains were partly offset by financing costs and depreciation, despite unseasonably warm weather. Source
  • Warm weather cut EPS about 10 cents: Weather reduced first-quarter EPS by $0.102 against 2025. Firm natural gas accounted for $0.079 of that and retail electric for $0.035, per the company's weather estimates. Source
  • Prairie Island refunds cut revenue: A $37 million non-recurring charge, including interest, reduced electric revenues for customer refunds tied to the Prairie Island outage. Source
  • Google data center agreement signed: NSP-Minnesota signed an electric service agreement for a new Google data center in Minnesota. Google pays all costs for its new service for the agreement term. Source
  • Smokehouse loss estimate raised: Remaining probable losses of $63 million bring the estimated total for the Smokehouse Creek Fire Complex to $460 million before insurance, up from $430 million at year-end. Source
  • Insurance coverage nearly used up: About $90 million of the $525 million annual policy coverage remains after settlements and legal costs through March 31, 2026. Source

“At Xcel Energy, we continue to make energy work better for our customers and our past quarter showcased our keen focus on execution and delivering on our plans to strengthen and modernize the grid”

Bob Frenzel, chairman, president and CEO of Xcel Energy

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
2026 ongoing EPS Source2026$4.04 to $4.16 per shareKept
Weather-normalized retail electric sales growth Source2026 vs 2025~3%Kept
Weather-normalized firm natural gas sales growth Source2026 vs 2025~1%Kept
Capital rider revenue increase Source2026$505 million to $515 millionLowered from $535 million to $545 million
O&M expenses increase Source2026 vs 2025~3%Kept
Depreciation expense increase Source2026$330 million to $340 millionLowered from $350 million to $360 million
Property taxes increase Source2026$30 million to $40 millionKept
Interest expense net of AFUDC debt increase Source2026$270 million to $280 millionLowered from $300 million to $310 million
AFUDC equity increase Source2026$130 million to $140 millionLowered from $140 million to $150 million
Long-term annual EPS growth SourceLong term, off $3.80 per share6% to 8+%Kept
Annual dividend increase SourceLong term4% to 6%Kept
Dividend payout ratio SourceLong term45% to 55%Kept

What changed from last quarter

  • Guidance kept: 2026 ongoing EPS guidance kept at its prior range, with several key assumption lines revised. Source
  • Guidance lowered: Four 2026 assumption lines were projected lower than at year-end: capital rider revenue, depreciation, interest and AFUDC equity. Source
  • New: NSP-Minnesota signed an electric service agreement with Google for a new Minnesota data center in the first quarter. Source
  • New: Estimated total loss for the Smokehouse Creek Fire Complex, before insurance, raised to $460 million from $430 million at year-end. Source
  • New: Forward sale agreements for 13.6 million shares were entered during the quarter, with minimum expected proceeds of $1.1 billion. Source
  • New: NSP-Minnesota and SDPUC Staff filed a South Dakota electric settlement at $26 million, against an original request of $44 million. Source

Results and growth drivers

  • Ongoing EPS rose to $0.91: First-quarter ongoing EPS was $0.91 against $0.84 a year earlier. GAAP EPS was $0.89 against $0.84. Net income was $556 million against $483 million. Source
  • Infrastructure recovery offset weather: Ongoing earnings rose on higher recovery of electric infrastructure investments and electric sales growth. Those gains were partly offset by financing costs and depreciation, despite unseasonably warm weather. Source
  • Equity financing reduced EPS: Diluted shares were 626 million against 577 million. The EPS bridge shows common equity financing as an $0.08 per share drag on the quarter. Source

Segments and regions

  • PSCo ongoing EPS fell on weather: PSCo GAAP EPS was $0.42 against $0.45. Ongoing EPS fell $0.06 on unfavorable weather, partly offset by higher recovery of electric infrastructure investments. Source
  • NSP-Minnesota Prairie Island refunds: NSP-Minnesota GAAP EPS was $0.30 against $0.32. Ongoing EPS rose $0.02 on infrastructure recovery. The gap between the two reflects customer refunds for the Prairie Island outage. Source
  • SPS and NSP-Wisconsin each rose: SPS and NSP-Wisconsin each reported a $0.03 per share increase. SPS was driven by sales growth and NSP-Wisconsin by infrastructure recovery. Source
  • Holding company costs narrowed: Xcel Energy Inc. and Other cost $0.08 per share against $0.11 a year earlier. The line covers holding company financing costs, interest income and equity-method fund earnings. Source

“Our data center agreement in the Upper Midwest with Google in the quarter sets a high bar for ongoing community development and investment for data centers”

Bob Frenzel, chairman, president and CEO of Xcel Energy

Weather and sales volumes

  • Warm weather cut EPS about 10 cents: Weather reduced first-quarter EPS by $0.102 against 2025. Firm natural gas accounted for $0.079 of that and retail electric for $0.035, per the company's weather estimates. Source
  • Residential use per customer fell: Year-to-date weather-normalized residential sales fell on lower use per customer at SPS and PSCo, partly offset by customer growth in every jurisdiction. Source
  • Energy-sector commercial sales rose: Year-to-date weather-normalized commercial and industrial sales rose on higher use per customer at SPS and NSP-Minnesota, with energy-sector activity cited. Source
  • Firm gas sales fell at PSCo: Actual firm natural gas sales fell 25.1% at PSCo and 16.8% across the company in the quarter. Source

Costs, margins and revenue drivers

  • Interest and depreciation rose: Interest charges rose $80 million and depreciation and amortization rose $40 million, reflecting higher debt levels, higher interest rates and system investment. Source
  • Prairie Island refunds cut revenue: A $37 million non-recurring charge, including interest, reduced electric revenues for customer refunds tied to the Prairie Island outage. Source
  • Marshall insurance recoverable lowered costs: PSCo lowered operating expenses by $22 million after raising its estimate of insurance recoverable amounts for non-recurring Marshall Wildfire costs. Source
  • AFUDC rose on system investment: AFUDC rose $61 million, largely from system investment. The EPS bridge shows higher AFUDC equity and debt adding $0.10 per share. Source
  • Tax benefit rate smaller than last year: The effective income tax rate was a 9.2% benefit against a 14.5% benefit a year earlier. PTC credits go to customers and do not materially affect earnings. Source

“we look forward to advancing more projects in the near future.”

Bob Frenzel, chairman, president and CEO of Xcel Energy

Rate cases and regulatory proceedings

  • Minnesota electric case updated: NSP-Minnesota updated its Minnesota electric revenue request in rebuttal testimony. The ALJ report was expected April 30, 2026, with an MPUC decision in the third quarter. Source
  • South Dakota settlement filed in April: NSP-Minnesota and SDPUC Staff filed a black box settlement in April 2026, against an original South Dakota electric request of $44 million. Source
  • Colorado electric case under review: Eight intervenors filed testimony on April 28, 2026. Proposed ROEs ranged from 8.10% to 9.45%, against PSCo's requested 9.8%. Source
  • New Mexico and Colorado gas cases pending: PSCo's natural gas case seeks an 11.6% increase. SPS's New Mexico electric case seeks 16.0%, as updated, and implementation is anticipated late in 2026. Source

Large load and resource additions

  • Google data center agreement signed: NSP-Minnesota signed an electric service agreement for a new Google data center in Minnesota. Google pays all costs for its new service for the agreement term. Source
  • Customer benefits expected if approved: If approved, the agreement is expected to yield about $1.1 billion of benefits to NSP-Minnesota customers. A Clean Energy Accelerator Charge covers 1,900 MW of clean energy resources. Source
  • Resource RFP bids submitted in March: NSP-Minnesota and NSP-Wisconsin jointly seek up to 3,500 MW of wind, solar, hydro, storage or hybrid capacity. Bids were submitted in March 2026. Source

Capital, cash and returns to shareholders

  • Junior notes and bonds completed: Xcel Energy Inc. completed $800 million of 30-year junior subordinated notes at 5.75%. PSCo and NSP-Minnesota completed first mortgage bonds of $1.3 billion and $1.2 billion. Source
  • Unsettled forward shares remain: 40.9 million shares remain unsettled under forward sale agreements at March 31, 2026, with minimum expected proceeds of $3.1 billion. Source
  • Liquidity of $5.3 billion: Total liquidity was $5,287 million as of April 27, 2026, across Xcel Energy Inc. and its utility subsidiaries, with $4,220 million available under committed facilities. Source
  • Debt rose to 61% of capital: Total debt was $37,033 million, or 61% of total capitalization, at March 31, 2026, against $33,883 million and 59% at December 31, 2025. Source
  • Dividend declared and book value up: Cash dividends declared were $0.5925 per share against $0.57. Book value per share was $38.01 against $34.34 a year earlier. Source

Wildfire litigation

  • Smokehouse loss estimate raised: Remaining probable losses of $63 million bring the estimated total for the Smokehouse Creek Fire Complex to $460 million before insurance, up from $430 million at year-end. Source
  • Insurance coverage nearly used up: About $90 million of the $525 million annual policy coverage remains after settlements and legal costs through March 31, 2026. Source
  • Settlement payments rising: Settlements reached total $397 million of expected loss payments, of which $385 million was paid through March 31, 2026. Source
  • Texas lawsuit and pole procedures: The Texas Attorney General's lawsuit is pending. In February 2026, SPS and the office jointly filed a temporary injunction on certain distribution pole replacement procedures. Source
  • Marshall Wildfire mostly settled: Final settlement documents are executed with insurers, public entities and nearly all individual plaintiffs. Three related individuals continue to pursue their claims. Source

Coming up, as management said on 30 April 2026

  • Minnesota electric ALJ report: ALJ report expected April 30, 2026, with an MPUC decision in the third quarter of 2026. Source
  • Colorado electric decision timing: A CPUC decision and final rates are anticipated in the third quarter, following the June 11-18 hearing. Source
  • NSP-Wisconsin bond closing: The 15-year first mortgage bond priced April 1 is expected to close and fund in June 2026. Source
  • Clean Energy Accelerator approvals pending: Approvals for 1,000 MW of Clean Energy Accelerator resources are pending, with the remaining resources to be requested by end of 2026. Source
  • PSCo Phase II solicitation RFP: A Phase II competitive solicitation RFP for PSCo's remaining resource needs through 2031 is expected in the third quarter of 2026. Source
  • SPS portfolio filing in second half: The SPS resource portfolio, using bids received in January 2026, is expected to be filed in the second half of 2026. Source
  • Colorado gas case decision in Q4: A CPUC decision and final rates for PSCo's natural gas case are anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2026. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Rate cases SourceNSP-Minnesota electric revenue request updated to $365 million
Rate cases SourcePSCo electric revenue request $356 million (9.9%)
Rate cases SourceSPS New Mexico electric revenue request $168 million (16.0%)
Rate base growth SourceNSP-Minnesota electric rate base $13.2 billion (2025) and $14 billion (2026)
Capital plan SourceCapital rider revenue projected to increase $505 million to $515 million in 2026
Load growth SourcePSCo load forecast of 3% compound annual sales growth through 2031
EPS growth target SourceLong-term annual EPS growth of 6% to 8+% off $3.80 per share

Risks management discussed

  • Financial: Remaining Smokehouse Creek claims could exceed the $525 million annual insurance coverage, with possible material adverse effect. Source
  • Regulatory: The Smokehouse estimate excludes potential penalties or fines that governmental entities may impose on Xcel Energy. Source
  • Regulatory: DOC re-asserted a proposed 9.25% ROE in the Minnesota electric case, below the 10.3% requested. Source
  • Financial: Interest charges rose on higher debt levels and interest rates, adding cost pressure this quarter. Source
  • Operational: A temporary injunction in the Texas lawsuit sets distribution pole replacement procedures for SPS while the case is pending. Source
  • Demand: Unseasonably warm weather reduced first-quarter electric and gas sales and earnings relative to normal. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Not stated: The company reaffirmed its 2026 ongoing EPS guidance; the documents do not report progress against it. Source
  • Met: The junior subordinated notes listed in the 2026 financing plan are shown as completed. Source
  • Met: NSP-Minnesota's requested interim gas rates were approved by the MPUC, effective January 1, 2026. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.