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Warrior Met Coal, Inc.: Q3 FY2026 earnings call

What management said about Q3 FY2026, from the documents filed with the SEC on 4 November 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 9 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Sales and production volumes rose: Tons sold rose 48% to 3.5 million short tons and tons produced rose 36% to 3.1 million, with Blue Creek contributing to both. Source
  • Net income and Adjusted EBITDA grew: Net income was $49.3 million and Adjusted EBITDA rose 76% to $124.0 million, attributed to the Blue Creek ramp-up and higher steelmaking coal prices. Source
  • Realization fell on sales mix: Gross selling price realization fell to about 66% from 83%, mainly from a 25% higher mix of High-Vol A coal sold into the Pacific Basin at higher freight rates. Source
  • Cash cost per ton rose 4%: Cash cost of sales per short ton rose 4% to $104.98, reflecting higher variable costs, fewer tons at Mine No. 7 and inflation. Source
  • Free cash flow was $138.9 million: Cash from operations was $166.0 million and free cash flow was $138.9 million, against negative $19.5 million a year earlier. Source
  • Special dividend of $2.00 declared: The special dividend of $2.00 per share, about $106 million, is planned for distribution on November 20, 2026, to holders of record on November 9. Source
  • Blue Creek longwall started early: Longwall operations at Blue Creek began about one year ago, eight months ahead of schedule, and construction finished two quarters ago, also ahead of schedule. Source
  • Full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed: The company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, as updated last quarter, and listed the key factors that may affect it. Source

“We delivered strong sales volumes in the third quarter as Blue Creek continued to expand our production base and strengthen our cash-generating capacity,”

Walt Scheller, CEO of Warrior

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Coal sales Sourcefull year 202613.0 - 14.0 million short tonsKept
Coal production Sourcefull year 202612.5 - 13.5 million short tonsKept
Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) per short ton Sourcefull year 2026$95 - $105 per short tonKept
Capital expenditures for sustaining existing mines Sourcefull year 2026$105 - $115 millionKept
Capital expenditures for Blue Creek project Sourcefull year 2026$50 - $75 millionKept
Depreciation and depletion Sourcefull year 2026$225 - $250 millionKept
Selling, general and administrative expenses Sourcefull year 2026$75 - $85 millionKept
Interest expense Sourcefull year 2026$20 - $25 millionKept
Interest income Sourcefull year 2026$3 - $8 millionKept

What changed from last quarter

  • Guidance kept: Full-year 2026 guidance was reaffirmed as updated in the prior quarter, with no revision in this release. Source
  • New: The Board declared a special cash dividend of $2.00 per share, about $106 million, on October 27, 2026. Source
  • Ended: The guidance key factors now list one longwall move remaining in Q4, down from three planned moves (two in Q3, one in Q4) in the prior release. Source

Results and growth drivers

  • Sales and production volumes rose: Tons sold rose 48% to 3.5 million short tons and tons produced rose 36% to 3.1 million, with Blue Creek contributing to both. Source
  • Net income and Adjusted EBITDA grew: Net income was $49.3 million and Adjusted EBITDA rose 76% to $124.0 million, attributed to the Blue Creek ramp-up and higher steelmaking coal prices. Source
  • Total revenues increased: Total revenues were $507.9 million, reflecting a 48% rise in sales volumes and a 6% rise in the average net selling price. Source
  • Diluted EPS was $0.93: Basic and diluted net income per share was $0.93 in the third quarter of 2026, compared with $0.70 in the same quarter of 2025. Source

Pricing and sales mix

  • Realization fell on sales mix: Gross selling price realization fell to about 66% from 83%, mainly from a 25% higher mix of High-Vol A coal sold into the Pacific Basin at higher freight rates. Source
  • Average net selling price rose: Average net selling price rose 6% as Premium Low-Vol and High-Vol A coal prices improved, partly offset by Pacific freight and demurrage costs. Source
  • Freight and demurrage offset prices: Higher Pacific freight costs and demurrage rate increases, tied to the Middle East conflict, partly offset the price gain. Source

“The special dividend announced this quarter represents an important milestone for Warrior and demonstrates how quickly Blue Creek is beginning to translate into value for our stockholders,”

Walt Scheller, CEO of Warrior

Costs and margins

  • Cash cost per ton rose 4%: Cash cost of sales per short ton rose 4% to $104.98, reflecting higher variable costs, fewer tons at Mine No. 7 and inflation. Source
  • Blue Creek and 45X credit offset costs: Lower-cost Blue Creek tons and the Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit partly offset the cost increase. Source
  • Cash margin per ton rose: Cash margin per ton was $38.58, up from $35.14, and cost of production was 63% of cash costs against 67% a year earlier. Source
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin rose: Adjusted EBITDA margin was 24.4% against 21.5% a year earlier, and Adjusted EBITDA per short ton was $35.54. Source

Cash flow and liquidity

  • Free cash flow was $138.9 million: Cash from operations was $166.0 million and free cash flow was $138.9 million, against negative $19.5 million a year earlier. Source
  • Working capital fell on lower inventory: Net working capital excluding cash fell $33.7 million from the second quarter, mainly from lower inventories after surplus High-Vol A coal was sold. Source
  • Liquidity reached $577.6 million: Total liquidity at September 30, 2026 was $577.6 million, made up of $437.1 million in cash and $140.5 million available under the ABL Facility. Source

Capital returns to shareholders

  • Special dividend of $2.00 declared: The special dividend of $2.00 per share, about $106 million, is planned for distribution on November 20, 2026, to holders of record on November 9. Source
  • Regular dividend kept at $0.08: The regular quarterly dividend of $0.08 per share is planned for distribution on November 13, 2026, to holders of record on November 6. Source

Blue Creek and operations

  • Blue Creek longwall started early: Longwall operations at Blue Creek began about one year ago, eight months ahead of schedule, and construction finished two quarters ago, also ahead of schedule. Source
  • Mine No. 7 volumes lower: Lower production at Mine No. 7 meant production costs were absorbed over fewer tons, adding to the cash cost increase. Source
  • Blue Creek tied to cash generation: Management described Blue Creek as an investment in cash generation and in returning excess cash to stockholders. Source

Full-year 2026 guidance

  • Full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed: The company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, as updated last quarter, and listed the key factors that may affect it. Source
  • Index pricing and trade named as factors: The guidance lists HCC index pricing, sales geography, freight rates, and global trade and tariff policies as factors that may affect performance. Source
  • Non-recurring costs excluded from guidance: Guidance excludes other non-recurring costs and assumes a new labor contract and inflationary pressures are factors to watch. Source

Coming up, as management said on 4 November 2026

  • Future special dividends at Board discretion: Any future special dividends from excess cash flow will be at the Board's discretion, subject to business conditions and other strategic investment opportunities. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Tons sold (thousand short tons, third quarter 2026) Source3,490
Tons produced (thousand short tons, third quarter 2026) Source3,053

Risks management discussed

  • External: Management cited global trade and tariff uncertainties and steel and steelmaking coal market conditions as factors that may affect performance. Source
  • External: Higher Pacific freight costs and demurrage rates tied to the Middle East conflict reduced the price gain. Source
  • Operational: Vessel loading delays at the port were cited as a factor affecting the average net selling price. Source
  • Operational: Management listed exclusion of non-recurring costs, a new labor contract and inflationary pressures as factors that may affect full-year 2026 guidance. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Ahead: Longwall operations at Blue Creek began eight months ahead of schedule, about one year before this quarter. Source
  • Ahead: Blue Creek construction was completed two quarters earlier than planned, ahead of schedule. Source
  • Not stated: The company reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance, as updated in the prior quarter, without stating a status against it. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.