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Warrior MET Coal, Inc.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 12 February 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 2 raised, 7 new, 1 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Q4 net income rose year over year: Fourth-quarter net income was $23.0 million, or $0.44 per diluted share, against $1.1 million, or $0.02, a year earlier. Full-year net income was $57.0 million. Source
  • Adjusted EBITDA rose on Blue Creek: Adjusted EBITDA was $92.9 million, up from $53.2 million, which the company attributed to improved operating performance and early Blue Creek profitability. Full-year Adjusted EBITDA was $256.5 million. Source
  • Cash cost share fell to 72.2%: Cash cost of sales was $269.6 million, or 72.2% of mining revenues, down from 77.4%. Management cited the Blue Creek sales mix and its lower inherent cost structure, plus lower variable costs. Source
  • Index price down 22% year over year: The average index price for premium low-volatility coal was 22% lower than a year earlier. Source
  • Blue Creek longwall started early: Blue Creek longwall commissioning began in October, eight months ahead of schedule. Source
  • Free cash flow negative $28.3m: Free cash flow was negative $28.3 million, compared with negative $88.0 million a year earlier, driven by continued Blue Creek development. Source
  • Pricing expected to stay challenging: Management expects pricing to remain challenging in 2026 even as volumes rise, citing the High Vol A quality tier in particular. Source

“Our team's disciplined execution in the fourth quarter and throughout 2025 delivered exceptional progress at Blue Creek,”

Walt Scheller, CEO of Warrior

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Coal sales volume Sourcefull year 202612.5 - 13.5 million short tonsRaised
Coal production volume Sourcefull year 202612.0 - 13.0 million short tonsRaised
Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) per short ton Sourcefull year 2026$95 - $110 per short tonNew
Capital expenditures, sustaining existing mines Sourcefull year 2026$105 - $115 millionNew
Capital expenditures, Blue Creek project Sourcefull year 2026$50 - $75 millionNew
Depreciation and depletion Sourcefull year 2026$225 - $250 millionNew
Selling, general and administrative expenses Sourcefull year 2026$75 - $85 millionNew
Interest expense Sourcefull year 2026$20 - $25 millionNew
Interest income Sourcefull year 2026$3 - $8 millionNew
Total Blue Creek project capital expenditures Sourceproject total$995 million to $1.075 billionKept

What changed from last quarter

  • Guidance raised: Volume guidance for 2026 was raised, citing solid operational performance by Blue Creek. Source
  • New guidance: Full-year 2026 guidance set was provided in this release, covering sales, production, cash cost, capital, depreciation, SG&A and interest. Source
  • New: Two federal coal leases were finalized with the U.S. Department of Interior and Bureau of Land Management. Source
  • Guidance kept: Blue Creek total project capital expenditure range was kept at $995 million to $1.075 billion, with the company stating it remains on budget. Source

Results and profitability

  • Q4 net income rose year over year: Fourth-quarter net income was $23.0 million, or $0.44 per diluted share, against $1.1 million, or $0.02, a year earlier. Full-year net income was $57.0 million. Source
  • Adjusted EBITDA rose on Blue Creek: Adjusted EBITDA was $92.9 million, up from $53.2 million, which the company attributed to improved operating performance and early Blue Creek profitability. Full-year Adjusted EBITDA was $256.5 million. Source
  • Full-year revenue fell on prices: Full-year total revenues were $1.3 billion, down 14 percent, as lower net selling prices outweighed higher sales volumes. Source
  • Tax and net interest income: Fourth-quarter income tax expense was $12.9 million on pre-tax income of $35.9 million. Net interest income was $1.2 million, lower on reduced cash balances and earned rates. Source

Sales mix and realization

  • Realization fell to 75% of index: Gross selling price realization was about 75% of the Platts Premium Low Vol FOB Australian index for the fourth quarter, down from 86% a year earlier. Source
  • Pacific Basin sales rose 18%: Sales into the Pacific Basin rose 18% in the fourth quarter, alongside a 12% higher sales mix of high-vol A steelmaking coal. Source
  • Full-year realization fell to 80%: Full-year realization was about 80% of the index, against 89% in 2024, on a 13% higher high-vol A mix sold mainly into the Pacific Basin and elevated freight rates. Source

“We are poised for a significant expansion in scale in 2026 as the early start of the Blue Creek longwall operation is already driving higher production, improved cost performance and record quarterly sales volumes.”

Walt Scheller, CEO of Warrior

Costs, margins and depreciation

  • Cash cost share fell to 72.2%: Cash cost of sales was $269.6 million, or 72.2% of mining revenues, down from 77.4%. Management cited the Blue Creek sales mix and its lower inherent cost structure, plus lower variable costs. Source
  • Depreciation rose on Blue Creek assets: Depreciation and depletion was $56.4 million, or 14.7% of total revenues, higher than a year earlier, due to Blue Creek assets placed into service and higher sales volumes. Source
  • SG&A rose on employee expenses: Selling, general and administrative expenses were $18.1 million, or 4.7% of total revenues, higher on employee-related costs. Source

Market conditions and Blue Creek

  • Index price down 22% year over year: The average index price for premium low-volatility coal was 22% lower than a year earlier. Source
  • Demand and supply drove pricing: Management said pricing was driven by depressed global steel demand, record high Chinese steel exports and abundant global supply of steelmaking coal. Source
  • Blue Creek longwall started early: Blue Creek longwall commissioning began in October, eight months ahead of schedule. Source

“Even in these early stages of production and sales, Blue Creek's contributions to our financial results are having a notable impact - which we expect will only increase as the mine continues to ramp up toward full production.”

Walt Scheller, CEO of Warrior

Federal leases and reserves

  • Mining plans cover 14,050 acres: Mining plans approved in Q1 2026 authorize mining across about 14,050 acres in Tuscaloosa County, Alabama, containing about 53 million short tons of reserves. Source
  • Lease payments in five installments: The Q3 release gave a $46.8 million total bid for the leases, payable in five installments, with the first installment of $9.4 million.
  • Leases allow incremental reserves: The lease finalization is described as allowing incremental reserves to be mined at both Blue Creek and Mine No. 4. Source

Cash flow, capital and dividend

  • Operating cash flow rose to $76.1m: Operating cash flow was $76.1 million, compared with $54.2 million a year earlier. Source
  • Working capital rose on receivables: Working capital excluding cash rose $8.0 million, mainly on higher receivables and inventories from the Blue Creek ramp. Source
  • Blue Creek capex drove spending: Blue Creek capital expenditures were $69.1 million in the quarter, bringing project-to-date spending to $956.8 million. Source
  • Free cash flow negative $28.3m: Free cash flow was negative $28.3 million, compared with negative $88.0 million a year earlier, driven by continued Blue Creek development. Source
  • Liquidity and ABL availability: Total liquidity included short-term investments net of collateral and availability under the ABL Facility of $140.5 million. Source
  • Quarterly dividend held at $0.08: Financing outflows in the quarter included a $4.2 million regular quarterly dividend and $8.9 million of lease principal. Full-year 2025 dividends per share were $0.32. Source

2026 volumes and key factors

  • 2026 volumes step up: Management expects 2026 to show a large increase in production and sales, with Blue Creek operating for the full year and continued execution at Mines No. 4 and 7. Source
  • Pricing expected to stay challenging: Management expects pricing to remain challenging in 2026 even as volumes rise, citing the High Vol A quality tier in particular. Source
  • Key factors listed for 2026: Listed factors include longwall moves, HCC index pricing, sales geography and freight rates, trade and tariff policies, a new labor contract and inflationary pressures. Source

Coming up, as management said on 12 February 2026

  • Dividend payment on March 2: Regular quarterly dividend of $0.08 per share planned for payment on March 2, 2026, to holders of record on February 23, 2026. Source
  • Remaining Blue Creek spend by Q1 2026: Remaining Blue Creek amounts are expected to be spent mainly by the end of the first quarter of 2026. Source
  • Four longwall moves in 2026: Management listed four longwall moves for 2026: two in Q2, one in Q3 and one in Q4. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Tons sold, fourth quarter 2025 Source2.9 million short tons (2,883 thousand)
Tons produced, fourth quarter 2025 Source3.4 million short tons
Blue Creek tons sold, fourth quarter 2025 Source881 thousand short tons
Blue Creek tons produced, fourth quarter 2025 Source1.3 million short tons
Inventory, December 31, 2025 Source1.6 million short tons
Cash cost of sales per short ton, fourth quarter 2025 Source$93.53
Average net selling price, fourth quarter 2025 Source$129.60 per short ton

Risks management discussed

  • External: Management cites global trade and tariff uncertainties, along with steel and steelmaking coal market conditions, as factors that may affect 2026 results. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Met: Full-year 2025 sales volumes were at the high end of the guidance range. Source
  • Ahead: Full-year 2025 production exceeded guidance, which management attributed to the early longwall startup at Blue Creek. Source
  • Ahead: Full-year 2025 cash cost per short ton was better than the guidance range. Source
  • Met: Full-year 2025 depreciation and depletion was at the low end of the guidance range. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.