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Warrior MET Coal, Inc.: Q2 FY2026 earnings call

What management said about Q2 FY2026, from the documents filed with the SEC on 5 August 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 2 raised, 1 lowered, 6 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Sales volumes reach record 3.7 million tons: Achieved record quarterly sales volumes for fourth consecutive quarter of 3.7 million short tons, up 65% from 2.2 million short tons in Q2 2025, driven primarily by Blue Creek steelmaking coal sales contribution. Source
  • Total revenues grow 71 percent: Total revenues reached $509.7 million in Q2 2026 compared to $297.5 million in Q2 2025, reflecting 65% increase in sales volumes combined with 6% increase in average net selling price to $137.82 per short ton. Source
  • Production volumes increase 45 percent: Company produced 3.3 million short tons of steelmaking coal in Q2 2026, up 45% from 2.3 million short tons in Q2 2025, with Blue Creek mine driving significant portion of production increase. Source
  • Blue Creek customers responding positively: Blue Creek continues as important performance contributor, adding incremental earnings and cash flow as customers respond positively to the coal offering through volume trials and commercial adoption. Source
  • Cash cost per ton down 9 percent: Cash cost of sales per short ton decreased 9% to $92.53 in Q2 2026 from $101.17 in Q2 2025, driven primarily by inherently lower cost structure of Blue Creek and benefit from Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit, offsetting higher variable costs from elevated coal prices. Source
  • Adjusted EBITDA surges 193 percent: Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026 was $156.9 million with 30.8% margin, up 193% from $53.6 million with 18.0% margin in Q2 2025, reflecting record volumes, improved pricing and lower operating costs despite challenging market conditions. Source
  • Net income reaches $87.4 million: Net income for Q2 2026 was $87.4 million or $1.65 per diluted share, compared to $5.6 million or $0.11 per diluted share in Q2 2025, driven by record volumes, margin expansion and improved operating performance. Source
  • Free cash flow turns positive at $103.4M: Free cash flow improved to $103.4 million in Q2 2026 from negative $56.7 million in Q2 2025, reflecting improved operating cash flow and lower capital spending following completion of Blue Creek construction phase. Source
  • Operating cash flow reaches $132.3M: Cash provided by operating activities was $132.3 million in Q2 2026, more than triple the $37.5 million generated in Q2 2025, driven by higher earnings and improved operating performance. Source
  • Capital spending drops 81 percent: Cash used in investing activities for capital expenditures and mine development was $18.3 million in Q2 2026 compared to $94.3 million in Q2 2025, as Blue Creek construction phase completed in first quarter 2026. Source
  • Development spending phase concluded: Blue Creek mine completed construction with final investment of $66.1 million in first quarter 2026, bringing total project spending to $1,022.9 million and marking end of development phase.
  • Focus shifts to cash generation phase: Second quarter marked start of next growth phase focused on free cash flow generation, balance sheet strength and long-term stockholder returns, with Blue Creek operational and development spending complete. Source

“We delivered record sales volumes, improved pricing and a lower-cost profile in the second quarter, driving significant margin expansion and generating more than $103 million of free cash flow.”

Walt Scheller, CEO

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Coal sales Sourcefull year 202613.0 - 14.0 million short tonsRaised from 12.5 - 13.5 million short tons
Coal production Sourcefull year 202612.5 - 13.5 million short tonsRaised from 12.0 - 13.0 million short tons
Cash cost of sales Sourcefull year 2026$95 - $105 per short tonLowered from $95 - $110 per short ton
Capital expenditures for sustaining existing mines Sourcefull year 2026$105 - $115 millionKept
Capital expenditures for Blue Creek project Sourcefull year 2026$50 - $75 millionKept
Depreciation and depletion Sourcefull year 2026$225 - $250 millionKept
Selling, general and administrative expenses Sourcefull year 2026$75 - $85 millionKept
Interest expense Sourcefull year 2026$20 - $25 millionKept
Interest income Sourcefull year 2026$3 - $8 millionKept

What changed from last quarter

  • Guidance raised: Sales volume guidance raised by 0.5 million short tons to 13.0 - 14.0 million tons for full year 2026, reflecting continued positive customer reception of Blue Creek coal trials and adoption. Source
  • Guidance raised: Production volume guidance raised by 0.5 million short tons to 12.5 - 13.5 million tons for full year 2026 to reflect Blue Creek operational performance. Source
  • Guidance lowered: Cash cost of sales upper bound tightened from $110 to $105 per short ton, reflecting Blue Creek lower cost structure and Section 45X tax credit benefit. Source
  • New: Company entered new phase of growth focused on free cash flow generation, balance sheet strength and long-term stockholder returns, with Blue Creek now operational and development spending complete. Source

Record Sales Volumes and Revenue Growth

  • Sales volumes reach record 3.7 million tons: Achieved record quarterly sales volumes for fourth consecutive quarter of 3.7 million short tons, up 65% from 2.2 million short tons in Q2 2025, driven primarily by Blue Creek steelmaking coal sales contribution. Source
  • Total revenues grow 71 percent: Total revenues reached $509.7 million in Q2 2026 compared to $297.5 million in Q2 2025, reflecting 65% increase in sales volumes combined with 6% increase in average net selling price to $137.82 per short ton. Source

Blue Creek Ramp-up and Production Growth

  • Production volumes increase 45 percent: Company produced 3.3 million short tons of steelmaking coal in Q2 2026, up 45% from 2.3 million short tons in Q2 2025, with Blue Creek mine driving significant portion of production increase. Source
  • Blue Creek customers responding positively: Blue Creek continues as important performance contributor, adding incremental earnings and cash flow as customers respond positively to the coal offering through volume trials and commercial adoption. Source
  • Inventory levels decline to 1.4 million tons: Inventory levels decreased to 1.4 million short tons as of June 30, 2026, from 1.9 million short tons as of March 31, 2026, indicating strong sales demand and efficient production management. Source

“Blue Creek continues to be an important contributor to our performance, adding incremental earnings and cash flow as customers respond positively to our offering.”

Walt Scheller, CEO

Cost Reduction and Margin Expansion

  • Cash cost per ton down 9 percent: Cash cost of sales per short ton decreased 9% to $92.53 in Q2 2026 from $101.17 in Q2 2025, driven primarily by inherently lower cost structure of Blue Creek and benefit from Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit, offsetting higher variable costs from elevated coal prices. Source
  • Adjusted EBITDA surges 193 percent: Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026 was $156.9 million with 30.8% margin, up 193% from $53.6 million with 18.0% margin in Q2 2025, reflecting record volumes, improved pricing and lower operating costs despite challenging market conditions. Source

Net Income and Earnings Per Share

  • Net income reaches $87.4 million: Net income for Q2 2026 was $87.4 million or $1.65 per diluted share, compared to $5.6 million or $0.11 per diluted share in Q2 2025, driven by record volumes, margin expansion and improved operating performance. Source
  • Income tax rate normalizes: Income tax expense was $3.7 million on pre-tax income of $91.1 million in Q2 2026, compared to $4.3 million on pre-tax income of $9.9 million in Q2 2025, reflecting higher profitability and normalized tax rate. Source

“With Blue Creek operational and our development spending complete, this second quarter marked the start of the next phase of Warrior's growth, which is focused on free cash flow generation, balance sheet strength and long-term stockholder returns.”

Walt Scheller, CEO

Free Cash Flow Generation and Liquidity

  • Free cash flow turns positive at $103.4M: Free cash flow improved to $103.4 million in Q2 2026 from negative $56.7 million in Q2 2025, reflecting improved operating cash flow and lower capital spending following completion of Blue Creek construction phase. Source
  • Operating cash flow reaches $132.3M: Cash provided by operating activities was $132.3 million in Q2 2026, more than triple the $37.5 million generated in Q2 2025, driven by higher earnings and improved operating performance. Source
  • Total liquidity reaches $452.9 million: Total liquidity as of June 30, 2026 was $452.9 million, consisting of cash and equivalents of $302.3 million, short-term investments of $10.1 million and available ABL facility borrowing capacity of $140.5 million net of letters of credit. Source

Capital Expenditures and Blue Creek Completion

  • Capital spending drops 81 percent: Cash used in investing activities for capital expenditures and mine development was $18.3 million in Q2 2026 compared to $94.3 million in Q2 2025, as Blue Creek construction phase completed in first quarter 2026. Source
  • Development spending phase concluded: Blue Creek mine completed construction with final investment of $66.1 million in first quarter 2026, bringing total project spending to $1,022.9 million and marking end of development phase.
  • Depreciation and depletion increase: Depreciation and depletion expenses for Q2 2026 were $58.3 million or 11.4% of revenues, compared to $43.3 million or 14.5% in Q2 2025, primarily due to depreciation on additional Blue Creek assets placed in service and higher sales volumes. Source

Strategic Transition and Shareholder Returns

  • Focus shifts to cash generation phase: Second quarter marked start of next growth phase focused on free cash flow generation, balance sheet strength and long-term stockholder returns, with Blue Creek operational and development spending complete. Source
  • Quarterly dividend declared at $0.08: Board declared regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.08 per share on July 28, 2026, to be distributed August 17, 2026, maintaining consistent shareholder return policy. Source
  • Low-cost assets position company well: With strong and low-cost assets now fully operational and construction capital expenditures behind the company, Warrior is well positioned for future value creation in current market environment.

Coming up, as management said on 5 August 2026

  • Longwall moves planned through year-end: Company has planned three additional longwall moves before year-end 2026: two in Q3 and one in Q4, following one move completed in Q2, which will affect quarterly production and timing. Source
  • Further Blue Creek volume adoption expected: Company expects continued positive reception of Blue Creek coal through further volume trials and customer adoption supporting raised full-year volume guidance. Source

Risks management discussed

  • Demand: Steelmaking coal markets experience regional demand and supply fluctuations; global trade policies and tariffs could disrupt demand. Source
  • Financial: Company must comply with covenants in ABL facility and indenture for senior secured notes; failure could restrict financing and operations. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Met: Company completed Blue Creek mine construction in first quarter 2026 with final investment of $66.1 million, bringing total project spending to $1,022.9 million as previously guided.
  • Met: Blue Creek mine completed development ahead of schedule and fully in line with capital expenditure guidance as stated in first quarter 2026.

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.