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Warrior MET Coal, Inc.: Q3 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q3 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 5 November 2025: press release. Guidance figures: 3 raised, 1 lowered, 1 new, 7 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Net income and Adjusted EBITDA declined: Net income was $36.6 million, or $0.70 per diluted share, against $41.8 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $70.6 million against $78.5 million. Source
  • Full-year volume guidance raised: Management raised full-year production volume guidance by about 10% and increased sales volume guidance, citing the accelerated Blue Creek longwall startup. Source
  • Index price down 13% year on year: Management tied the decline to lower index pricing for premium low-vol steelmaking coal, which was 13% below the prior year quarter. Source
  • Cash cost per ton fell 18%: Cash cost per short ton was $100.73, against $123.45. Management attributed the decline to lower prices affecting variable costs, cost control, efficiency and the lower-cost Blue Creek mix. Source
  • Blue Creek longwall started early: Longwall operations began in October, eight months ahead of schedule. Management said the project remained on budget. Source
  • Federal lease sale won: Warrior was the successful bidder, learned at the end of the quarter, in a federal coal lease sale run by the Bureau of Land Management. Source
  • Operating cash flow rose: Operating cash flow was $104.7 million, up from $62.2 million a year earlier. Source
  • Free cash flow negative on Blue Creek: Free cash flow was negative $19.5 million, against negative $60.6 million a year earlier. Management cited continued Blue Creek development as the main driver. Source

“It is gratifying to see our detailed planning and laser-focused execution result in the successful startup of longwall operations at our transformational Blue Creek mine eight months ahead of schedule, while keeping the overall project on budget”

Walt Scheller, CEO of Warrior

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Coal sales Sourcefull year 20259.2 - 9.6 million short tonsRaised from 8.8 - 9.5 million short tons
Coal production Sourcefull year 20259.4 - 9.8 million short tonsRaised from 8.3 - 9.1 million short tons
Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) per short ton Sourcefull year 2025$105 - $110 per short tonLowered from $110 - $120 per short ton
Blue Creek high-vol A steelmaking coal in 2025 production guidance Sourcefull year 2025approximately 1.8 million short tonsRaised from approximately 1.0 million short tons
Blue Creek total project capital expenditures Sourceproject total$995 million to $1.075 billionNew
Capital expenditures for sustaining existing mines Sourcefull year 2025$90 - $100 millionKept
Capital expenditures for Blue Creek project Sourcefull year 2025$225 - $250 millionKept
Mine development costs for Blue Creek project Sourcefull year 2025$85 - $100 millionKept
Depreciation and depletion Sourcefull year 2025$185 - $210 millionKept
Selling, general and administrative expenses Sourcefull year 2025$65 - $75 millionKept
Interest expense Sourcefull year 2025$10 - $15 millionKept
Interest income Sourcefull year 2025$15 - $20 millionKept

What changed from last quarter

  • Guidance raised: Full-year sales range raised to 9.2 to 9.6 million short tons; production range raised to 9.4 to 9.8 million short tons. Source
  • Guidance raised: Blue Creek high-vol A coal in 2025 production guidance raised to about 1.8 million short tons from about 1.0 million. Source
  • Guidance lowered: Cash cost of sales range lowered to $105 to $110 per short ton from $110 to $120. Source
  • New guidance: Total Blue Creek project capital expenditure range of $995 million to $1.075 billion was not given in the prior release. Source
  • New: Blue Creek longwall startup moved to October 2025, from the early first quarter 2026 timing in the prior release. Source
  • New: Warrior won a federal coal lease sale covering reserves of about 58 million short tons, with a total bid of $46.8 million. Source
  • Guidance kept: Sustaining, Blue Creek capital, mine development, depreciation, SG&A and interest ranges kept at prior levels. Source

Results and growth drivers

  • Net income and Adjusted EBITDA declined: Net income was $36.6 million, or $0.70 per diluted share, against $41.8 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $70.6 million against $78.5 million. Source
  • Revenue held as volume offset price: Total revenues were $328.6 million, against $327.7 million, with higher sales volumes offset by a lower average net selling price. Source
  • Volume growth attributed to Blue Creek: Management attributed the 27% sales volume increase and 17% production increase primarily to the Blue Creek mine. Source
  • Full-year volume guidance raised: Management raised full-year production volume guidance by about 10% and increased sales volume guidance, citing the accelerated Blue Creek longwall startup. Source
  • Tax benefit lifted net income: Income tax was a benefit of $13.7 million on pre-tax income of $22.8 million, against $4.6 million of expense in the prior year quarter. Source

Pricing and market conditions

  • Index price down 13% year on year: Management tied the decline to lower index pricing for premium low-vol steelmaking coal, which was 13% below the prior year quarter. Source
  • Realization fell to 83% of index: Gross realization was about 83% of the Platts Premium Low Vol FOB Australian index, down from 93%, reflecting a higher high-vol A mix and a lower index relativity. Source
  • Net selling price down 21%: Average net selling price per short ton was $135.87, against $171.92 a year earlier. Source
  • Steel demand and exports cited: Management attributed market conditions mainly to depressed global steel demand, excess Chinese steel exports and ample global supply of steelmaking coal. Source

“The early startup of Blue Creek's longwall significantly increases our production capacity and has already begun contributing to revenue and free cash flow.”

Walt Scheller, CEO of Warrior

Costs and cash margin

  • Cash cost per ton fell 18%: Cash cost per short ton was $100.73, against $123.45. Management attributed the decline to lower prices affecting variable costs, cost control, efficiency and the lower-cost Blue Creek mix. Source
  • Cash cost share of revenue rose: Cash cost of sales was $237.2 million, or 74.1% of mining revenues, against 71.8% a year earlier. Source
  • Employee costs lifted SG&A: SG&A was $17.2 million, or 5.2% of total revenues, against $11.5 million a year earlier, due to higher employee-related expenses. Source
  • Depreciation rose with Blue Creek assets: Depreciation and depletion was $43.6 million, or 13.3% of revenues, against $36.6 million, reflecting assets placed into service at Blue Creek and higher volumes. Source

Blue Creek build and operations

  • Blue Creek longwall started early: Longwall operations began in October, eight months ahead of schedule. Management said the project remained on budget. Source
  • Quarter's Blue Creek capital spend: Blue Creek capital expenditures were $64.2 million in the quarter, with project-to-date spending of $887.7 million. Source
  • Belt and preparation plant completed: Installation of the overland clean coal belt and remaining preparation plant modules was completed in October, with significant progress on the barge loadout. Source

“The combination of this acquisition, once it closes, and the continued ramping up of production at Blue Creek positions us to continue to meet sustained global demand for premium steelmaking coal.”

Walt Scheller, CEO of Warrior

Federal coal lease strategy

  • Federal lease sale won: Warrior was the successful bidder, learned at the end of the quarter, in a federal coal lease sale run by the Bureau of Land Management. Source
  • Leases add 58 million tons of reserves: The leases cover about 14,050 acres in Tuscaloosa County, Alabama, adjacent to existing infrastructure, which management said allows integration into current operations. Source
  • Bid and first installment: The total bid was $46.8 million. The first of five installments of $9.4 million was paid in the quarter. Source
  • Regulatory steps before lease agreement: Management said several regulatory and administrative steps remain before the company enters a lease agreement with the Bureau of Land Management. Source
  • Possible added life for Mine 4 and Blue Creek: Management said access to additional resources could add further life to Mine 4 and Blue Creek beyond the 58 million tons. Source

Cash, liquidity and returns

  • Operating cash flow rose: Operating cash flow was $104.7 million, up from $62.2 million a year earlier. Source
  • Working capital released cash: Net working capital excluding cash fell by $30.7 million from the prior quarter, mainly through lower receivables and higher accrued expenses. Source
  • Free cash flow negative on Blue Creek: Free cash flow was negative $19.5 million, against negative $60.6 million a year earlier. Management cited continued Blue Creek development as the main driver. Source
  • Liquidity above $500 million: Liquidity included $140.5 million of available ABL Facility capacity, net of $2.5 million in outstanding letters of credit. Source
  • Financing outflow from leases and dividend: Financing activities used $17.8 million, mainly lease principal repayments of $13.5 million and a $4.2 million regular dividend. Source

Coming up, as management said on 5 November 2025

  • Full production targeted for early 2026: Commissioning toward full production is expected to be completed in early 2026, following the October longwall start. Source
  • Remaining Blue Creek spend by Q1 2026: Spending on the remaining Blue Creek project amounts is timed to end in the first quarter of 2026. Source
  • One more longwall move this year: Management listed one more planned longwall move before year end as a factor for full-year 2025 expectations. Source
  • Lease agreement pending agency steps: Management said it is working with agencies to reach a lease agreement with the Bureau of Land Management. Source
  • Dividend payment date set: The $0.08 regular quarterly dividend is planned for distribution on November 14, 2025, to holders of record on November 7. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Tons sold Source2,355 thousand short tons
Tons produced Source2,249 thousand short tons
Blue Creek tons sold Source378 thousand short tons
Blue Creek tons produced Source175 thousand short tons
Inventory Source1.1 million short tons at September 30, 2025

Risks management discussed

  • Financial: Net interest income declined as cash balances and earned rates fell, while interest on new leased equipment raised interest expense. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Ahead: The longwall started in October, which management described as eight months ahead of schedule. Source
  • On track: Management said it remains on budget for the Blue Creek project and expects total capital expenditures in the stated range. Source
  • Not stated: Management expects commissioning toward full production to be completed in early 2026. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.