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Greif, Inc.: Q4 FY2026 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2026, from the documents filed with the SEC on 6 November 2026: press release, call transcript. Guidance figures: 1 raised, 12 new, 2 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Fiscal adjusted EBITDA rose 11.7%: Fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA reached $625.7 million, up from $560.0 million. Management attributed the gain to cost actions rather than a market recovery. Source
  • Quarter adjusted EBITDA down 3.1%: Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $163.0 million, down 3.1%. The prior-year quarter included $18.2 million of incentive accrual reductions; excluding that, adjusted EBITDA rose $13 million. Source
  • Polymers and metals volumes fell 2.3%: Primary product volumes in polymers and metals each fell about 2.3% year over year in the fourth quarter. Source
  • Low-end guidance builds in headwinds: Management said fiscal 2027 guidance is low-end: headwinds are included, and tailwinds are counted only when known and highly likely. Source
  • Free cash flow below guidance range: Fiscal 2026 adjusted free cash flow was $279.3 million, below the most recent guidance range, with elevated inventory and higher resin costs cited. Source
  • Leverage cut to 1.2x: Management said leverage fell from 3.5x to 1.2x at year-end. Source
  • Sweetwater profitable URB moves to other mills: The CEO said the profitable URB part of the Sweetwater volume moves to other mills, and demand for that business has been solid. Source

“We delivered a strong fiscal 2026, growing adjusted EBITDA by nearly 12% despite continued weakness in global industrial markets”

Ole Rosgaard, Chief Executive Officer

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Adjusted EBITDA Sourcefiscal 2027$645 millionNew
Adjusted free cash flow Sourcefiscal 2027$290 millionNew
Capital expenditures Sourcefiscal 2027$185 millionNew
Cost optimization, cumulative run-rate savings Sourceend of fiscal 2027$150 millionRaised from at least $120 million
Volume, metals Sourcefiscal 2027$11 million headwind; low single-digit declines in metalsNew
Volume, polymers, fiber and closures Sourcefiscal 2027flatNew
SG&A Sourcefiscal 2027$15 million net headwindNew
Envaplast ownership and Sweetwater closure Sourcefiscal 2027$10 million tailwindNew
Transportation and other non-raw material cost inflation Sourcefiscal 2027$20 million headwindNew
Currency Sourcefiscal 2027$5 million headwindNew
Free cash flow bridge items Sourcefiscal 2027cash interest $50 million; cash taxes $80 million; $40 million restructuring and pensionNew
Working capital Sourcefiscal 2027flatNew
First-quarter share of EBITDA Sourcefiscal 2027 Q1approximately 20% of total EBITDA guidanceNew
Leverage Sourceongoingbelow 2xKept
Share repurchases Sourcelong-termapproximately 2% annuallyKept

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: Fiscal 2027 low-end guidance issued for adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow; the prior quarter gave fiscal 2026 ranges. Source
  • Guidance raised: Cost optimization target raised from at least $120 million to $150 million cumulative run-rate savings by the end of fiscal 2027. Source
  • New: Announced exit from the Coated Recycled Board business, with closure of the Sweetwater paperboard mill in Austell, GA. Source
  • Guidance kept: Capital allocation framework is unchanged as the company enters fiscal 2027. Source

Fiscal 2026 results and growth drivers

  • Fiscal adjusted EBITDA rose 11.7%: Fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA reached $625.7 million, up from $560.0 million. Management attributed the gain to cost actions rather than a market recovery. Source
  • Fiscal adjusted EPS rose 73%: Net income excluding adjustments rose 73.3% to $231.9 million, or $4.04 per diluted Class A share, from $133.8 million, or $2.31, a year earlier. Source
  • Cost actions lifted margins: Management said $105 million of annual run-rate savings was achieved and adjusted EBITDA margins expanded about 160 basis points. Source

Fourth quarter results and segments

  • Quarter adjusted EBITDA down 3.1%: Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $163.0 million, down 3.1%. The prior-year quarter included $18.2 million of incentive accrual reductions; excluding that, adjusted EBITDA rose $13 million. Source
  • Reported Q4 net loss narrowed: Q4 net loss was $6.5 million, or $0.11 per diluted Class A share, compared with a $24.3 million net loss, or $0.42 per share, a year earlier. Source
  • Polymer sales rose on pricing: Customized Polymer Solutions net sales rose $39.2 million to $361.9 million, mainly from $40.0 million of higher average selling prices, partly offset by lower volumes. Source
  • Metals adjusted EBITDA slipped: Durable Metal Solutions adjusted EBITDA fell $0.8 million to $56.2 million on higher SG&A, with net sales of $392.5 million. Source
  • Fiber operating loss on mill closure: Sustainable Fiber Solutions posted a $21.4 million operating loss, mainly from impairments tied to the Sweetwater mill closure; adjusted EBITDA was $52.0 million. Source
  • Closures gross margin expanded sharply: Innovative Closure Solutions gross profit rose about 40% on price, mix and variable cost management, with gross margin up 490 basis points. Source

“We are not depending on an industrial recovery to improve Greif.”

Ole G. Rosgaard, President, CEO & Director

Demand, volumes and customers

  • Polymers and metals volumes fell 2.3%: Primary product volumes in polymers and metals each fell about 2.3% year over year in the fourth quarter. Source
  • Smaller containers saw destocking: Smaller polymer containers saw customer destocking, which management linked to resin costs and a weak agricultural season; the destocking was described as isolated to Q4. Source
  • Over 4,000 new customers won: The commercial organization won more than 4,000 new logos during the year, according to the CEO. Source
  • Data-center-linked customer volume jumped: The CEO cited a water-treatment chemical customer tied to data centers, whose volume is up 200% year over year after a large new contract. Source
  • Europe weaker than rest: The CFO said business outside data-center exposure is down with the broader industrial economy, and that Europe is a little worse. Source

Margins, costs and pricing

  • Quarter margin up about 60 basis points: Adjusted EBITDA margin rose about 60 basis points year over year, which management attributed to disciplined price/cost management and structural cost optimization. Source
  • Fiber price increase recognized late: Fiber profit improved sequentially but remains below prior year, partly because the June $60 per ton price increase was recognized late, in September. Source
  • Polymer gross margin fell: Customized Polymer gross profit percent declined on product mix and higher resin costs, even as sales rose on pricing. Source

“Importantly, this is a working capital timing impact rather than a structural change in our cash generation capabilities.”

Lawrence Allen Hilsheimer, Executive VP & CFO

Fiscal 2027 guidance approach

  • Low-end guidance builds in headwinds: Management said fiscal 2027 guidance is low-end: headwinds are included, and tailwinds are counted only when known and highly likely. Source
  • Flat demand assumed for the year: Management assumes demand stays flat, as recently experienced, and did not forecast a full-year demand trend. Source
  • Price/cost drives the EBITDA build: The remaining EBITDA benefit relies on price/cost in polymers and metals, based on current raw material trends and continued pricing discipline. Source

Cash flow and working capital

  • Free cash flow below guidance range: Fiscal 2026 adjusted free cash flow was $279.3 million, below the most recent guidance range, with elevated inventory and higher resin costs cited. Source
  • Quarter cash flow shows containerboard base: Q4 adjusted free cash flow fell $89 million year over year, mainly because prior-year containerboard cash flows were included and cash taxes were higher. Source
  • Q4 operating cash flow turned positive: Q4 operating cash flow was a $126.0 million source, against a prior-year use, because the prior year included about $381.0 million of tax on the containerboard sale. Source
  • Higher inventory kept for supply: Management chose to keep higher inventory during Middle East supply disruption, which raised working capital and tied up cash. Source

Capital, debt and shareholder returns

  • Total debt reduced after timberlands sale: Total debt fell $106.2 million to $1,096.3 million, mainly from repayments tied to the timberlands sale; net debt was $800.9 million. Source
  • Leverage cut to 1.2x: Management said leverage fell from 3.5x to 1.2x at year-end. Source
  • Buybacks of $225 million in fiscal 2026: The company repurchased $225 million of shares in fiscal 2026, about 6% of shares outstanding. Source
  • Quarterly dividend held at prior rate: Board declared quarterly dividends of $0.62 per Class A share and $0.93 per Class B share on August 25, totaling about $35.1 million. Source
  • Maintenance capex about $85 million: The IR head said maintenance capex is about $85 million a year, plus $5 million to $10 million for safety; the rest goes to organic growth projects. Source

Portfolio, strategy and long-term goals

  • Sweetwater profitable URB moves to other mills: The CEO said the profitable URB part of the Sweetwater volume moves to other mills, and demand for that business has been solid. Source
  • Priorities centered on growth and cost: Management listed priorities: winning new customers, growing share with existing customers, investing in polymers and closures, and cutting structural costs. Source
  • Portfolio seen as complete: The CEO said the company is happy with its current portfolio, with leading positions across businesses and growth room in polymers and closures. Source
  • Normalized EBITDA near $750 million: The CFO put normalized EBITDA near $750 million after removing containerboard and Soterra and adding acquisitions, noting that inflation offsets higher volumes. Source

Coming up, as management said on 6 November 2026

  • Fiber price increase reaches P&L: Full benefit of the June $60 per ton fiber price increase is expected to flow through the P&L in the second quarter of fiscal 2027. Source
  • Expects to exceed low-end guidance: The CFO said the expectation is that results exceed the low-end guidance, citing commercial efforts. Source
  • Inventory expected to normalize: Management expects inventory levels to normalize during fiscal 2027, while the low-end guidance assumes offsetting working capital inflation. Source
  • Recently won business starting to flow: The CEO said business from recently won customers is starting to come through. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Polymers primary product volume, Q4 year over year Source-2.3%
Metals primary product volume, Q4 year over year Source-2.3%
Closures primary product volume, Q4 year over year Source-3.5%
Fiber primary product volume, Q4 year over year Source+1.3%
New logos won, fiscal 2026 Sourcemore than 4,000
Sweetwater tons removed Source120,000 tons

Risks management discussed

  • Demand: Management said markets have experienced multi-year industrial contraction and no compelling demand inflection has been identified. Source
  • External: Middle East conflict disrupted raw material markets, particularly resin, according to management. Source
  • Financial: Higher inventory and resin costs increased working capital investment and reduced free cash flow relative to prior guidance. Source
  • External: Fiber margins are hit by diesel and transportation costs, because raw material moves into and out of the plant at higher volumes. Source
  • Operational: Labor and medical cost inflation in SG&A is being worked against through cost-out actions, according to the CFO. Source
  • Demand: The agricultural season was weak so far, attributed to weather events and diesel costs. Source
  • Demand: The CFO said results outside data-center exposure are down, leaving the rest of the business exposed to the industrial economy. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Met: Management said the original $100 million cost commitment was met a year early. Source
  • Not stated: Management had expected inventory to normalize during the quarter; higher inventory was instead maintained for supply continuity. Source
  • Delayed: Recognition of the June fiber price increase was delayed, with full P&L benefit now expected from fiscal Q2 2027. Source
  • Missed: Fiscal 2026 adjusted free cash flow was below the most recent guidance range, per management. Source
  • Not stated: Management said it remains committed to Investor Day ambitions but is not managing to a headline number or fixed timeline. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.