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Waste Management Inc.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 28 January 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 17 new, 1 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Operating EBITDA grew double digits: Total operating EBITDA grew 13.3% in 2025, and 15.5% on an adjusted basis. Full-year adjusted margin exceeded 30% for the first time. Source
  • Legacy operating EBITDA rose 8.0%: Legacy Business operating EBITDA rose 8.0% in 2025, and margin expanded 90 basis points. Source
  • Core price drove Legacy revenue: Legacy revenue growth came from Collection and Disposal core price of 6.3% and yield of 3.8%, with a focus on customer lifetime value. Source
  • Legacy cost ratio improved 150 bps: Legacy operating expenses as a percentage of revenue improved 150 basis points in 2025. Source
  • 2026 revenue and EBITDA projected: 2026 revenue of $26,425 to $26,625 million, up 5.2% at midpoint, and adjusted operating EBITDA of $8,150 to $8,250 million, up 6.2% on a comparable basis. Source
  • Sustainability EBITDA near $1 billion in 2027: The same combined measure is expected to approach $1 billion in 2027 at current market prices. Source
  • 2026 free cash flow projected higher: 2026 free cash flow is projected at $3,750 to $3,850 million, growth of 29.4% at midpoint. Source
  • About $3.5 billion returned in 2026: Management plans to return about $3.5 billion to shareholders in 2026 through dividends and share repurchases. Source

“2025 was a year of disciplined execution for WM”

Jim Fish, WM’s CEO

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Revenue Source2026$26,425 - $26,625 millionNew
Adjusted operating EBITDA Source2026$8,150 - $8,250 millionNew
Adjusted operating EBITDA margin Source202630.8%-31.0%New
Capital to support the business Source2026$2,450 - $2,550 millionNew
Sustainability growth capital Source2026About $200 millionNew
Free cash flow Source2026$3,750 - $3,850 millionKept
Share repurchases Source2026approximately $2 billionNew
Estimated dividends paid Source2026$1.5 billionNew
Dividend per share Source2026$3.78 (increase of $0.48)New
Solid waste acquisition investment Source2026$100 to $200 millionNew
Leverage ratio Source20262.5x to 3.0x target range
Healthcare Solutions revenue Source2026around 3% growthNew
Solid waste acquisition rollover Source2026about $65 million revenue; $25 million adjusted operating EBITDANew
Sustainability adjusted EBITDA growth Source2026$235 to $255 millionNew
Sustainability adjusted EBITDA Source2027approach $1 billion at current market pricesNew
Single-stream recycled commodity price Source2026about $70 per tonNew
Accretion expense Source2026about $150 millionNew
Renewable natural gas volume and price Source202621 to 22 million MMBtu; blended about $26 per MMBtuNew
Capital for two RNG facilities and one recycling project Source2026about $85 millionNew

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: Full-year 2026 guidance issued for revenue, adjusted operating EBITDA, adjusted margin, capital and free cash flow. Source
  • Guidance kept: 2026 free cash flow guidance of $3,750 to $3,850 million; the third quarter release had said results were expected to approach $3.8 billion. Source
  • New: Accretion expense excluded from operating expense and operating EBITDA beginning in 2026; it remains in income from operations. Source
  • New: Share repurchases to resume in the first quarter of 2026, as announced in December. Source

Full-year and fourth quarter results

  • Revenue rose 14.2% for the year: Full-year revenue was $25,204 million, up 14.2%. Acquisitions contributed 10.7 points and internal revenue growth 3.7 points. Source
  • EPS reported for both periods: Diluted EPS was $1.83 in the fourth quarter ($1.93 adjusted), against $1.48 ($1.70 adjusted) a year earlier. Full-year diluted EPS was $6.70 ($7.50 adjusted), against $6.81 ($7.23). Source
  • Operating EBITDA grew double digits: Total operating EBITDA grew 13.3% in 2025, and 15.5% on an adjusted basis. Full-year adjusted margin exceeded 30% for the first time. Source
  • Fourth quarter margin widened: Fourth quarter operating EBITDA margin was 30.5% as reported and 31.3% adjusted, against 26.7% and 28.9% a year earlier. Source
  • Operating cash flow up 12.1%: Net cash provided by operating activities was $6.04 billion in 2025, an increase of 12.1% from the prior year. Source

Legacy Business and Healthcare Solutions

  • Legacy operating EBITDA rose 8.0%: Legacy Business operating EBITDA rose 8.0% in 2025, and margin expanded 90 basis points. Source
  • Legacy gains credited to price and cost: Management attributed Legacy results to organic price-driven growth, cost initiatives, business mix and sustainability growth investments. Source
  • Healthcare Solutions margin improved: Healthcare Solutions margin improved to 13.5% in 2025, from 1.0% in 2024. Source
  • Healthcare revenue reached $2.5 billion: Healthcare Solutions revenue was $615 million in the fourth quarter and $2,508 million for 2025. Source

“We delivered record performance in operating expenses as a percentage of revenue for both the fourth quarter and the full year”

Jim Fish, WM’s CEO

Collection and disposal pricing and volume

  • Core price drove Legacy revenue: Legacy revenue growth came from Collection and Disposal core price of 6.3% and yield of 3.8%, with a focus on customer lifetime value. Source
  • Collection volume nearly flat: Collection and Disposal volume was up 0.1%, or 0.3% workday adjusted, including 50 basis points from wildfire cleanup. Source
  • Legacy revenue growth by period: Legacy Business revenue was $5,698 million in the fourth quarter, up 3.8%, and $22,696 million for 2025, up 4.8%. Source

Operating costs, SG&A and impairments

  • Legacy cost ratio improved 150 bps: Legacy operating expenses as a percentage of revenue improved 150 basis points in 2025. Source
  • Labor, fleet and residential drove savings: The adjusted 160 basis point improvement was attributed to front-line employee retention and fleet capital investment, plus residential collection efforts. Source
  • Legacy SG&A ratio edged lower: Legacy SG&A as a percentage of revenue improved 20 basis points for the full year, or 10 basis points on an adjusted basis. Source
  • Healthcare SG&A ratio fell sharply: Healthcare Solutions SG&A as a percentage of revenue improved to 22.8% in 2025, from 38.5% in 2024. Source
  • Impairments and divestiture losses rose: Losses from divestitures, asset impairments and unusual items were $248 million in 2025, against $82 million in 2024. Source

“we expect to grow free cash flow by nearly 30% at the midpoint of our guidance”

Jim Fish, WM’s CEO

Sustainability projects and commodity prices

  • 2025 sustainability projects completed: During 2025 the company completed seven renewable natural gas facilities and nine recycling automation and growth projects. Source
  • Recycled commodity prices fell: Blended single-stream recycled commodity price averaged about $62 per ton in the fourth quarter, against about $87 a year earlier. Source
  • About $85 million for three projects: About $85 million of 2026 capital covers two recently approved renewable natural gas facilities and one recycling growth project. Source

2026 guidance and drivers

  • 2026 revenue and EBITDA projected: 2026 revenue of $26,425 to $26,625 million, up 5.2% at midpoint, and adjusted operating EBITDA of $8,150 to $8,250 million, up 6.2% on a comparable basis. Source
  • Margin projected to expand: Adjusted operating EBITDA margin of 30.8% to 31.0% is projected to expand 30 basis points on a comparable basis. Source
  • Revenue assumes price, yield and volume: Revenue growth assumes core price of 5.4% to 5.8%, yield of 3.2% to 3.6% and volume of 0.2% to 0.6%. Source
  • Sustainability EBITDA to grow in 2026: Recycling, renewable energy and landfill gas royalty adjusted EBITDA together is projected to grow $235 million to $255 million in 2026. Source
  • Sustainability EBITDA near $1 billion in 2027: The same combined measure is expected to approach $1 billion in 2027 at current market prices. Source
  • Healthcare revenue expected up about 3%: Healthcare Solutions revenue is projected to grow around 3%, driven primarily by price. Source

Capital, cash and shareholder returns

  • 2025 free cash flow up 26.8%: Free cash flow for 2025 was $2.94 billion, an increase of 26.8% from the prior year. Source
  • 2026 free cash flow projected higher: 2026 free cash flow is projected at $3,750 to $3,850 million, growth of 29.4% at midpoint. Source
  • Capital to support business reduced: Capital to support the business is projected at $2,450 to $2,550 million, a reduction of about $100 million. Source
  • About $3.5 billion returned in 2026: Management plans to return about $3.5 billion to shareholders in 2026 through dividends and share repurchases. Source
  • Leverage target of 2.5x to 3.0x: Management is committed to returning the leverage ratio to the 2.5x to 3.0x target during the year. Source
  • About $400 million in 2025 acquisitions: The company invested about $400 million in acquisitions in 2025 for solid waste and recycling businesses. Source

Strategy, integration and people

  • Healthcare integration completed in Q4: Healthcare Solutions was integrated into the existing field management and operating structure during the fourth quarter. Source
  • Integration benefits expected from 2026: Management expects the integration step to benefit customer engagement, cross-selling and operating cost optimization from 2026. Source
  • Team credited for results: Management credited the team's focus and drive for the year's results and for a foundation going into 2026. Source
  • Investor Day estimates not reaffirmed: The June 2025 Investor Day estimates were not reissued or affirmed in this release. Source

Coming up, as management said on 28 January 2026

  • 2026 sustainability project completions: Six renewable natural gas plants and four recycling projects are expected to be completed during 2026. Source
  • Projects contributing EBITDA by 2028: Two renewable natural gas facilities and one recycling project are expected to contribute operating EBITDA by 2028. Source
  • 2027 estimates with fourth quarter 2026 results: Management said it would next comment on 2027 estimates when it issues annual guidance with fourth quarter 2026 results. Source

In management's words

“we’re confident in our ability to achieve our 2026 outlook as we continue to grow our sustainability and healthcare solutions businesses”

Jim Fish, WM’s CEO

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Capital plan Source$2,450 - $2,550 million capital to support the business in 2026, a reduction of about $100 million

Risks management discussed

  • Demand: The 2026 volume projection must overcome a 50 basis point wildfire volume headwind carried over from 2025. Source
  • Operational: A $162 million impairment was recorded for a plastic film and wrap recycling business that management decided to temporarily suspend. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Met: Management said the targeted integration was achieved during the fourth quarter. Source
  • Not stated: Management said it has executed on its strategic investment portfolio and expects almost all run-rate contributions in 2027. Source
  • Not stated: Management described substantial progress toward the long-term SG&A alignment objective for Healthcare Solutions. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.