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NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 12 February 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 2 raised, 3 new, 3 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • GAAP EPS fell to $2.94: Full-year net income was $181.1 million, or $2.94 per diluted share, against $3.65 in 2024. Management attributed the decline mainly to higher operating expenses, including the YCGS charge, merger costs, and depreciation. Source
  • Adjusted EPS rose to $3.58: Adjusted non-GAAP diluted EPS was $3.58 for 2025, against $3.40 in 2024. Adjusted non-GAAP net income was $220.1 million, compared with $208.9 million. The reconciliation adds back the YCGS charge and unfavorable weather. Source
  • Non-cash YCGS charge of $30.9 million: The MPSC disallowed part of Yellowstone County Generating Station capital costs. The company recorded a $30.9 million non-cash charge in operating and maintenance and reduced property, plant and equipment by the same amount. Source
  • Close targeted for second half 2026: The all-stock merger of equals with Black Hills is expected to close in the second half of 2026, subject to closing conditions. Applications are filed with the MPSC, NPSC, SDPUC and FERC. Source
  • Colstrip interests acquired January 1: Acquired the Avista interest of 222 MW and the Puget interest of 370 MW in Colstrip Units 3 and 4. The Puget purchase lifts the company's ownership share to 55 percent. Source
  • Data center requests sized at 175 MW: Combined data center requests total 175 MW from late 2027, rising to 1,100 MW or more by 2030. Electric service agreements with Sabey and Atlas are still being negotiated. Source

“We are pleased to report on what has been an exceptionally busy and transformational year for NorthWestern”

Brian Bird, President and Chief Executive Officer

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Non-GAAP diluted EPS Source2026$3.68 to $3.83 per diluted shareNew
Long-term diluted EPS growth SourceLong term (five-year)4% to 6%Kept
Rate base growth Source2026-20304% to 6%Kept
Capital investment plan Source2026-2030$3.2 billionRaised from $2.7 billion for 2025-2029
Effective income tax rate Source202614% to 18%New
Diluted average shares outstanding Source2026approximately 61.7 millionNew
Quarterly common dividend per share SourcePayable March 31, 2026$0.67Raised from $0.66
Dividend payout ratio SourceLong term60-70%Kept

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: First 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance given at $3.68 to $3.83. The prior release gave 2025 guidance of $3.53 to $3.65. Source
  • Guidance raised: Capital plan raised to $3.2 billion for 2026-2030 from the $2.7 billion 2025-2029 plan. Source
  • New: Equity issuance added to the funding plan for South Dakota generation. The prior release said incremental investments may require equity financing. Source
  • New: Form S-4 declared effective in February 2026. The FERC merger application has been filed. Source
  • New: Combined parent company to be named Bright Horizon Energy. Source
  • New: Avista and Puget Colstrip interests acquired January 1, 2026. The prior release said the acquisitions were expected to complete. Source
  • New: MPSC approved the Avista PCCAM tariff waiver on an interim basis in January 2026. The prior release said a decision was expected by Q1 2026. Source
  • New: Development agreement signed with Atlas. The prior release listed a development agreement with Sabey only. Source
  • New: Montana electric and natural gas final rate order issued in December 2025. The rate review was pending in the prior release. Source

Full-year and fourth-quarter results

  • GAAP EPS fell to $2.94: Full-year net income was $181.1 million, or $2.94 per diluted share, against $3.65 in 2024. Management attributed the decline mainly to higher operating expenses, including the YCGS charge, merger costs, and depreciation. Source
  • Adjusted EPS rose to $3.58: Adjusted non-GAAP diluted EPS was $3.58 for 2025, against $3.40 in 2024. Adjusted non-GAAP net income was $220.1 million, compared with $208.9 million. The reconciliation adds back the YCGS charge and unfavorable weather. Source
  • Fourth-quarter GAAP EPS was $0.72: Fourth-quarter net income was $44.7 million, or $0.72 per diluted share, against $1.31 a year earlier. Adjusted diluted EPS for the quarter was $1.17, compared with $1.13. Source
  • Utility margin up 11.2 percent: Consolidated utility margin rose $120.7 million to $1,200.8 million. Higher rates, electric transmission revenue and natural gas transportation revenue drove the increase, partly offset by tracker and supply cost items. Source

Electric and natural gas margins

  • Electric margin up 10.6 percent: Electric utility margin rose $92.3 million to $963.4 million. Volume gains came from South Dakota residential weather and Montana commercial demand, partly offset by Montana weather and lower South Dakota commercial and industrial demand. Source
  • Gas margin up 13.6 percent: Natural gas utility margin rose $28.4 million to $237.4 million. The Energy West acquisition contributed to gas volumes, adding $4.2 million of retail volume margin. Source
  • Supply cost under-collection grew: Under the PCCAM, supply costs were under-collected by $73.9 million for 2025. The 10 percent shareholder share reduced pre-tax earnings by $8.2 million, against $0.9 million in 2024. Source
  • Tracker and supply items reduced margin: Montana property tax tracker collections reduced margin by $14.2 million. Non-recoverable Montana electric supply costs reduced it by $7.3 million. Source

“Throughout 2025, we advanced several major initiatives to support safe, reliable, and affordable service for our customers across Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska.”

Brian Bird, President and Chief Executive Officer

Costs, charges and interest

  • Non-cash YCGS charge of $30.9 million: The MPSC disallowed part of Yellowstone County Generating Station capital costs. The company recorded a $30.9 million non-cash charge in operating and maintenance and reduced property, plant and equipment by the same amount. Source
  • Operating expenses up 15.6 percent: Operating expenses excluding fuel reached $874.9 million, up $118.2 million. Drivers included the YCGS charge, depreciation and electric generation maintenance of $9.9 million. Source
  • Merger costs of $9.3 million: Merger-related costs for 2025 were $9.3 million, mainly consulting and legal fees. They are included in administrative and general expense. Source
  • Insurance cost rose on wildfire premiums: Insurance expense rose $7.8 million, and wildfire mitigation expense rose $8.9 million, partly offset by higher base revenues. Source
  • Interest expense rose to $150.4 million: Interest expense increased from $131.7 million on higher borrowings and interest rates, partly offset by lower AFUDC capitalization. Source

Montana rate review and regulation

  • Final order sets returns and revenue: The final order sets a 9.65 percent electric and 9.60 percent gas return on equity, with a 47.84 percent equity capital structure. Revenue increases are $9.2 million electric and $18.1 million gas. Source
  • PCCAM base reset and sharing suspended: The final order cut the PCCAM base from $208.3 million to $119.0 million. It also suspended the 90/10 sharing mechanism temporarily, pending further MPSC review. Source
  • Reconsideration motion filed in January: The company asked the MPSC to reconsider its prudence conclusions on YCGS capital costs and to set the PCCAM suspension effective July 1, 2025. $7.7 million of base rate revenue is deferred for refund. Source
  • Wildfire law and mitigation plan: House Bill 490, passed in April 2025, limits wildfire claims and sets a standard of care. The MPSC approved the company's wildfire mitigation plan in November 2025. Source

“Our progress this year reflects the dedication of our exceptional employees and the trust of the customers and communities we proudly serve”

Brian Bird, President and Chief Executive Officer

Pending merger with Black Hills

  • Close targeted for second half 2026: The all-stock merger of equals with Black Hills is expected to close in the second half of 2026, subject to closing conditions. Applications are filed with the MPSC, NPSC, SDPUC and FERC. Source
  • Shareholder votes set for April 2: Shareholders of both companies are scheduled to vote on the acquisition on April 2, 2026. Source
  • Regulatory hearings in second quarter: Hearings before the MPSC, NPSC and SDPUC are scheduled for the second quarter of 2026. Source
  • Merger costs excluded from guidance: The 2026 non-GAAP guidance excludes costs of the pending merger, one of its stated major assumptions. Source

Colstrip interests and cost recovery

  • Colstrip interests acquired January 1: Acquired the Avista interest of 222 MW and the Puget interest of 370 MW in Colstrip Units 3 and 4. The Puget purchase lifts the company's ownership share to 55 percent. Source
  • Colstrip costs not yet in rates: Operating costs of the new interests are not collected through base rates until a future Montana rate review. The Avista interest carries about $18.0 million of annual incremental operating and maintenance costs. Source
  • Puget sales contract offsets costs: A contract signed in October 2025 sells Puget interest capacity and energy from January 2026 through late 2027. Revenue is expected to largely offset about $30.0 million of annual added operating and maintenance costs. Source
  • FERC rate refund exposure: If FERC does not approve cost-based rates effective January 1, 2026, the company could incur refund liability on contract revenues received in the unauthorized period. Approval is expected in Q1 2026. Source

Generation, transmission and large loads

  • Data center requests sized at 175 MW: Combined data center requests total 175 MW from late 2027, rising to 1,100 MW or more by 2030. Electric service agreements with Sabey and Atlas are still being negotiated. Source
  • Large-load filing set for first half: An MPSC filing on serving large-load customers is expected in the first half of 2026. Rate design is intended to stop cost shifting to other retail customers. Source
  • South Dakota gas plant proposed: A 131 MW natural gas facility in Aberdeen, South Dakota was submitted to SPP in October 2025 to meet regional capacity needs by 2030. Source
  • North Plains Connector stake planned: A nonbinding memorandum covers 10 percent, or 300 MW, of the North Plains Connector. Construction is planned for 2028, with operation by 2032, subject to approvals and permits. Source

Capital, liquidity, dividend and tax

  • Capital spending funding mix: Capital expenditures are expected to be funded from operating cash flow, credit sources, debt issuances and future rate increases. Source
  • Liquidity at year-end: Total net liquidity was $229.8 million at December 31, 2025, including $8.8 million of cash and $221.0 million of revolver availability. A year earlier it was $191.3 million. Source
  • Dividend record and payment dates: The dividend is payable March 31, 2026 to shareholders of record as of March 13, 2026. Source
  • Minimal cash taxes into 2029: The company has a large net operating loss position and expects to pay minimal cash income taxes into 2029. Source

Coming up, as management said on 12 February 2026

  • Hart-Scott-Rodino filing in Q1 2026: Application for Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust clearance is planned for the first quarter of 2026. Source
  • Merger shareholder votes April 2: Shareholder meetings of both companies are set for April 2, 2026. Source
  • Colstrip wildfire plan decision Q1: An MPSC decision on the Colstrip transmission wildfire mitigation plan is expected in the first quarter of 2026. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
EPS growth target Source4% to 6% long-term diluted EPS growth on a $3.40 2024 adjusted base
Rate base growth Source4% to 6% from about $5.4 billion 2024 base
Capital plan Source$3.2 billion for 2026-2030, 17% above prior plan
Rate case SourceFinal order revenue increase: electric $9.2 million, gas $18.1 million
Customer growth SourceAbout 850,300 customers, up from 842,100 in the prior release
Load growth SourceLarge-load requests of 175 MW from late 2027, up to 1,100 MW or more by 2030

Risks management discussed

  • Regulatory: The MPSC disallowed part of YCGS capital costs, and the company has asked the commission to reconsider its prudence conclusions. Source
  • Regulatory: The 90/10 PCCAM sharing mechanism is suspended temporarily pending further MPSC review. Source
  • Regulatory: Without FERC approval of cost-based Puget rates, the company could face refund liability on contract revenues. Source
  • Financial: Operating costs of the Colstrip interests are not recovered through base rates until a future Montana rate review. Source
  • Financial: Equity issuance is expected from 2027 to fund South Dakota generation investment. Source
  • Operational: Insurance expense is rising on higher wildfire risk premiums. Source
  • External: Weather affected volumes, with unfavorable weather in Montana partly offsetting gains elsewhere. Source
  • Demand: Resources and regulatory mechanisms for large-load requests remain under evaluation. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Met: Management says the acquisitions were completed on January 1, 2026, as previously disclosed. Source
  • Met: The prior release expected a contract signing in Q4 2025. The current release says it was signed in October 2025. Source
  • Met: The prior release expected a final order in Q4 2025. The MPSC issued it in December 2025. Source
  • Met: The prior release expected a decision by Q1 2026. The MPSC approved the waiver on an interim basis in January 2026. Source
  • Not stated: The prior release expected effectiveness by January 1, 2026. The current release now expects it in the first quarter of 2026. Source
  • Not stated: The prior release expected the MPSC filing in Q4 2025. The current release expects it in the first half of 2026. Source
  • Not stated: Management affirmed the 4% to 6% long-term EPS growth rate on the $3.40 2024 base. Source
  • Not stated: Management says it remains committed to the 60-70% payout target over the long term. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.