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NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.: Q3 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q3 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 30 October 2025: press release. Guidance figures: 1 raised, 3 new, 8 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • GAAP EPS fell, adjusted EPS rose: Diluted GAAP EPS was $0.62 against $0.76 a year earlier. Adjusted non-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.79 against $0.65, after excluding unfavorable weather and merger-related costs. Source
  • Net income fell on costs and interest: Net income was $38.2 million against $46.8 million. Higher operating expenses including merger costs and depreciation, higher interest, and a prior-year tax benefit were the main drivers. Source
  • Utility margin rose 16.6 percent: Utility margin was $300.1 million against $257.3 million, an increase of $42.8 million. Interim rates subject to refund contributed $27.1 million of the increase. Source
  • Montana power supply under-collected: Under the PCCAM, the company's 10 percent share of the Montana supply cost variance reduced pre-tax earnings by $2.3 million, against a $0.7 million gain a year earlier. Source
  • Interim rates await final order: Interim rates remain in effect on a refundable basis, with interest, until the MPSC issues its final order. Hearings and briefing on the review are complete. Source
  • All-stock merger of equals: The merger agreement provides for an all-stock merger of equals with Black Hills, subject to the terms and conditions set forth in the agreement. Source
  • Colstrip interests raise ownership: Avista and Puget interests in Colstrip Units 3 and 4 are being acquired for $0, with closing expected January 1, 2026. The Puget interest raises ownership to 55 percent. Source

“We are excited about the announcement of the merger with Black Hills Corporation”

President and CEO, Brian Bird

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Diluted EPS (non-GAAP) Source2025$3.53 - $3.65 per diluted shareKept
Diluted EPS growth Sourcefive-year, from 2024 baseline4% to 6%Kept
Rate base growth Sourcefive-year, from 2024 base year4% to 6%Kept
Capital investment plan Source2025-2029$2.7 billionKept
Capital plan Source2025$531 millionKept
Effective income tax rate Source2025approximately 12%-15%Kept
Diluted average shares outstanding Source2025approximately 61.5 millionKept
Dividend payout ratio Sourcelong term60-70%Kept
Avista Interests operating costs Sourceannual, from January 1, 2026approximately $18.0 millionNew
Puget Interests operating costs Sourceannual, from January 1, 2026$30.0 millionNew
Aberdeen gas generating facility cost Sourcecapacity needed by 2030approximately $300 millionNew
Data center energy service requirement Sourcebeginning late 2027; growth by 2030175 megawatts; up to 1,100 megawatts or more by 2030Raised from 75 megawatts beginning in early 2026; growth of up to 400 megawatts or more by 2030

What changed from last quarter

  • Guidance kept: The 2025 non-GAAP EPS range of $3.53 to $3.65 was initiated in the second quarter release and affirmed in this release with the same range.
  • New: A merger agreement with Black Hills Corporation was entered into on August 18, 2025. This was not in the prior release. Source

Results and growth drivers

  • GAAP EPS fell, adjusted EPS rose: Diluted GAAP EPS was $0.62 against $0.76 a year earlier. Adjusted non-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.79 against $0.65, after excluding unfavorable weather and merger-related costs. Source
  • Net income fell on costs and interest: Net income was $38.2 million against $46.8 million. Higher operating expenses including merger costs and depreciation, higher interest, and a prior-year tax benefit were the main drivers. Source
  • Utility margin rose 16.6 percent: Utility margin was $300.1 million against $257.3 million, an increase of $42.8 million. Interim rates subject to refund contributed $27.1 million of the increase. Source
  • Weather trimmed EPS by 5 cents: Weather below normal reduced pre-tax income by $3.5 million, or $0.05 per diluted share, in the adjusted earnings reconciliation. Source

Segments and regions

  • Electric margin up 16.3 percent: Electric utility margin was $262.6 million against $225.7 million. Retail volumes were helped by weather and customer growth, partly offset by lower commercial and industrial demand. Source
  • Gas margin up 18.7 percent: Gas utility margin was $37.5 million against $31.6 million. The Energy West acquisition, completed July 1, added $1.4 million of natural gas retail volume margin. Source
  • Montana gas weather was unfavorable: Gas volumes benefited from favorable weather in South Dakota and Nebraska and higher commercial demand. Montana weather was unfavorable for gas volumes. Source

“We have submitted merger filing applications in October with regulators in Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska, and anticipate approvals that will enable us to close the transaction in the back half of 2026”

President and CEO, Brian Bird

Operating costs and interest

  • Operating expenses rose 16 percent: Operating expenses excluding fuel were $219.7 million against $189.4 million. Merger costs, depreciation, wildfire mitigation, and insurance were the main increases. Source
  • Merger costs sit in admin expense: Merger-related costs of $7.6 million are within administrative and general expense. They are excluded from adjusted non-GAAP earnings and are not tax deductible. Source
  • Wildfire insurance and mitigation rose: Insurance expense rose on wildfire risk premiums. Wildfire mitigation expense rose $3.8 million, partly offset by higher base revenues. Source
  • Interest expense rose on borrowing: Interest expense was $38.4 million against $33.4 million, reflecting higher borrowings and interest rates and lower capitalization of AFUDC. Source
  • Tax rate moved on prior-year benefit: The effective tax rate was 18.7 percent against negative 7.3 percent, as the prior-year period included a gas repairs safe harbor benefit. Source

Margin and supply cost recovery

  • Gross margin up 23.6 percent: Gross margin was $127.1 million against $102.8 million. The company cited higher retail rates, usage, and electric transmission and gas transportation revenues. Source
  • Montana power supply under-collected: Under the PCCAM, the company's 10 percent share of the Montana supply cost variance reduced pre-tax earnings by $2.3 million, against a $0.7 million gain a year earlier. Source
  • Property tax and supply costs offset: Higher operating and maintenance costs, depreciation, Montana property tax tracker collections, and non-recoverable Montana electric supply costs partly offset the gross margin gain. Source

“while advancing several key initiatives including closing the Energy West transaction, successfully integrating the natural gas distribution assets into our system”

President and CEO, Brian Bird

Montana rate review and interim rates

  • Interim rates await final order: Interim rates remain in effect on a refundable basis, with interest, until the MPSC issues its final order. Hearings and briefing on the review are complete. Source
  • Settlements filed with regulators: A natural gas settlement was filed in March 2025 with certain parties, and a partial electric settlement in April 2025 with other parties. Both need MPSC approval. Source
  • Guidance assumes settlement approval: The 2025 EPS guidance assumes final approval of all material aspects of the company's settlement position in the pending Montana general rate review. Source

Pending Black Hills merger

  • All-stock merger of equals: The merger agreement provides for an all-stock merger of equals with Black Hills, subject to the terms and conditions set forth in the agreement. Source
  • State applications filed in October: Applications for approval of the merger were filed in October with the Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota commissions. Source
  • Merger costs excluded from guidance: The 2025 EPS guidance excludes transaction costs related to the pending merger with Black Hills. Source

Colstrip and generation additions

  • Colstrip interests raise ownership: Avista and Puget interests in Colstrip Units 3 and 4 are being acquired for $0, with closing expected January 1, 2026. The Puget interest raises ownership to 55 percent. Source
  • Avista costs sought through PCCAM: A temporary PCCAM waiver request filed in August 2025 asks to keep 100 percent of designated contract revenue up to the Avista interest operating costs. Source
  • Puget capacity sale planned: A contract to sell dispatchable capacity from the Puget interest is planned for January 2026 through late 2027. A FERC cost-based rate request was submitted in October 2025. Source
  • Aberdeen gas plant proposed to SPP: A 131 MW natural gas facility in Aberdeen, South Dakota was submitted to SPP in October 2025 for construction to meet regional capacity needs by 2030. Source

Customers and data center load

  • Quantica letter of intent signed: A nonbinding letter of intent signed in July 2025 with Quantica Infrastructure is for evaluating transmission and generation needed for its proposed load. Source
  • Sabey development agreement signed: A development agreement has been signed with Sabey. The company is working with each data center party to execute electric service agreements. Source
  • Large-load tariff filing planned: A Montana filing is planned in the fourth quarter of 2025 to address data center development, with rate design to prevent cost shifting to other retail customers. Source

Capital, cash and shareholder returns

  • Liquidity $262.2 million at quarter end: Total net liquidity was $262.2 million, compared with $316.5 million a year earlier, and included $256.0 million of revolving credit availability. Source
  • Capital program funding mix: The capital program is funded through cash from operations and secured debt. Incremental generation or strategic growth investments may require equity financing. Source
  • Quarterly dividend of $0.66 declared: The board declared a $0.66 quarterly dividend, payable December 31, 2025, to holders of record as of December 15, 2025. Source
  • Antidilutive awards excluded from EPS: Performance share awards of 20,406 shares were excluded from the EPS calculation as antidilutive at quarter end. Source

Coming up, as management said on 30 October 2025

  • Merger closing expected second half 2026: Closing is expected in the second half of 2026, subject to the satisfaction or waiver of certain closing conditions. Source
  • FERC merger application in Q4 2025: An application with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for the merger is expected in the fourth quarter of 2025. Source
  • Montana final order in Q4 2025: A final order from the MPSC on the electric and natural gas rate review is expected in the fourth quarter of 2025. Source
  • MPSC decision on Avista waiver: The company expects an MPSC decision on the temporary PCCAM waiver request by the first quarter of 2026. Source
  • Colstrip acquisitions close January 1: Closing of the Avista and Puget Colstrip interest acquisitions is expected January 1, 2026, when operating costs begin. Source
  • Puget FERC rate approval by January 2026: Approval of cost-based rates for the subsidiary owning the Puget interests is expected to be effective by January 1, 2026. Source
  • Capital expenditure forecast update: The capital expenditure forecast is to be updated in the first half of 2026, after the transmission interconnection study is completed. Source
  • Energy West working capital finalization: Post-close working capital adjustments on the Energy West purchase are expected to be finalized in the fourth quarter of 2025. Source
  • Earnings webinar October 30, 2025: An investor webinar to review third quarter 2025 results was scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern time. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Rate cases SourceMontana electric and natural gas rate review pending; final order expected in fourth quarter 2025
Rate base growth Source4% to 6% from approximately $5.4 billion 2024 base
Capital plan Source$2.7 billion for 2025-2029; $531 million for 2025
Customer growth Sourceapproximately 842,100 customers
Load growth Source175 megawatts from late 2027; up to 1,100 megawatts or more by 2030
EPS growth target Source4% to 6% five-year diluted EPS growth from $3.40 baseline

Risks management discussed

  • Regulatory: Interim rates are refundable with interest until the MPSC final order, so the final approved rates determine any refund. Source
  • Financial: Operating costs of the additional Colstrip interests start January 1, 2026, and will not be collected through base rates until requested in a future Montana rate review. Source
  • Financial: The proposed Aberdeen gas facility's capital cost is not in the current five-year capital forecast, which the company expects to update in 2026. Source
  • Demand: Resources and regulatory mechanisms for the data center service requests are still under evaluation and have not been finalized. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Not stated: The second quarter release expected the Colstrip interest acquisitions to complete on December 31, 2025. The third quarter release gives January 1, 2026.
  • Met: The company states the Energy West acquisition was completed for approximately $35.9 million in cash. Source
  • Not stated: The second quarter release expected a wildfire mitigation plan filing with the MPSC in the third quarter of 2025. The third quarter release does not report on this filing.
  • Not stated: The second quarter release expected the rate review outcome early in the fourth quarter. The third quarter release expects a final order during the fourth quarter.

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.