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Moody's Corp.: Q3 FY2026 earnings call

What management said about Q3 FY2026, from the documents filed with the SEC on 21 October 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 1 raised, 1 lowered, 21 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Revenue up 1%, organic up 3%: Third-quarter revenue was $2.0 billion, up 1% from a year earlier and up 3% on an organic constant currency basis. Diluted EPS rose 18% to $4.24. Source
  • MA revenue up 3%, organic 8%: MA revenue rose 3% from the prior-year period, or 8% on an organic constant currency basis. Decision Solutions was flat as reported and up 12% organically. Source
  • Decision Solutions led ARR growth: Total MA ARR reached $3.7 billion, up 8%. Decision Solutions ARR rose 10%, with KYC up 12% and Insurance up 10%. Source
  • MIS revenue down 1%: MIS revenue was $1.1 billion, down 1% against a record prior-year quarter, mainly on lower Leveraged Finance issuance. Source
  • Company margins lower: MCO operating margin was 44.8%, down 90 bps, and adjusted operating margin was 52.6%, down 30 bps from 52.9%. Source
  • Rated issuance volume down 2%: Total MIS rated issuance volume fell 2% and transaction revenue fell 5%. Corporate Finance issuance fell 16%, while Structured Finance and PPIF issuance each rose 16%. Source
  • Operating cash flow up 21%: Year-to-date operating cash flow was $2,471 million, up 21%, and free cash flow was $2,200 million, up 22%. Source
  • Shareholder returns of $3.1 billion: Year-to-date returns were about $3.1 billion, made up of about $2.6 billion of share repurchases and $543 million of dividends. Source

“It’s in markets like these that our customers truly value our independent insights and connected intelligence.”

Rob Fauber, President and Chief Executive Officer, Moody’s Corporation

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Revenue SourceFY2026Increase in the high-single-digit percent rangeKept
Operating expenses SourceFY2026Increase in the mid-single-digit percent rangeKept
Operating margin SourceFY202644% to 45%Kept
Adjusted operating margin SourceFY202652% to 53%Kept
Interest expense, net SourceFY2026$220 to $240 millionKept
Non-operating (expense)/income SourceFY2026$70 to $90 millionKept
Effective tax rate SourceFY202623% to 25%Kept
Diluted EPS SourceFY2026$16.00 to $16.50Kept
Adjusted diluted EPS SourceFY2026$16.50 to $17.00Kept
Operating cash flow SourceFY2026$3.15 to $3.35 billionKept
Free cash flow SourceFY2026$2.7 to $2.9 billionKept
Share repurchases SourceFY2026Up to $3.0 billionKept
Capital expenditures SourceFY2026Approximately $450 millionKept
Incremental capital expenditures for office relocations SourceFY2026Approximately $75-to-$100 million
MA revenue SourceFY2026Increase in the mid-single-digit percent rangeKept
MA organic constant currency revenue SourceFY2026Increase in the high-single-digit percent rangeKept
MA ARR SourceFY2026Increase in the high-single-digit percent rangeKept
MA adjusted operating margin SourceFY202634% to 35%Kept
MIS revenue SourceFY2026Increase in the high-single-digit percent rangeKept
MIS adjusted operating margin SourceFY2026Approximately 65%Kept
Inorganic revenue from acquisitions and divestitures (MA) SourceFY2026Approximately 4%Kept
Gain on business divestitures (adjusted EPS reconciling item) SourceFY2026Approximately ($1.18)
Global speculative-grade default rate (assumption) SourceYear-end 2026Around 3.8% by year-endRaised from Around 3% by year-end
U.S. high yield spreads (assumption) SourceComing quarterAround 300 bpsLowered from Around 330 bps in the coming 2 quarters
Global MIS rated issuance (assumption) SourceFY2026Increase in the mid-single-digit percent rangeKept

What changed from last quarter

  • Guidance kept: Full-year 2026 guidance was reaffirmed; the listed guidance figures are unchanged from the July 22 values. Source
  • Guidance raised: Assumed year-end global speculative-grade default rate moved to around 3.8%, from around 3% in the July assumptions. Source
  • Guidance lowered: Assumed U.S. high yield spread widening is now around 300 bps in the coming quarter, from around 330 bps over two quarters. Source
  • New: Non-operating guidance now describes the MA Regulatory Solutions pre-tax gain as recorded during the nine months ended September 30, 2026. Source

Revenue and earnings growth

  • Revenue up 1%, organic up 3%: Third-quarter revenue was $2.0 billion, up 1% from a year earlier and up 3% on an organic constant currency basis. Diluted EPS rose 18% to $4.24. Source
  • Operating income slightly lower: Operating income was $906 million against $917 million a year earlier, as total expenses rose to $1,117 million from $1,090 million. Source
  • Tax rate lower on benefits: The effective tax rate was 24.0%, against 25.4% a year earlier. The company attributed the lower rate to a statute-of-limitations lapse and non-U.S. tax benefits. Source
  • Nine-month revenue up 8%: Nine-month revenue was $6.3 billion, against $5.8 billion a year earlier, with organic constant currency revenue also up 8%. Source

Moody's Analytics segment

  • MA revenue up 3%, organic 8%: MA revenue rose 3% from the prior-year period, or 8% on an organic constant currency basis. Decision Solutions was flat as reported and up 12% organically. Source
  • Decision Solutions led ARR growth: Total MA ARR reached $3.7 billion, up 8%. Decision Solutions ARR rose 10%, with KYC up 12% and Insurance up 10%. Source
  • Transaction revenue fell sharply: MA transaction revenue fell 76%, mainly from the Learning Solutions divestiture and a continued shift toward recurring revenue. Source
  • Banking down as reported: Banking revenue fell 16% to $118 million as reported, but rose 19% on an organic constant currency basis. Insurance revenue rose 9% to $186 million. Source
  • Research and Data revenue grew: Research and Insights revenue rose 3% to $260 million, and Data and Information rose 7% to $250 million. Source

“Moody’s delivered another quarter of strong profitability and earnings growth, with disciplined execution and healthy cash generation amidst an increasingly complex operating environment.”

Rob Fauber, President and Chief Executive Officer, Moody’s Corporation

Moody's Investors Service segment

  • MIS revenue down 1%: MIS revenue was $1.1 billion, down 1% against a record prior-year quarter, mainly on lower Leveraged Finance issuance. Source
  • Investment Grade revenue up 18%: Investment Grade revenue rose 18%, supported by large corporate financing, notably technology-sector issuance linked to AI-related financing and hyperscaler investment. Source
  • Public infrastructure finance grew: Public, Project and Infrastructure Finance revenue rose 11% to $179 million, driven by U.S. public finance, sovereign and data center financing. Source
  • High yield and leveraged loans fell: High yield revenue fell 40% and leveraged loans fell 27%. Corporate Finance revenue declined 8% to $530 million. Source

Costs and margins

  • Operating expenses up 2%: Operating expenses rose 2%, as growth investments and higher incentive compensation were partly offset by divestitures and cost discipline. Source
  • Company margins lower: MCO operating margin was 44.8%, down 90 bps, and adjusted operating margin was 52.6%, down 30 bps from 52.9%. Source
  • MA margin up 100 bps: MA adjusted operating margin rose to 35.3%, up 100 bps, reflecting revenue growth and continued investment in the business. Source
  • MIS margin down 80 bps: MIS adjusted operating margin was 64.4%, down 80 bps from 65.2% a year earlier. Source
  • Duplicate rent excluded from adjusted: Duplicate rent for the New York headquarters transition was $7 million pre-tax in the quarter and $9 million year to date, excluded from adjusted measures. Source

Demand and issuance

  • Rated issuance volume down 2%: Total MIS rated issuance volume fell 2% and transaction revenue fell 5%. Corporate Finance issuance fell 16%, while Structured Finance and PPIF issuance each rose 16%. Source
  • Structured finance issuance higher: Structured Finance revenue growth came mainly from higher issuance in ABS, RMBS and covered bonds. Source
  • Financial Institutions mixed drivers: Financial Institutions revenue grew on recurring banking revenue and private markets, partly offset by lower banking and insurance transactional revenue. Source

Cash flow and capital returns

  • Operating cash flow up 21%: Year-to-date operating cash flow was $2,471 million, up 21%, and free cash flow was $2,200 million, up 22%. Source
  • Shareholder returns of $3.1 billion: Year-to-date returns were about $3.1 billion, made up of about $2.6 billion of share repurchases and $543 million of dividends. Source
  • Quarterly dividend declared: The Board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.03 per share on October 20, 2026. Source
  • Cash balance lower: Cash and cash equivalents were $1,513 million at September 30, 2026, down from $2,384 million at December 31, 2025. Source

Divestiture gain and interest

  • Regulatory Solutions gain booked: The pre-tax gain on the MA Regulatory Solutions divestiture was $115 million in the quarter and $296 million for the nine months. Source
  • Adjusted EPS excludes divestiture gain: Adjusted diluted EPS excludes a net gain on business divestitures of $0.47 per share for the quarter and $1.18 for the nine months. Source
  • Net interest expense slightly lower: Net interest expense was $54 million in the quarter, against $58 million a year earlier, and $178 million for the nine months. Source

Coming up, as management said on 21 October 2026

  • Dividend payment December 11: The $1.03 quarterly dividend is payable on December 11, 2026, to holders of record at the close of business on November 20, 2026. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Total MA ARR Source$3,688 million
Decision Solutions ARR Source$1,637 million
Total MIS rated issuance volume change Source(2)%

Risks management discussed

  • External: Management says its guidance reflects uncertainty about global GDP growth, international economic conditions, geopolitical events and trade policy. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Not stated: The July release forecast a second-half contingent gain on the transaction; the October release reports the gain as recorded in the nine months.
  • Not stated: The July release raised full-year repurchase guidance to up to $3.0 billion, and the October release keeps that figure.

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.