greeksoup/ stock research

Moodys Corp.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 18 February 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 37 new. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Record full-year revenue of $7.7 billion: Full-year 2025 revenue was $7.7 billion, up 9%, with foreign currency translation adding 1%. Management described the year as record revenue. Source
  • Fourth-quarter revenue up 13%: Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue was $1.9 billion, up 13%, with foreign currency translation adding 2%. Moody's Analytics grew 9% and Moody's Investors Service grew 17%. Source
  • Investors Service grew 17% on AI-related deals: Moody's Investors Service fourth-quarter revenue was $946 million, up 17%, a fourth-quarter record. Corporate Finance growth came from Investment Grade issuance, including several sizable AI-related deals. Source
  • Decision Solutions ARR up 10%: Decision Solutions ARR grew 10%: KYC 15%, Banking 8% and Insurance 7%. Research and Insights ARR grew 8% and Data and Information ARR grew 7%. Source
  • Fourth-quarter margins 40.8% and 48.7%: Operating margin was 40.8% and adjusted operating margin 48.7% in the fourth quarter. Analytics adjusted margin was 35.7%, up 190 basis points; Investors Service was 58.5%, up 720 basis points. Source
  • Issuance surpassed $6.6 trillion: Management cited constructive market conditions through most of 2025, with tightening credit spreads and refinancing demand supporting record issuance levels. Source

“Our 2025 results demonstrate the tremendous demand for Moody’s solutions and our ability to execute with precision and speed.”

Rob Fauber, President and Chief Executive Officer

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
MCO revenue SourceFY2026Increase in the high-single-digit percent rangeNew
MCO operating expenses SourceFY2026Increase in the mid-single-digit percent rangeNew
MCO operating margin SourceFY202645% to 46%New
MCO adjusted operating margin SourceFY202652% to 53%New
Interest expense, net SourceFY2026$210 to $230 millionNew
Non-operating expense (includes net interest) SourceFY2026$180 to $200 millionNew
Effective tax rate SourceFY202623% to 25%New
Diluted EPS SourceFY2026$15.00 to $15.60New
Adjusted diluted EPS SourceFY2026$16.40 to $17.00New
Operating cash flow SourceFY2026$3.25 to $3.45 billionNew
Free cash flow SourceFY2026$2.8 to $3.0 billionNew
Share repurchases SourceFY2026Approximately $2.0 billionNew
Capital expenditures SourceFY2026Approximately $450 millionNew
Depreciation and amortization, share of revenue SourceFY2026Approximately 6%New
Restructuring, share of revenue SourceFY2026Approximately 1%New
Acquisition-related intangible amortization, per diluted share SourceFY2026Approximately $0.90New
Restructuring, per diluted share SourceFY2026Approximately $0.40New
Duplicative rent, New York headquarters, per diluted share SourceFY2026Approximately $0.10New
MA revenue SourceFY2026Increase in the mid-single-digit percent rangeNew
MA revenue, FX impact SourceFY2026Approximately (1%)New
MA revenue, inorganic revenue from acquisitions and divestitures SourceFY2026Approximately 2%New
MA organic constant currency revenue SourceFY2026Increase in the high-single-digit percent rangeNew
MA ARR SourceFY2026Increase in the high-single-digit percent rangeNew
MA adjusted operating margin SourceFY202634% to 35%New
MIS revenue SourceFY2026Increase in the high-single-digit percent rangeNew
MIS adjusted operating margin SourceFY2026Approximately 65%New
U.S. GDP growth (real) Source20261.5% - 2.5%New
Euro area GDP growth (real) Source20261.0% - 2.0%New
Global GDP growth (real) Source20262.0% - 3.0%New
U.S. high yield spreads Sourcenext 12 monthsAround 470 bpsNew
U.S. inflation rate Source20262.0% to 3.0%New
Euro area inflation rate Source2026Around 2.0%New
U.S. unemployment rate Source20264.0% to 5.0%New
Global high yield default rate Sourceyear-end 2026Below 3%New
Global MIS-rated issuance Source2026Increase in the low-single-digit percent rangeNew
GBP/USD exchange rate SourceFY2026$1.35 for the full yearNew
EUR/USD exchange rate SourceFY2026$1.17 for the full yearNew

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: Full-year 2026 guidance appears in these documents; the prior release gave guidance for full-year 2025 only. Source
  • Ended: The MA Learning Solutions business was divested; the cash flow statement shows $40 million received, net of cash transferred to the purchaser. Source
  • New: The quarterly dividend per share changed to $1.03 from $0.94 declared in the prior release. Source

Full-year and fourth-quarter results

  • Record full-year revenue of $7.7 billion: Full-year 2025 revenue was $7.7 billion, up 9%, with foreign currency translation adding 1%. Management described the year as record revenue. Source
  • Fourth-quarter revenue up 13%: Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue was $1.9 billion, up 13%, with foreign currency translation adding 2%. Moody's Analytics grew 9% and Moody's Investors Service grew 17%. Source
  • Fourth-quarter tax rate fell to 11.1%: Fourth-quarter effective tax rate was 11.1%, against 24.8% a year earlier. Management said the tax benefit did not affect diluted or adjusted diluted EPS, because an indemnification asset reversal offset it. Source
  • Full-year diluted EPS up 21%: Full-year 2025 diluted EPS was $13.67, up 21%, and adjusted diluted EPS was $14.94, up 20%. Management attributed the growth to net income gains from revenue growth and margin expansion. Source

Segment results: MA and MIS

  • Analytics grew 9%, 6% organic: Moody's Analytics fourth-quarter revenue was $943 million, up 9% reported and 6% organic constant currency. Decision Solutions grew 12%, Research and Insights 6% and Data and Information 8%, on a reported basis. Source
  • Investors Service grew 17% on AI-related deals: Moody's Investors Service fourth-quarter revenue was $946 million, up 17%, a fourth-quarter record. Corporate Finance growth came from Investment Grade issuance, including several sizable AI-related deals. Source
  • Public and infrastructure finance up 30%: Public, project and infrastructure finance revenue rose 30% on U.S. Public Finance activity and record fourth-quarter Infrastructure Finance issuance, led by Investment Grade issuers. Source
  • MIS full-year revenue at a record: MIS full-year 2025 revenue grew 9%, which management described as a record year for MIS revenue. Source

“By scaling decision grade, contextual intelligence that is embedded directly into customer workflows - across our platforms, third party systems, and AI enabled interfaces - we are expanding the ways in which Moody’s remains central to high stakes decision making.”

Rob Fauber, President and Chief Executive Officer

Products, customers and recurring revenue

  • Analytics transaction revenue down 30%: Analytics transaction revenue declined 30% in the fourth quarter. Management attributed the decline to the ongoing shift toward subscription-based solutions. Source
  • Decision Solutions ARR up 10%: Decision Solutions ARR grew 10%: KYC 15%, Banking 8% and Insurance 7%. Research and Insights ARR grew 8% and Data and Information ARR grew 7%. Source
  • Full-year recurring revenue up 11%: Full-year Analytics revenue was $3.6 billion, up 9%, or 7% organic constant currency. Recurring revenue grew 11% reported and 8% organic constant currency. Source

Operating expenses

  • 2026 expense growth below revenue growth: Management guided 2026 operating expenses to rise in the mid-single-digit percent range, which it said would sit below the expected rate of revenue growth. Source
  • Full-year expenses up 4%: Full-year 2025 operating expenses rose 4%: 3 points came from investment and operational spending and 2 points from acquisition-related costs. Source
  • Lower incentive compensation offset costs: Management said lower incentive compensation partly offset the 2025 expense increase. Source
  • Divestiture expected to offset 2026 costs: Management expects the 2026 cost increases to be partly offset by expense reductions after the Learning Solutions divestiture. Source

Margins and EPS

  • Fourth-quarter margins 40.8% and 48.7%: Operating margin was 40.8% and adjusted operating margin 48.7% in the fourth quarter. Analytics adjusted margin was 35.7%, up 190 basis points; Investors Service was 58.5%, up 720 basis points. Source
  • Full-year operating margin 43.4%: Full-year 2025 operating margin was 43.4% and adjusted operating margin 51.1%, up from 40.6% and 48.1% a year earlier. Source
  • Analytics margin gain from efficiencies: Management attributed the Analytics margin gain to operating efficiencies, recurring revenue growth and redeployed investment capacity in key strategic areas. Source
  • Investors Service margin gain from leverage: Management attributed the Investors Service margin gain to operating leverage, technology investment benefits and disciplined expense management. Source

Demand and capital markets activity

  • Issuance surpassed $6.6 trillion: Management cited constructive market conditions through most of 2025, with tightening credit spreads and refinancing demand supporting record issuance levels. Source
  • Corporate Finance up 9% for year: Corporate Finance revenue rose 9% for full-year 2025, led by Investment Grade and High Yield issuance amid tightening spreads and refinancing demand. Source
  • Private credit added about a fifth of growth: Management said private credit activity accounted for approximately 20% of MIS transaction revenue growth in 2025. Source
  • Financial Institutions and Structured Finance flat in Q4: In the fourth quarter, Financial Institutions and Structured Finance revenue was broadly in line with the prior year. Source
  • Leveraged loan comparison against record 2024: Management said leveraged loan issuance remained robust in the fourth quarter, and the year-over-year comparison reflects record Q4 2024 levels. Source

Capital, cash flow and shareholder returns

  • Operating cash flow and free cash flow up: Full-year 2025 operating cash flow was $2,901 million and free cash flow was $2,575 million. Higher operating income drove the increase, partly offset by higher tax and incentive payments. Source
  • Quarterly dividend declared: The Board declared a regular quarterly dividend on February 10, 2026. Source
  • Fourth-quarter repurchases at $485.55: Moody's repurchased 0.9 million shares in the fourth quarter at an average $485.55 per share and issued a net 48 thousand shares under employee stock plans. Source
  • About $4.0 billion repurchase authority left: Shares outstanding were 177.5 million at December 31, 2025, with about $4.0 billion of repurchase authority remaining, which has no established expiration date. Source
  • Debt and undrawn revolver: Debt stood at $7 billion, with an undrawn $1.25 billion revolving credit facility. Source

Strategy, investment and portfolio

  • Investment in efficiency and strategic initiatives: Management attributed the 2026 operating expense increase mainly to annual pay increases and investments to improve efficiency and support long-term strategic initiatives. Source
  • Divestiture adds about 2% inorganic effect: The 2026 MA revenue guidance includes an inorganic effect of about 2%, primarily from the divestiture of the Learning Solutions business. Source
  • Duplicative rent tied to headquarters move: Management said duplicative rent from the move to the new global headquarters does not reflect the company's ongoing operating cost structure. Source

Coming up, as management said on 18 February 2026

  • Dividend payable March 13, 2026: The dividend is payable March 13, 2026, to holders of record at the close of business on March 2, 2026. Source
  • Office relocation capital spending in 2026: About $100 million of 2026 capital expenditure relates to office relocations in New York and London, within the approximately $450 million capital expenditure projection. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Total MA ARR Source$3,498 million, up 8%
Recurring revenue share of MA revenue Source97% in the fourth quarter
Global MIS-rated issuance, 2025 SourceSurpassed $6.6 trillion

Risks management discussed

  • External: Management said geopolitical events, international trade and economic policies, and global GDP uncertainty could affect the company, and that these factors could change current guidance. Source
  • Demand: Management listed interest rates, inflation, currency rates, capital markets liquidity and debt market activity as assumptions that could affect the business. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Not stated: Severance from the 2024 decision to outsource production of certain sustainability content is recorded in asset-abandonment charges. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.