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Moodys Corp.: Q3 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q3 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 22 October 2025: press release. Guidance figures: 17 raised, 3 lowered, 7 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Revenue rose 11% in the quarter: The company reported third quarter revenue of $2.0 billion, up 11%. Year-to-date revenue was $5.8 billion, up 8%. Source
  • Diluted EPS grew 23% in the quarter: Management attributed diluted EPS growth of 23% and adjusted diluted EPS growth of 22% to improved operating performance. Source
  • MIS posted a record quarter: MIS revenue grew 12% to a record quarter and its third successive quarter above $1 billion. Source
  • Adjusted operating margin up 510 basis points: The company reported an operating margin of 45.7% and an adjusted operating margin of 52.9%. Segment adjusted margins were 34.3% for MA and 65.2% for MIS. Source
  • Market conditions described as constructive: Year to date, management said market conditions stayed constructive despite tariff and trade volatility, with spreads near historical lows and investor demand. Source
  • Operating cash flow fell on tax payments: Nine-month operating cash flow was $2,043 million and free cash flow $1,798 million, both lower on higher tax and incentive compensation payments. Source
  • Additional $4 billion repurchase authority: The Board authorized an additional $4 billion on October 21, 2025. About $398 million of authority remained at September 30, 2025. Source

“Our results, once again, speak for themselves: significant margin expansion, strong top-line growth, and clear momentum.”

Rob Fauber, President and Chief Executive Officer

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Revenue (MCO) SourceFull year 2025Increase in the high-single-digit percent rangeRaised from Increase in the mid-single-digit percent range
Operating expenses (MCO) SourceFull year 2025Increase in the low-to-mid-single-digit percent rangeKept
Operating margin (GAAP) SourceFull year 202543% to 44%Raised from 42% to 43%
Adjusted operating margin (MCO) SourceFull year 2025Approximately 51%Raised from 49% to 50%
Interest expense, net SourceFull year 2025$215 million to $225 millionLowered from $220 million to $240 million
Effective tax rate SourceFull year 202522% to 23%Lowered from 23% to 25%
Diluted EPS (MCO) SourceFull year 2025$13.15 to $13.40Raised from $12.25 to $12.75
Adjusted diluted EPS (MCO) SourceFull year 2025$14.50 to $14.75Raised from $13.50 to $14.00
Operating cash flow SourceFull year 2025Approximately $2.85 billion
Free cash flow (MCO) SourceFull year 2025Approximately $2.5 billion
Capital expenditures SourceFull year 2025Approximately $350 millionKept
Share repurchases SourceFull year 2025At least $1.5 billionRaised from At least $1.3 billion
MA revenue SourceFull year 2025Increase in the high-single-digit percent rangeKept
MA ARR growth SourceFull year 2025Increase in the high-single-digit percent rangeKept
MA adjusted operating margin SourceFull year 2025Approximately 33%
MIS revenue SourceFull year 2025Increase in the high-single-digit percent rangeRaised from Increase in the low-single-digit to mid-single-digit percent range
MIS adjusted operating margin SourceFull year 202563% to 64%Raised from 61% to 62%
Depreciation and amortization (percent of revenue) SourceFull year 2025Approximately 6.2%Raised from Approximately 6%
Restructuring (percent of revenue) SourceFull year 2025Approximately 1.3%Raised from Approximately 1%
Restructuring (per diluted share) SourceFull year 2025Approximately $0.45Raised from Approximately $0.35
U.S. GDP growth (assumption) SourceFull year 20251.5% - 2.5%Raised from 0.5% - 1.5%
Euro area GDP growth (assumption) SourceFull year 20250.5% - 1.5%Kept
Global GDP growth (assumption) SourceFull year 20252.0% - 3.0%Raised from 1.5% - 2.5%
U.S. high yield spreads (assumption) SourceNext 12 monthsAround 480 bpsRaised from Around 430 bps
Global high yield default rate (assumption) SourceYear-end 2025Around 3.7% by year-endRaised from Around 3.6% by year-end
Global MIS rated issuance (assumption) SourceFull year 2025Increase in the mid-single-digit percent rangeRaised from Decrease in the low-single-digit to mid-single-digit percent range
GBP/USD exchange rate (assumption) SourceRemainder of 2025$1.35 for the remainder of the yearLowered from $1.37 for the remainder of the year
EUR/USD exchange rate (assumption) SourceRemainder of 2025$1.18 for the remainder of the yearRaised from $1.17 for the remainder of the year
U.S. inflation rate (assumption) SourceFull year 20252.5% - 3.5%Kept
Euro area inflation rate (assumption) SourceFull year 2025Around 2.0%
U.S. unemployment rate (assumption) SourceDuring 20254.0% - 5.0%Kept
Global policy rates (assumption) SourceQ4 2025Two federal funds rate cuts in Q4

What changed from last quarter

  • Guidance raised: Full-year 2025 guidance raised for revenue, operating margin, adjusted operating margin, diluted and adjusted diluted EPS, MIS revenue and margin, and share repurchases. Source
  • Guidance lowered: Full-year net interest expense range and effective tax rate range lowered. Source
  • New: Board authorized additional share repurchase authority on October 21, 2025; no expiration date is set for the remaining authority. Source

Results and growth drivers

  • Revenue rose 11% in the quarter: The company reported third quarter revenue of $2.0 billion, up 11%. Year-to-date revenue was $5.8 billion, up 8%. Source
  • Diluted EPS grew 23% in the quarter: Management attributed diluted EPS growth of 23% and adjusted diluted EPS growth of 22% to improved operating performance. Source
  • MIS posted a record quarter: MIS revenue grew 12% to a record quarter and its third successive quarter above $1 billion. Source

Segments and revenue mix

  • MA revenue up 9%, 6% organic: MA revenue grew 9%, or 6% on an organic constant currency basis, with Decision Solutions up 11%, Research and Insights up 7% and Data and Information up 9%. Source
  • MA transaction revenue fell 19%: MA transaction revenue fell 19%, which the company attributes to its continuing shift toward subscription-based solutions. Source
  • Corporate Finance growth from refinancing: Corporate Finance growth came from Leveraged Finance issuers, mainly through ongoing refinancing. Investment Grade revenue declined against a higher prior-year comparison. Source

“We have a powerful earnings engine delivering double-digit EPS growth and generating significant free cash flow, all while investing for growth.”

Noémie Heuland, Chief Financial Officer

Products and customers

  • CLO activity lifted structured finance: Structured Finance revenue growth came mainly from higher CLO activity, supported by growth in Leveraged Loan formation. Source
  • Public Finance issuance ahead of volatility: Public, Project and Infrastructure Finance growth came mainly from U.S. Public Finance, as issuers moved to the market before possible further volatility. Source
  • Infrequent Banking issuance lifted Financial Institutions: Financial Institutions revenue growth came from infrequent Banking issuance, which management described as the most active quarter in over a decade. Source

Costs, margins and tax

  • Operating expenses broadly in line: Management said operating expenses were generally in line year over year, with investments and salary increases offset by lower incentive compensation and efficiency initiatives. Source
  • Expense growth of 5%: Operating expense growth of 5% included 2 points from restructuring charges and 2 points from inorganic growth through acquisitions. Source
  • Adjusted operating margin up 510 basis points: The company reported an operating margin of 45.7% and an adjusted operating margin of 52.9%. Segment adjusted margins were 34.3% for MA and 65.2% for MIS. Source
  • Tax rate higher than prior year: The effective tax rate was 25.4%, against 24.0% a year earlier, when the prior-year quarter included resolutions of uncertain tax positions. Source

“The investments we’ve made to capitalize on several deep currents are paying off - enabling us to better serve our customers while giving us the financial flexibility to pursue key growth opportunities.”

Rob Fauber, President and Chief Executive Officer

Demand and market conditions

  • Market conditions described as constructive: Year to date, management said market conditions stayed constructive despite tariff and trade volatility, with spreads near historical lows and investor demand. Source
  • CMBS and CLO momentum on tight spreads: Structured Finance revenue growth came from continued momentum in CMBS and CLOs, given the tight spread environment. Source
  • Currency added 1% to revenue: Foreign currency translation added 1% to MCO revenue in the quarter. Source

Capital, cash and returns to shareholders

  • Operating cash flow fell on tax payments: Nine-month operating cash flow was $2,043 million and free cash flow $1,798 million, both lower on higher tax and incentive compensation payments. Source
  • Shares repurchased in the quarter: The company repurchased 1.0 million shares in the quarter at an average cost of $503.66 and issued net 53 thousand shares under employee plans. Source
  • Additional $4 billion repurchase authority: The Board authorized an additional $4 billion on October 21, 2025. About $398 million of authority remained at September 30, 2025. Source
  • Dividend of $0.94 declared: The Board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.94 per share on October 21, 2025. Source
  • Debt and revolver position: Outstanding debt was $7.0 billion at September 30, 2025, with an undrawn $1.25 billion revolving credit facility. Source

Strategy, investment and workforce

  • MA margin gains from redeployment: Management attributed the year-to-date MA margin increase to operating efficiencies and to redeploying investment capacity into key strategic areas. Source
  • Acquisitions added to revenue: Acquisitions added $13 million to MCO revenue in the quarter and $45 million year to date. Source
  • Restructuring savings offset investment: Management said savings from the restructuring program and lower incentive accruals offset organic investment and salary increases in operating expenses. Source
  • Workforce of about 16,000: The company describes a workforce of approximately 16,000 across more than 40 countries. Source

Coming up, as management said on 22 October 2025

  • Dividend payable December 12: The $0.94 dividend is payable December 12, 2025, to holders of record at the close of business on November 21, 2025. Source
  • Fourth-quarter tax benefit included: The effective tax rate guidance includes an approximately 200 basis point fourth-quarter benefit, fully offset by release of an indemnification asset. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Total MA ARR (September 30, 2025 vs. September 30, 2024, $ millions) Source$3,361 million, up $260 million or 8%
Recurring revenue share of MA revenue Source96%
Decision Solutions ARR growth Source10% (KYC 16%)

Risks management discussed

  • External: Full-year assumptions depend on tariff and trade policy, along with interest rates, inflation and related economic conditions. Source
  • Financial: Management states that full-year 2025 results could differ materially from the current guidance. Source
  • External: Full-year assumptions carry uncertainty on global GDP growth, international economic conditions, and geopolitical events. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Not stated: Severance charges relate to a staff reduction following the 2024 decision to outsource certain sustainability content production. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.