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Flutter Entertainment plc: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 26 February 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 1 raised, 17 new, 2 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Fourth-quarter revenue and EBITDA rose: Revenue rose 25% to $4,737m, mainly from M&A and more favorable US sports results. Adjusted EBITDA rose 27% to $832m, and average monthly players rose 3%, including the India market closure. Source
  • Net loss reflects India impairment: Q4 net income was $10m against $156m a year earlier. The fiscal 2025 net loss of $407m reflects a $556m non-cash impairment tied to the India regulation change. Source
  • US revenue up a third in Q4: US revenue rose 33% to $2,142m, with sportsbook up 35% and iGaming up 33%. US Q4 adjusted EBITDA reached $310m, up 90%. Source
  • Handle slowed under high margins: Handle grew 3%, which management said reflected recycling from high NFL gross revenue margins and less compelling late-season NFL content. Trends moderated into 2026. Source
  • FanDuel Predicts went live: FanDuel Predicts launched nationwide in late Q4, with sports contracts in 18 states including California, Texas and Florida. Early engagement is mostly sports-focused, with volume per customer in line with expectations. Source
  • Leverage at 3.7x after acquisitions: Net debt was $10,591m and available cash about $1.8bn. The leverage ratio is 3.6x including Snai, and management expects profit growth and cash generation to reduce leverage through 2026. Source
  • Buyback approach made more flexible: Buyback cadence will be updated as the year progresses, and leverage is expected to return to the target range in the medium term as strategic investment and repurchases run. Source

“Recent market dynamics have created a challenging environment, but we believe these are largely transitory and we have clear plans in place to accelerate growth.”

Peter Jackson, CEO

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Group revenue SourceFY 2026$18.4bn midpoint (range $17.75bn to $19.05bn)New
Group adjusted EBITDA SourceFY 2026$2.97bn midpoint (range $2.645bn to $3.295bn)New
US revenue SourceFY 2026$7.8bn midpoint (range $7.4bn to $8.2bn)New
US adjusted EBITDA SourceFY 2026$1.05bn midpoint (range $0.85bn to $1.25bn)New
International revenue SourceFY 2026$10.6bn midpoint (range $10.35bn to $10.85bn)New
International adjusted EBITDA SourceFY 2026$2.23bn midpoint (range $2.105bn to $2.355bn)New
FanDuel Predicts adjusted EBITDA investment SourceFY 2026toward the upper end of $200m to $300mRaised from $200m to $300m
US new states adjusted EBITDA SourceFY 2026$(70)mNew
Unallocated corporate overhead SourceFY 2026approximately $310mNew
Interest expense, net SourceFY 2026approximately $610m (2025: $515m)New
Depreciation and amortization excluding acquired intangibles SourceFY 2026approximately $750m (2025: $660m)New
Capital expenditure SourceFY 2026approximately $855m (2025: $777m)New
Share repurchases SourceH1 2026approximately $250mKept
Foreign exchange assumptions SourceFY 2026USD:GBP 0.741; USD:EUR 0.849; USD:AUD 1.412New
US revenue and adjusted EBITDA seasonality SourceQ1 2026about 22% of revenue; about 13% of adjusted EBITDANew
International revenue and adjusted EBITDA seasonality SourceH1 2026about 49% of revenue; about 47% of adjusted EBITDANew
Brazil investment SourceFY 2026approximately $70mNew
India market exit impact, APAC SourceFY 2026revenue -$250m; adjusted EBITDA -$90mKept
UK gaming tax increase, adjusted EBITDA impact SourceFY 2026$320m before mitigation; $235m after first-order mitigationNew
UK gaming tax increase, adjusted EBITDA impact SourceFY 2027$540m before mitigation; $339m after first-order mitigationNew

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: Full-year 2026 guidance introduced for Group, US and International, including trading through February 22. Source
  • Guidance raised: FanDuel Predicts adjusted EBITDA investment moved to the upper end of the earlier $200m to $300m range. Source
  • New: UK gaming tax on iGaming rises from April 2026, announced in the autumn budget. Source
  • New: FanDuel Predicts launched in late Q4, after being described as planned for December in the prior release. Source
  • New: Share repurchase approach made more flexible, with future buyback cadence updates promised during the year. Source
  • New: Brazil investment plan increased ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Source
  • New: A new loyalty program is planned for launch during 2026 as part of the FanDuel sportsbook plans. Source

Fourth-quarter and full-year results

  • Fourth-quarter revenue and EBITDA rose: Revenue rose 25% to $4,737m, mainly from M&A and more favorable US sports results. Adjusted EBITDA rose 27% to $832m, and average monthly players rose 3%, including the India market closure. Source
  • Full-year players and revenue grew: For fiscal 2025, revenue reached $16,383m, up 17%, and adjusted EBITDA reached $2,845m, up 21%. Average monthly players rose 14% to 15,911k. Source
  • Net loss reflects India impairment: Q4 net income was $10m against $156m a year earlier. The fiscal 2025 net loss of $407m reflects a $556m non-cash impairment tied to the India regulation change. Source
  • Full-year guidance introduced with trading: The company introduced full-year 2026 guidance, with trading through February 22 included and the sports result assumptions stated separately. Source

US sportsbook and iGaming

  • US revenue up a third in Q4: US revenue rose 33% to $2,142m, with sportsbook up 35% and iGaming up 33%. US Q4 adjusted EBITDA reached $310m, up 90%. Source
  • Handle slowed under high margins: Handle grew 3%, which management said reflected recycling from high NFL gross revenue margins and less compelling late-season NFL content. Trends moderated into 2026. Source
  • FanDuel lost share through churn: Management said FanDuel's moderation was more pronounced than the market's, citing a larger recycling impact and promotional spend phased against unfavorable results, which raised churn. Source
  • Prediction markets seen as minor factor: Management estimated the potential handle impact from prediction markets in the low single digits and said it was confident they were not a significant driver of the slowdown. Source

“At this point, however, it is difficult to be definitive as to when market handle growth rates will recover from the impact of Q4 recycling, and we continue to monitor trends closely.”

Peter Jackson, CEO

International segment

  • International revenue up 19% in Q4: International revenue rose 19% to $2,595m, with sportsbook up 6% and iGaming up 31%. Excluding M&A, revenue fell 1% on adverse sports results and the India exit. Source
  • Southern Europe and Africa grew fastest: Sisal extended its Italian online lead to six percentage points. Türkiye and Italian iGaming added to growth, and PokerStars Italy migration lifted revenue 13%. Source
  • UK sportsbook hit by results: UKI revenue declined 9%. Sportsbook absorbed a 500bps adverse swing in sports results with handle flat, while iGaming growth re-accelerated to double digits. Source
  • Brazil expansion carries investment: Brazil revenue rose 383% but fell 22% excluding M&A on re-registration friction. Management is increasing investment ahead of the World Cup, which shifts profitability timing. Source
  • India real-money gaming ceased: Real-money gaming in India has ended, and the company puts the 2026 APAC impact at revenue down $250m and EBITDA down $90m. Junglee now offers only free-to-play. Source

Costs, tax and impairment

  • Income tax expense rose sharply: Income tax expense rose $342m to $144m, driven mainly by use of historic US losses and the deferred tax effect of the PokerStars internal reorganization. Source
  • Amortization and interest up on M&A: Depreciation and amortization rose $165m to $435m, mainly from M&A. Net interest expense rose to $168m, reflecting financing for the Snai and BetNacional deals and the Boyd stake. Source
  • Fox Option gain offset costs: The non-cash Fox Option gain was $50m in Q4, compared with a $212m loss a year earlier, a year-over-year benefit to net income of $262m. Source
  • US cost of sales fell as share: US cost of sales fell as a share of revenue, helped by lower adverse sports results, market access savings from the Boyd buyout, and a gaming tax rebate. Source

“Looking ahead, we have a clear plan in place to navigate recent US trends and we continue to see a significant runway for growth in a dynamic market”

Peter Jackson, CEO

Prediction markets and product

  • FanDuel Predicts went live: FanDuel Predicts launched nationwide in late Q4, with sports contracts in 18 states including California, Texas and Florida. Early engagement is mostly sports-focused, with volume per customer in line with expectations. Source
  • Predicts activity weighted to second half: Customer engagement and investment in FanDuel Predicts are both expected to skew heavily to the second half of 2026, ahead of the World Cup and the 2026/27 NFL season. Source
  • Market-making plans still pending: Management is pursuing market-making services using its pricing capability and said details will follow later. Under the CME partnership, CME receives a revenue share of about 50%. Source

Capital, cash and returns

  • Leverage at 3.7x after acquisitions: Net debt was $10,591m and available cash about $1.8bn. The leverage ratio is 3.6x including Snai, and management expects profit growth and cash generation to reduce leverage through 2026. Source
  • Free cash flow fell on M&A capex: Operating cash flow fell $224m to $428m on higher interest and tax payments and lower player deposit inflows. Free cash flow fell $335m to $138m. Source
  • Q4 buybacks and cumulative returns: Q4 repurchases were 1.02 million shares for $245m. Cumulative cash returned reached $1.12bn against a planned total of up to $5bn over coming years. Source
  • Buyback approach made more flexible: Buyback cadence will be updated as the year progresses, and leverage is expected to return to the target range in the medium term as strategic investment and repurchases run. Source

Coming up, as management said on 26 February 2026

  • Predicts product push before NFL season: Product development is expected to step up before the World Cup and the 2026/27 NFL season. Source
  • Market-making details to follow: Management will share more detail on market-making plans in due course. Source
  • Snai customers move to SEA platform: Snai online customers are planned to migrate to the SEA platform in the first half of 2026. Source
  • Serbia platform migration: Serbia's migration is expected to complete the CEE platform strategy in the second half of 2026. Source
  • Buyback cadence updates to come: The company will update buyback cadence guidance as the year progresses. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Customer counts (average monthly players) Source4.8m US average monthly players in Q4 (+5%); 15,072k Group in Q4; 15,911k for fiscal 2025

Risks management discussed

  • Demand: Trading in early 2026 reflects lower customer engagement after high gross revenue margins in late Q4 and weaker NFL narratives. Source
  • Operational: Promotional phasing that did not match sports results led to higher churn and lost share at FanDuel. Source
  • Regulatory: UK gaming tax increases are expected to affect the overall market significantly. Source
  • Demand: Prediction market operators may be drawing new entertainment-first customers, according to management. Source
  • External: Sports results turned customer-friendly in International at the start of 2026. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Met: The UKI Sky Bet migration produced the cost savings management expected. Source
  • On track: Management said it remains on track for the cost savings target set at the 2024 Investor Day. Source
  • Ahead: The December state launch reached customer acquisition levels above management's expectations. Source
  • Ahead: NFL gross revenue margin finished the season 100bps above management's expected margin. Source
  • Not stated: Management said the Snai integration is progressing well and gives confidence in synergy targets. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.