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ConocoPhillips: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 5 February 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 1 lowered, 5 new, 6 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Fourth-quarter adjusted EPS fell to $1.02: Fourth-quarter earnings were $1.4 billion, or $1.17 per share, against $2.3 billion, or $1.90, a year earlier. Special items were mainly a gain on asset sales and restructuring costs. Source
  • Full-year production in line with guidance: Full-year 2025 production reached 2,375 MBOED, up 388 MBOED reported and 2.5% on an underlying basis. Total and Lower 48 production were both consistent with guidance. Source
  • Realized price down 19% in quarter: Total average realized price was $42.46 per BOE, 19% below the fourth quarter of 2024. The full-year average was $47.01 per BOE, 14% lower than 2024. Source
  • PALNG commercial offtake reaches 10 MTPA: Initial 5 MTPA of PALNG Phase 1 offtake was placed and a further 5 MTPA secured, bringing the commercial offtake portfolio to 10 MTPA. Source
  • 2026 operating cost guidance held: Adjusted operating costs for 2026 are guided at $10.2 billion, consistent with the preliminary figure given last quarter. Source
  • $9.0 billion returned to shareholders: Shareholder distributions were $9.0 billion, or 45% of CFO, including $5.0 billion of share repurchases and $4.0 billion of ordinary dividends. Source
  • Reserves replacement ratio 80%: Year-end 2025 proved reserves were 7.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent, with a reserves replacement ratio of 80%. Source
  • 2026 production guided 2.33 to 2.36: Full-year 2026 production is guided at 2.33 to 2.36 MMBOED. The prior quarter's preliminary range was 2,330 to 2,370 MBOED. Source

“Our best-in-class asset base remains a distinct competitive advantage, with the deepest and most capital-efficient Lower 48 inventory and a diverse, global portfolio of advantaged major projects and legacy assets.”

Ryan Lance, chairman and chief executive officer

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Capital expenditures Sourcefull-year 2026approximately $12 billionKept
Adjusted operating costs Sourcefull-year 2026$10.2 billionKept
Total company production Sourcefull-year 20262.33 to 2.36 MMBOEDLowered from 2,330 to 2,370 MBOED
Total company production Sourcefirst quarter 20262.30 to 2.34 MMBOEDNew
Depreciation, depletion and amortization Sourcefull-year 2026$11.7 to $11.9 billionNew
Adjusted corporate and other segment net loss Sourcefull-year 2026approximately $0.9 billionNew
Ordinary dividend Sourcefirst quarter 2026$0.84 per shareKept
Return of capital Sourcefull-year 202645% of CFONew
Incremental free cash flow Sourceby 2029$7 billion, including $1 billion each year from 2026 through 2028Kept
Dispositions Sourceby year-end 2026$5 billion totalKept
North Field East startup Sourcesecond half 2026startup in the second half of 2026Kept
Capital and cost reduction Source2026$1 billion reductionNew
Incremental cost reductions and margin enhancements Sourcerun-rate by year-end 2026more than $1 billion

What changed from last quarter

  • Guidance kept: Capital expenditures of about $12 billion and adjusted operating costs of $10.2 billion for 2026 are consistent with preliminary guidance given last quarter. Source
  • New guidance: First-quarter 2026 production guidance of 2.30 to 2.34 MMBOED was given. Source
  • New guidance: Depreciation, depletion and amortization and adjusted corporate and other segment net loss guidance for 2026 was given. Source
  • New guidance: A plan to return 45% of CFO to shareholders in 2026 was stated. Source
  • Guidance lowered: The top of the full-year 2026 production range is 2.36 MMBOED, against 2,370 MBOED in the prior quarter's table. Source
  • New: An agreement was signed to extend the Waha Concession in Libya through 2050, with new fiscal terms. Source
  • New: Initial 5 MTPA of PALNG Phase 1 offtake was placed, bringing total commercial offtake to 10 MTPA. Source
  • New: Management set a focus on a $1 billion reduction in capital and costs for 2026. Source

Fourth-quarter and full-year results

  • Fourth-quarter adjusted EPS fell to $1.02: Fourth-quarter earnings were $1.4 billion, or $1.17 per share, against $2.3 billion, or $1.90, a year earlier. Special items were mainly a gain on asset sales and restructuring costs. Source
  • Full-year earnings and adjusted EPS: Full-year 2025 earnings were $8.0 billion, or $6.35 per share, and adjusted earnings were $7.7 billion, or $6.16 per share, compared with $9.2 billion and $7.79 in 2024. Source
  • Fourth-quarter production rose on acquisitions: Fourth-quarter production was 2,320 MBOED, up 137 MBOED from a year earlier. After adjusting for acquisitions and dispositions, it decreased 63 MBOED or 2.6%. Source
  • Full-year production in line with guidance: Full-year 2025 production reached 2,375 MBOED, up 388 MBOED reported and 2.5% on an underlying basis. Total and Lower 48 production were both consistent with guidance. Source

Realized prices and Lower 48 basins

  • Realized price down 19% in quarter: Total average realized price was $42.46 per BOE, 19% below the fourth quarter of 2024. The full-year average was $47.01 per BOE, 14% lower than 2024. Source
  • Delaware Basin led Lower 48 output: Lower 48 output was 1,439 MBOED in the fourth quarter, including 673 MBOED from the Delaware Basin, 370 MBOED from the Eagle Ford, 198 MBOED from the Bakken and 194 MBOED from the Midland. Source
  • Surmont first oil ahead of schedule: First oil was achieved at Surmont Pad 104W-A during the fourth quarter, ahead of schedule. Source
  • Waha concession extended through 2050: An agreement was signed to extend the Waha Concession in Libya through 2050, with new fiscal terms, subject to normal regulatory approvals. Source

“Looking ahead, we’re focused on driving a $1 billion reduction in our capital and costs in 2026, while returning 45% of our CFO to shareholders.”

Ryan Lance, chairman and chief executive officer

LNG and major projects

  • PALNG commercial offtake reaches 10 MTPA: Initial 5 MTPA of PALNG Phase 1 offtake was placed and a further 5 MTPA secured, bringing the commercial offtake portfolio to 10 MTPA. Source
  • Willow and equity LNG projects advanced: Willow in Alaska and equity LNG projects at North Field East, North Field South and PALNG continued to advance during the quarter. Source
  • North Field East startup in second half: Management said all projects remain on schedule, with North Field East startup expected in the second half of 2026. Source

Costs and efficiency

  • 2025 adjusted operating costs: Adjusted operating costs for 2025 were $10,634 million, after excluding $468 million of transaction and integration expenses, $82 million of other corporate charges and $40 million of pending claims. Source
  • 2026 operating cost guidance held: Adjusted operating costs for 2026 are guided at $10.2 billion, consistent with the preliminary figure given last quarter. Source
  • Corporate loss guided near $0.9B: Adjusted corporate and other segment net loss is guided at about $0.9 billion for 2026. The 2025 adjusted loss was $942 million. Source
  • Marathon synergies and one-time benefits: The Marathon Oil integration is complete. Run-rate synergy capture doubled to more than $1 billion in 2025, with about $1 billion of one-time benefits. Source
  • Lower 48 drilling efficiency up 15%: Lower 48 drilling and completion efficiency improved by more than 15% year over year. Source

“We are well positioned to deliver an expected $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2029, including $1 billion each year from 2026 through 2028.”

Ryan Lance, chairman and chief executive officer

Cash, capital and shareholder returns

  • Operating cash flow $19.8 billion in 2025: Cash provided by operating activities was $19.8 billion for 2025. CFO was $19.9 billion, and year-end cash and short-term investments were $7.4 billion. Source
  • $9.0 billion returned to shareholders: Shareholder distributions were $9.0 billion, or 45% of CFO, including $5.0 billion of share repurchases and $4.0 billion of ordinary dividends. Source
  • Fourth-quarter cash and disposition proceeds: In the fourth quarter the company received $1.6 billion of disposition proceeds, funded $3.0 billion of capital expenditures and investments, and repurchased $1.0 billion of shares. Source
  • Return on capital employed 10%: Return on capital employed was 10% for 2025 and 10% on a cash-adjusted basis, compared with 14% and 15% in 2024. Source

Reserves and dispositions

  • Reserves replacement ratio 80%: Year-end 2025 proved reserves were 7.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent, with a reserves replacement ratio of 80%. Source
  • Organic replacement ratio 99%: Excluding closed acquisitions and dispositions, the organic reserves replacement ratio for 2025 was 99%. Source
  • Three-year replacement ratios: Over three years the reserves replacement ratio was 145% and the organic ratio was 106%. Source
  • Dispositions closed $3.2 billion in 2025: The company closed $3.2 billion of dispositions in 2025. Source

2026 production and depreciation guidance

  • 2026 production guided 2.33 to 2.36: Full-year 2026 production is guided at 2.33 to 2.36 MMBOED. The prior quarter's preliminary range was 2,330 to 2,370 MBOED. Source
  • Depreciation guided at $11.7 to $11.9B: Depreciation, depletion and amortization is guided at $11.7 to $11.9 billion for 2026. Source
  • First-quarter production includes weather: First-quarter 2026 production is guided at 2.30 to 2.34 MMBOED, including weather-related downtime. Source

Coming up, as management said on 5 February 2026

  • First-quarter dividend payable March 2: The $0.84 dividend is payable March 2, 2026, to holders of record at the close of business on Feb. 18, 2026. Source
  • Final reserves data in Form 10-K: Final information on 2025 oil and gas reserves will come in the Form 10-K, to be filed with the SEC in February. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Capital expenditure Sourceapproximately $12 billion for 2026

Risks management discussed

  • External: Earnings and adjusted earnings declined on lower prices, partly offset by higher volumes. Source
  • Operational: First-quarter 2026 production guidance allows for weather-related downtime. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Ahead: Management said the company outperformed its initial 2025 production, capital and cost guidance. Source
  • Met: Management said the Marathon Oil integration was completed and synergy capture doubled. Source
  • Met: Management said the company achieved its CFO-based return of capital target for 2025. Source
  • On track: Management said it is on track for more than $1 billion of run-rate cost and margin enhancements by year-end 2026. Source
  • On track: Management said it is on track to meet the $5 billion disposition target by year-end 2026. Source
  • On track: Management said all projects, including North Field East startup, remain on schedule. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.