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ConocoPhillips: Q3 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q3 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 6 November 2025: press release. Guidance figures: 2 raised, 2 lowered, 5 new. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Third-quarter EPS and adjusted EPS: Third-quarter earnings were $1.7 billion, or $1.38 per share, against $2.1 billion, or $1.76 per share, a year earlier. Adjusted earnings were $2.0 billion, or $1.61 per share. Source
  • Production up 4% excluding deals: Third-quarter production was 2,399 MBOED, up 482 MBOED from a year earlier. Adjusted for closed acquisitions and dispositions, production rose 83 MBOED, or 4%. Source
  • Lower 48 output by basin: Lower 48 delivered 1,528 MBOED in the third quarter. Delaware Basin 686, Eagle Ford 403, Bakken 200 and Midland Basin 196 MBOED. Source
  • Realized price down 14%: The total average realized price was $46.44 per BOE, 14% lower than $54.18 per BOE in the third quarter of 2024. Source
  • Operating cash flow and CFO: Cash provided by operating activities was $5.9 billion in the quarter. Excluding a $0.5 billion operating working capital change, CFO was $5.4 billion. Source
  • Willow nearing half complete: Willow is nearing 50% completion, with key milestones achieved to date. Management narrowed the expected timing of first oil. Source
  • New 20-year LNG sales agreements: Two 20-year sales and purchase agreements were signed, at PALNG Phase 2 and Rio Grande LNG Train 5, with commencement expected in 2030 and 2031. Source

“ConocoPhillips again demonstrated strong operational and financial performance in the third quarter, resulting in higher production and reduced operating cost guidance for 2025.”

Ryan Lance, chairman and chief executive officer

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Production SourceFourth quarter 20252.30 to 2.34 MMBOEDNew
Production SourceFull year 20252.375 MMBOEDRaised from 2.35 to 2.37 MMBOED
Adjusted operating costs SourceFull year 2025$10.6 billionLowered from $10.7 to $10.9 billion
Capital expenditures Source2026approximately $12 billionNew
Adjusted operating costs Source2026$10.2 billionNew
Underlying production growth Source20260 to 2%New
Pro forma underlying production Source2026 full year2,330 - 2,370 MBOEDNew
Willow project capital SourceTotal project$8.5 to $9.0 billionRaised
LNG project capital SourceTotal LNG projects$3.4 billionLowered
Free cash flow SourceIncremental, 2026 to 2029$7 billion by 2029, including $1 billion each year from 2026 through 2028

What changed from last quarter

  • Guidance raised: Full-year 2025 production guidance raised to 2.375 MMBOED from 2.35 to 2.37 MMBOED. Source
  • Guidance lowered: Full-year 2025 adjusted operating cost guidance lowered to $10.6 billion from $10.7 to $10.9 billion. Source
  • New guidance: Fourth-quarter 2025 production guidance of 2.30 to 2.34 MMBOED given for the first time in this release. Source
  • New guidance: Preliminary 2026 guidance provided for capital expenditures, adjusted operating costs and underlying production growth. Source
  • Guidance raised: Willow total project capital guidance updated to $8.5 to $9.0 billion, citing inflation and cost escalation. The prior figure is not given. Source
  • Guidance lowered: Total LNG project capital guidance reduced to $3.4 billion after a $0.6 billion credit against Port Arthur capital spending. Source
  • New: Twenty-year sales and purchase agreements signed at PALNG Phase 2 and Rio Grande LNG Train 5. Source
  • Ended: Anadarko Basin asset disposition closed October 1, 2025, for $1.3 billion. It had been signed in the second quarter and expected to close at the start of the fourth quarter. Source
  • New: Quarterly ordinary dividend raised 8% to $0.84 per share, from the $0.78 declared for the third quarter. Source

Earnings and production results

  • Third-quarter EPS and adjusted EPS: Third-quarter earnings were $1.7 billion, or $1.38 per share, against $2.1 billion, or $1.76 per share, a year earlier. Adjusted earnings were $2.0 billion, or $1.61 per share. Source
  • Production up 4% excluding deals: Third-quarter production was 2,399 MBOED, up 482 MBOED from a year earlier. Adjusted for closed acquisitions and dispositions, production rose 83 MBOED, or 4%. Source
  • Nine-month earnings and production: Nine-month earnings were $6.5 billion, or $5.18 per share, against $6.9 billion, or $5.91 per share, in 2024. Nine-month production was 2,393 MBOED, up 472 MBOED. Source

Lower 48 production by basin

  • Lower 48 output by basin: Lower 48 delivered 1,528 MBOED in the third quarter. Delaware Basin 686, Eagle Ford 403, Bakken 200 and Midland Basin 196 MBOED. Source
  • Lower 48 compared with second quarter: Second-quarter Lower 48 output was 1,508 MBOED, with 845 MBOED reported as Permian. The third-quarter release splits the Permian into Delaware and Midland figures.

“Looking to 2026, we expect lower capital and operating costs with flat to modest production growth.”

Ryan Lance, chairman and chief executive officer

Realized prices and earnings drivers

  • Realized price down 14%: The total average realized price was $46.44 per BOE, 14% lower than $54.18 per BOE in the third quarter of 2024. Source
  • Lower prices partly offset by volumes: Earnings decreased year on year as lower prices were partly offset by Marathon Oil acquisition benefits and higher underlying production volumes. Source

Cash flow and shareholder returns

  • Operating cash flow and CFO: Cash provided by operating activities was $5.9 billion in the quarter. Excluding a $0.5 billion operating working capital change, CFO was $5.4 billion. Source
  • Third-quarter capital spending and distributions: Capital expenditures and investments were $2.9 billion. Shareholder distributions were $2.2 billion, including $1.3 billion in repurchases and $1.0 billion in ordinary dividends. Source
  • Cash and investments at quarter end: Cash and short-term investments were $6.6 billion at quarter end, with long-term investments of $1.1 billion. Source

“We increased our base dividend by 8%, consistent with our goal to provide top quartile dividend growth in the S&P 500”

Ryan Lance, chairman and chief executive officer

Major projects and LNG

  • Willow nearing half complete: Willow is nearing 50% completion, with key milestones achieved to date. Management narrowed the expected timing of first oil. Source
  • LNG projects about 80% complete: Total LNG project capital is about 80% complete after the Port Arthur credit. North Field East, North Field South and PALNG are progressing. Source
  • New 20-year LNG sales agreements: Two 20-year sales and purchase agreements were signed, at PALNG Phase 2 and Rio Grande LNG Train 5, with commencement expected in 2030 and 2031. Source

Asset dispositions

  • Third-quarter disposition proceeds: Third-quarter disposition proceeds were $0.3 billion from noncore sales. Nine-month disposition proceeds were $1.6 billion. Source
  • Fourth-quarter noncore sales near $0.5 billion: Noncore asset sales closed or expected to close in the fourth quarter total about $0.5 billion, subject to customary closing adjustments. Source

Coming up, as management said on 6 November 2025

  • Fourth-quarter dividend payment: The fourth-quarter dividend is payable December 1, 2025, to holders of record at the close of November 17, 2025. Source
  • Willow first oil in early 2029: Management narrowed the expected timing of first oil at Willow to early 2029. Source
  • PALNG Phase 2 and Train 5 start-up: The PALNG Phase 2 and Rio Grande LNG Train 5 sales agreements are expected to commence in 2030 and 2031. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Capital expenditures and investments, nine months 2025 Source$9.5 billion

Risks management discussed

  • External: Lower prices reduced earnings year on year and were the main factor offsetting the benefits of Marathon Oil and higher volumes. Source
  • Operational: Willow project capital was updated for general inflation and for North Slope and marine cost escalation. Source
  • Financial: Third-quarter special items, mainly restructuring costs, separate reported earnings from adjusted earnings. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • On track: Management said it is on track to meet its $5 billion disposition target by year-end 2026. Source
  • On track: Management said all three LNG projects remain on schedule, with first LNG from North Field East expected in 2026. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.