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Affirm Holdings, Inc.: Q3 FY2026 earnings call

What management said about Q3 FY2026, from the documents filed with the SEC on 7 May 2026: letter to shareholders. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • GMV grew 35% to $11.6 billion: GMV grew 35% to $11.6 billion, with about 40% of the growth coming from direct merchant point-of-sale integrations. Source
  • Adjusted operating income up 62%: Adjusted operating income was $281 million, up $107 million or 62% from $174 million a year earlier. Source
  • RLTC rate above target range: RLTC grew 41% to $498 million, and RLTC as a percentage of GMV rose 19 basis points to 4.31%, above the high end of the 3 to 4% long-term target range. Source
  • Delinquencies rose in line with expectations: Management said 30+ day delinquencies rose in line with expectations, with about half the increase from a smaller denominator due to stronger tax refund seasonality. Source
  • Productivity gain plausible, team modest growth: Management said an order of magnitude gain in development productivity is plausible, yet it expects to modestly grow the development team. Source
  • GMV and revenue ranges set: Management guided fiscal Q4 GMV to $13.15 to $13.45 billion and revenue to $1,080 to $1,110 million, and fiscal 2026 GMV to $49.265 to $49.565 billion and revenue to $4,175 to $4,205 million. Source

“We delivered 35% GMV growth, our 10th consecutive quarter of over-30% growth - without compromising unit economic discipline.”

Affirm Holdings, Inc., letter to shareholders

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
GMV Sourcefiscal Q4 2026$13.15 to $13.45 billion
GMV Sourcefiscal 2026$49.265 to $49.565 billion
Total revenue Sourcefiscal Q4 2026$1,080 to $1,110 million
Total revenue Sourcefiscal 2026$4,175 to $4,205 million
Revenue less transaction costs (RLTC) Sourcefiscal Q4 2026$535 to $550 million
Revenue less transaction costs (RLTC) Sourcefiscal 2026$2,031 to $2,046 million
Operating margin Sourcefiscal Q4 20269.5 to 11.5%
Operating margin Sourcefiscal 20268.9 to 9.4%
Adjusted operating margin (non-GAAP) Sourcefiscal Q4 202627.5 to 29.5%
Adjusted operating margin (non-GAAP) Sourcefiscal 202628.2 to 28.8%
Weighted average basic shares outstanding Sourcefiscal Q4 2026341 million
Weighted average basic shares outstanding Sourcefiscal 2026336 million
Weighted average diluted shares outstanding Sourcefiscal Q4 2026352 million
Weighted average diluted shares outstanding Sourcefiscal 2026349 million
Equity capital required as a percent of total platform portfolio (ECR ratio) Sourcefiscal Q4 2026below 5%

What changed from last quarter

  • New: Nordstrom and URBN were added to the US merchant roster. Source
  • New: Sleep Number was added as a merchant, with 0% APR offers of up to 12 months at launch. Source
  • New: The company launched its first UK warehouse funding partnership. Source

Results and growth drivers

  • GMV grew 35% to $11.6 billion: GMV grew 35% to $11.6 billion, with about 40% of the growth coming from direct merchant point-of-sale integrations. Source
  • Revenue up 33%, take rate lower: Total revenue grew 33% to $1,039 million. Revenue as a share of GMV was 8.98%, down 17 basis points from the prior year. Source
  • Operating income swung to profit: Operating income was $88 million, against an $8 million loss a year earlier. Source
  • Diluted EPS of $0.30: Diluted net income per share was $0.30, compared with $0.01 a year earlier. Source
  • Adjusted operating income up 62%: Adjusted operating income was $281 million, up $107 million or 62% from $174 million a year earlier. Source

Products, card and merchants

  • Card drove direct-to-consumer growth: Direct-to-consumer GMV grew 48% to $3.7 billion, mainly from Affirm Card GMV, which grew 146% to $2.1 billion. Source
  • Pay in X growth above 50%: Pay in X GMV grew 52%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter with growth above 50%. Source
  • Transactions rose faster than GMV: Transactions rose 45% to 45 million, outpacing GMV growth, while average order value fell 7%. Source
  • Wallet and software partners drove merchants: Most of the increase in active merchant count came from two wallet partnerships and several independent software vendor partnerships. Source
  • Top five partners' GMV share fell: The top five partners accounted for 42% of GMV, down from 45% a year earlier. Source
  • Lowe’s and Intuit partnerships ramping: Partnerships with Lowe’s and Intuit are ramping, and management said it is pleased with the early reads. Source

“The Affirm consumer remains financially healthy. We see neither a change in demand nor in our consumers’ ability to repay.”

Affirm Holdings, Inc., letter to shareholders

Margins, costs and funding costs

  • RLTC rate above target range: RLTC grew 41% to $498 million, and RLTC as a percentage of GMV rose 19 basis points to 4.31%, above the high end of the 3 to 4% long-term target range. Source
  • Funding costs fell, lifting RLTC: Average funding costs fell about 126 basis points year over year to 5.8%, a tailwind to RLTC as a percent of GMV. Source
  • Non-GAAP operating expenses up 22%: Non-GAAP operating expenses excluding transaction costs rose $39 million, or 22%, offsetting part of the RLTC gain. Source
  • Warrant expense inside operating income: Operating income of $88 million includes $44 million of enterprise warrant and share-based expense tied to warrants granted to two enterprise partners. Source

Credit quality

  • Delinquencies rose in line with expectations: Management said 30+ day delinquencies rose in line with expectations, with about half the increase from a smaller denominator due to stronger tax refund seasonality. Source
  • 30+ day delinquencies up 29 basis points: 30+ day delinquencies excluding Peloton and Pay in X loans rose 29 basis points year over year to 2.8%. Source
  • Allowance rose to 6.0%: Allowance for credit losses was 6.0% of loans held for investment, up from 5.7% a year earlier and 5.4% in the prior quarter. Source
  • Monthly installment cohorts tracking 3.5%: Recent monthly installment loan cohorts are tracking toward approximately 3.5% ultimate net charge-offs of cohort GMV. Source
  • Pay in 4 losses below 1% of GMV: Recent Pay in 4 vintages are tracking to loss rates below 1% of GMV. Source

“Affirm is maturing like fine wine further down the P&L.”

Affirm Holdings, Inc., letter to shareholders

Capital, funding and liquidity

  • Funding capacity reached $28.2 billion: Funding capacity was $28.2 billion, up from $23.3 billion a year earlier and $28.0 billion at the end of the prior quarter. Source
  • Capacity supports $65 billion annual GMV: Management estimates current capacity can support more than $65.0 billion in annual GMV, based on weighted-average loan duration of about 5 months. Source
  • Revolving ABS upsized to $750 million: The revolving ABS transaction was upsized from $500 million to $750 million and remained more than 2x oversubscribed after the upsize. Source
  • Warehouse capacity rose: Warehouse and other funding capacity rose $1.3 billion year over year and about $400 million from the prior quarter. Source
  • Forward flow capacity down on maturity: Forward flow capacity fell about $300 million from the prior quarter, largely from the planned maturity of one fund with one funding partner. Source
  • Net cash rose to $1.4 billion: Net cash was $1.4 billion, up $373 million year over year, as cash and securities available for sale rose $350 million. Source

Cash flow and shareholder returns

  • Convertible note repurchase authorized: The board authorized repurchases of up to $176 million of 2026 convertible notes, out of $221 million outstanding. Source
  • No common stock buybacks this quarter: The company repurchased no common stock. Taxes paid on net share settlement of equity awards were $58 million, against $83 million a year earlier. Source
  • Operating cash flow rose: Net cash provided by operating activities was $386.5 million, against $210.4 million a year earlier. Source
  • Capital spending on software rose: Additions to property, equipment and software were $61.4 million, against $53.0 million a year earlier. Source

Strategy, AI productivity and people

  • Engineering re-tooled around AI: Affirm's development team took a full week to re-tool software engineering to be AI-first. Source
  • Productivity gain plausible, team modest growth: Management said an order of magnitude gain in development productivity is plausible, yet it expects to modestly grow the development team. Source
  • Engineering cycles are the constraint: Management said engineering cycles, not ideas, have always been the limiting factor for Affirm. Source
  • Ambitious initiatives and partnerships planned: Management described new initiatives, some expected not to work out, plus AI/ML research and upcoming partnerships. Source
  • International expansion not material in FY26: Expansion outside North America is included in guidance but is not expected to be a material growth contributor in fiscal 2026. Source
  • Team nearly 15 years in: Management said the company is nearly 15 years in and remains a tightly knit team on a mission. Source

Fiscal Q4 and fiscal 2026 guidance

  • GMV and revenue ranges set: Management guided fiscal Q4 GMV to $13.15 to $13.45 billion and revenue to $1,080 to $1,110 million, and fiscal 2026 GMV to $49.265 to $49.565 billion and revenue to $4,175 to $4,205 million. Source
  • RLTC and operating margin ranges set: Fiscal Q4 RLTC is guided to $535 to $550 million and operating margin to 9.5 to 11.5%. Fiscal 2026 RLTC is guided to $2,031 to $2,046 million and operating margin to 8.9 to 9.4%. Source
  • Adjusted operating margin ranges set: Adjusted operating margin is guided to 27.5 to 29.5% for fiscal Q4 and 28.2 to 28.8% for fiscal 2026. Source
  • Share count ranges set: Weighted average basic shares are guided to 341 million for fiscal Q4 and 336 million for fiscal 2026, and diluted shares to 352 million and 349 million. Source

Guidance assumptions

  • ECR ratio held below 5%: Management expects equity capital required as a percent of total platform portfolio to stay below 5%. Source
  • 0% APR mix assumed stable: Guidance assumes 0% APR GMV including Pay-in-X stays stable year over year in fiscal Q4 2026. Source
  • Short-term rates assumed flat: Guidance assumes short-term benchmark interest rates stay stable in fiscal Q4 2026 versus fiscal Q3 2026, based on the forward curve. Source

Coming up, as management said on 7 May 2026

  • Investor Forum on May 12: Management will update on vision, commercial and product initiatives, and the medium-term financial framework at the Investor Forum. Source
  • Big Nothing 0% APR event: The Big Nothing event runs May 13 to 15, with 0% APR offers from merchant partners. Source
  • Possible valuation allowance release: If earnings trajectory continues, management said there may be sufficient positive evidence to release a significant portion of the US deferred tax valuation allowance by end of fiscal 2026. Source
  • Evercore TMT conference: Affirm will attend the Evercore TMT Global Conference in San Francisco on June 3, 2026. Source
  • William Blair conference: Affirm will attend the William Blair Growth Stock Conference in Chicago on June 4, 2026. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
GMV Source$11.6 billion
Total transactions Source45 million
Active consumers Source26.8 million
Transactions per active consumer Source6.7
Active merchants Source515 thousand
Active cardholders Source4.4 million
Card attach rate Sourceapproximately 17%
Funding capacity Source$28.2 billion

Risks management discussed

  • External: Management referred to global economic uncertainty as the broader context for the quarter. Source
  • External: Management noted funding market volatility during the ABS pricing, though credit spreads tightened slightly versus the September transaction. Source
  • Demand: An enterprise merchant moved its Pay Later volumes to its own wallet, a transition management said was substantially completed in FQ1’26. Source
  • Operational: Infrastructure expenses rose $13 million, or 34%, which management tied to 45% growth in transaction count. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Met: Management said it replaced the maturing forward flow facility with a new one during 2025, leaving little net change in capacity with that partner. Source
  • On track: Recent monthly installment loan cohorts are tracking toward about 3.5% ultimate net charge-offs, which management called in line with expectations. Source
  • On track: Recent Pay in 4 vintages continue to track to loss rates below 1% of GMV. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.