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AES Corp.: Q4 FY2024 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2024, from the documents filed with the SEC on 28 February 2025: press release. Guidance figures: 4 new, 4 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Net income turned to $698 million: Net income was $698 million against a $182 million loss in 2023, with renewables placed in service, lower impairments and the AES Brasil gain cited as drivers. Source
  • Adjusted EPS rose to $2.14: Adjusted EPS was $2.14, up $0.38, against the 2024 guidance range of $1.87 to $1.97, on renewables, a lower adjusted tax rate and Utilities. Source
  • Adjusted EBITDA fell $189 million: Adjusted EBITDA was $2,639 million, down from $2,828 million in 2023, mainly on drought and Colombia outages at the Renewables segment. Source
  • 2025 growth drivers named: Management named new renewables, US utility rate base growth and normalized Colombia and Mexico results as the 2025 growth drivers. Source
  • Indiana base rates and 9.9% ROE: The IURC approved new base rates and a 9.9% ROE for AES Indiana, supporting an investment program aimed at reliability and local economic development. Source
  • AES Brasil stake sale closed: The company closed the sale of its 47.3% AES Brasil stake in October 2024 for about $630 million, and agreed to sell a 30% indirect interest in AES Ohio to CDPQ for about $546 million. Source

“2025 will be an inflection point for AES, as we expect to have strong growth in our renewables Adjusted EBITDA from the 6.6 GW that we completed in 2023 and 2024,”

Andrés Gluski, AES president and CEO

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Adjusted EBITDA Source2025$2,650 to $2,850 millionNew
Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes Source2025$3,950 to $4,350 millionNew
Adjusted EPS Source2025$2.10 to $2.26New
Adjusted EBITDA growth Sourceannualized through 2027, from 2023 guidance base5% to 7%Kept
Adjusted EPS growth Sourceannualized through 2027, from 2023 guidance base7% to 9%Kept
Adjusted EPS growth Sourceannualized through 2025, from 2020 base7% to 9%Kept
Renewables construction Source20253.2 GWNew
PPA signings target Source2023 to 202514 to 17 GW
Asset sale proceeds target Sourcethrough 2027$3.5 billionKept
Quarterly dividend Sourcegoing forward$0.17595

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2,650 to $2,850 million initiated. Source
  • New guidance: 2025 Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes expectation of $3,950 to $4,350 million initiated. Source
  • New guidance: 2025 Adjusted EPS guidance of $2.10 to $2.26 initiated. Source
  • New: AES Indiana received IURC approval for new base rates and a 9.9% ROE. This was not in the prior quarter's release. Source
  • New: 310 MW of retail supply for data centers in Ohio reported as a new item. Source

Full-year results and drivers

  • Net income turned to $698 million: Net income was $698 million against a $182 million loss in 2023, with renewables placed in service, lower impairments and the AES Brasil gain cited as drivers. Source
  • Diluted EPS reached $2.37: Diluted EPS from continuing operations was $2.37, mainly from lower impairments, renewables contributions, the AES Brasil gain and lower income tax expense. Source
  • Adjusted EPS rose to $2.14: Adjusted EPS was $2.14, up $0.38, against the 2024 guidance range of $1.87 to $1.97, on renewables, a lower adjusted tax rate and Utilities. Source
  • Tax attributes lifted EBITDA measure: Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes was $3,952 million, up $513 million, on higher realized tax attributes as more renewables projects came into service. Source

Adjusted EBITDA, segments and margins

  • Adjusted EBITDA fell $189 million: Adjusted EBITDA was $2,639 million, down from $2,828 million in 2023, mainly on drought and Colombia outages at the Renewables segment. Source
  • Utilities and new projects offset: Higher Utilities SBU contributions and higher Renewables revenue from new projects partly offset the Adjusted EBITDA decline, according to management. Source
  • Outages and interest costs weighed: Lower margins from outages, higher interest expense and lower interest income partly offset the Diluted EPS gain. Source
  • Southland prior-year margin weighed: Energy Infrastructure margins were lower on prior-year margin at hedged legacy Southland facilities, which are contracted for capacity. Source

“Our long-term plan is substantially de-risked, with nearly all of our growth through 2027 coming from projects already signed and in our backlog, or from rate base growth at our US utilities”

Stephen Coughlin, AES EVP and CFO

Growth, backlog and customers

  • 2025 growth drivers named: Management named new renewables, US utility rate base growth and normalized Colombia and Mexico results as the 2025 growth drivers. Source
  • Backlog underpins growth through 2027: The company described a backlog of about 11.9 GW of signed PPAs, with 85% due online by the end of 2027, as the basis for growth. Source
  • Renewables PPA signings reached 4.4 GW: Renewables PPA signings totaled 4.4 GW in 2024, tied to long-term contracts for new renewables projects. Source
  • Ohio data center load growth: Data center agreements added new load at AES Ohio, and management said the company is well placed to meet data center and manufacturing demand. Source

Projects, regulation and coal exits

  • Indiana base rates and 9.9% ROE: The IURC approved new base rates and a 9.9% ROE for AES Indiana, supporting an investment program aimed at reliability and local economic development. Source
  • Renewables built; gas plant completed: The company completed 3.0 GW of solar, storage and wind construction or acquisition in 2024, plus a 670 MW combined cycle gas plant in Panama. Source
  • Coal exits reached 13.4 GW: The company retired 481 MW of coal in Chile and the United States in 2024, bringing coal exits announced or closed since 2017 to 13.4 GW. Source
  • BloombergNEF ranked company first: BloombergNEF ranked the company first among clean energy providers to corporations globally, the third consecutive year as a top seller. Source

“As a result, I am very pleased to reaffirm our long-term growth rate targets for all metrics.”

Stephen Coughlin, AES EVP and CFO

Costs, cash and asset sales

  • Cost reductions from simplification: Management said it is starting to see benefits from significant cost reductions tied to simplifying and streamlining the businesses. Source
  • AES Brasil stake sale closed: The company closed the sale of its 47.3% AES Brasil stake in October 2024 for about $630 million, and agreed to sell a 30% indirect interest in AES Ohio to CDPQ for about $546 million. Source
  • Operating cash flow was lower: Net cash from operating activities was $2,752 million in 2024, against $3,034 million in 2023, per the cash flow statement. Source
  • Parent liquidity ended at $2,047 million: Parent Company liquidity was $2,047 million at December 31, 2024, including $265 million of cash at Parent and QHCs and $1,782 million of credit facility availability. Source

Dividends and subsidiary distributions

  • Dividends paid rose to $483 million: Dividends paid on common stock totaled $483 million in 2024, against $444 million in 2023, per the cash flow statement. Source
  • Parent distributions over four quarters: Total subsidiary distributions and returns of capital to the Parent were $1,633 million over the four quarters ended December 31, 2024. Source
  • Sales to noncontrolling interests fell: Sales to noncontrolling interests brought in $1,247 million in 2024, against $1,938 million in 2023. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Rate case SourceAES Indiana new base rates and 9.9% ROE approved
Rate base growth Sourcecited as a 2025 growth driver
Load growth Source2.1 GW of new data center load at AES Ohio
Capital plan Sourcecapital expenditures of $7,392 million in 2024
EPS growth target Source7% to 9% through 2027 from 2023 base

Risks management discussed

  • Financial: 2025 Adjusted EBITDA growth is expected to be partly offset by the Warrior Run PPA monetization in 2024 and by asset sales. Source
  • Financial: 2025 Adjusted EPS growth is expected to be partly offset by higher Parent interest and a higher adjusted tax rate. Source
  • External: Unrealized foreign currency losses in Argentina reduced the full-year Adjusted EPS reconciliation by $0.22 per share. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Met: The release headline states the company achieved its 2024 strategic and financial goals and initiated 2025 guidance. Source
  • On track: Management said the 10.0 GW signed in 2023 and 2024 keeps the 14 to 17 GW target for 2023 to 2025 on track. Source
  • Not stated: The third-quarter release expected 2024 Adjusted EBITDA toward the low end of the guidance range; the year-end release reports results separately.
  • Not stated: The third-quarter release expected 2024 Adjusted EPS and Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes in the upper half of their ranges.
  • Not stated: The third-quarter release said the company was on track to add 3.6 GW of projects in 2024; the year-end release reports full-year additions separately.
  • Not stated: The third-quarter release said nearly three-quarters of the $3.5 billion target had been announced or closed; the year-end release gives an updated figure.

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.