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Watsco Inc.: Q3 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q3 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 29 October 2025: press release. Guidance figures: 1 new, 1 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Revenue fell 4% in the quarter: Revenues were $2.07 billion, down 4% (3% domestically). Lower units were substantially offset by double-digit A2L pricing, plus growth in non-equipment and commercial refrigeration. Source
  • Gross margin reached a third-quarter record: Gross profit was $569 million, flat year over year. Gross margin rose 130 basis points to 27.5%, driven by pricing technology scaling and OEM pricing actions earlier in 2025. Source
  • Operating income fell 6%: Operating income fell 6% to $235 million, with operating margin of 11.4% against 11.6%. Diluted EPS was $3.98 against $4.22 a year earlier. Source
  • A2L pricing averaged about 15%: Price realization on new A2L products averaged about 15%, inclusive of mid-year OEM price actions, across the transition. Source
  • Operating costs rose with transition: Operating expenses rose on labor, facilities and transportation costs, partly tied to the A2L transition, and three businesses acquired so far in 2025. Source
  • Industry unit shipments declined meaningfully: AHRI data show meaningful declines in industry unit shipments, while Watsco's distributor volumes have been comparatively less volatile. Source
  • Record quarterly operating cash flow: Operating cash flow was a record $355 million in the third quarter and $170 million for the nine months, versus $394 million a year earlier. Source

“This has been one of the most challenging business environments in recent memory, and I am gratified that we have largely sustained our profitability, improved margins”

Albert H. Nahmad, Chairman and CEO

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
A2L transition timing Sourcethrough early 2026conclude in early 2026New
Institutional offering (Project WatscoOne) Sourceearly 2026begin offering in early 2026Kept

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: Management set a target for further inventory reductions in the fourth quarter, which the prior release did not include. Source
  • New guidance: Transition-related training, technology and logistics costs are not expected to recur in 2026. Source
  • New guidance: Management gave an early 2026 end date for the A2L transition, which the prior release did not state. Source
  • Guidance kept: The timing for the institutional WatscoOne offering stays early 2026, as in the prior release. Source
  • New: Management scheduled an investor day for December 11 to share more about the initiatives. Source
  • New: Inventory fell $351 million in the third quarter to $1.6 billion at September 30, 2025, from a $2.1 billion peak during 2025. Source

Third-quarter results and drivers

  • Revenue fell 4% in the quarter: Revenues were $2.07 billion, down 4% (3% domestically). Lower units were substantially offset by double-digit A2L pricing, plus growth in non-equipment and commercial refrigeration. Source
  • Gross margin reached a third-quarter record: Gross profit was $569 million, flat year over year. Gross margin rose 130 basis points to 27.5%, driven by pricing technology scaling and OEM pricing actions earlier in 2025. Source
  • Operating income fell 6%: Operating income fell 6% to $235 million, with operating margin of 11.4% against 11.6%. Diluted EPS was $3.98 against $4.22 a year earlier. Source
  • Nine-month gross profit rose 2%: Nine-month revenue fell 3% to $5.66 billion and gross profit rose 2% to $1.60 billion, while diluted EPS fell 4% to $10.48. Source

Segments and regions

  • U.S. and non-U.S. sales both fell: Sales in U.S. markets fell 3% and non-U.S. markets fell 14% in the quarter. For the nine months, U.S. sales fell 2% and non-U.S. sales fell 11%. Source
  • HVAC equipment sales fell 7%: HVAC equipment, 67% of sales, fell 7%. Other HVAC products, 29% of sales, rose 2%. Source
  • Commercial refrigeration rose 4%: Commercial refrigeration products, 4% of sales, rose 4% in the quarter. Source

“Gross profit, gross margin and operating cash flow for the quarter established new records, reflecting substantial progress toward optimizing inventories and positioning the Company to invest in growth alongside its OEM partners.”

Albert H. Nahmad, Chairman and CEO

Products, customers and digital platforms

  • A2L pricing averaged about 15%: Price realization on new A2L products averaged about 15%, inclusive of mid-year OEM price actions, across the transition. Source
  • Digital platform users up 18%: Authenticated HVAC Pro+ mobile app users grew 18% over the twelve months to September 30, 2025. Over 10,000 new A2L SKUs were added to the platforms. Source
  • E-commerce reaches above 60% in some regions: E-commerce sales were about $2.5 billion over the twelve months, and some regions exceed 60% e-commerce penetration. Source
  • OnCallAir GMV rose 15%: Contractors using OnCallAir generated $1.38 billion GMV in the nine months, up 15%. Twelve-month GMV was about $1.72 billion. Source
  • Non-equipment sourcing initiatives launched: Nearly half of HVAC/R products sold are non-equipment. Watsco is using product and pricing data to streamline sourcing across its supplier network. Source

Costs, margins and pricing

  • Operating costs rose with transition: Operating expenses rose on labor, facilities and transportation costs, partly tied to the A2L transition, and three businesses acquired so far in 2025. Source
  • Pricing platform supported gross margin: Management says the pricing optimization platform reacts quickly to market conditions and vendor cost changes, supporting record gross margin in 2025. Source
  • Nine-month gross margin set a record: Nine-month gross margin rose 140 basis points to a record 28.3%, while nine-month operating margin declined 10 basis points to 10.9%. Source

“Although short-term market conditions remain fluid, we operate a resilient business in a resilient industry”

Albert H. Nahmad, Chairman and CEO

Demand and industry shipments

  • Industry unit shipments declined meaningfully: AHRI data show meaningful declines in industry unit shipments, while Watsco's distributor volumes have been comparatively less volatile. Source
  • Consumer and housing softness weighed: Management cites overall weaker consumer spending and slower housing-related activity as compounding the transition's volatility. Source
  • Order trends held steady year over year: Management said order trends and the rate of improvement in customer attrition remain consistent year over year. Source

Cash flow and balance sheet

  • Record quarterly operating cash flow: Operating cash flow was a record $355 million in the third quarter and $170 million for the nine months, versus $394 million a year earlier. Source
  • Inventory eased from first-half peak: Inventory was $1.6 billion at September 30, against $1.39 billion at December 31, after the working-capital ramp in the first half. Source
  • Cash, investments and no debt: The release cites more than $640 million in cash and investments and no debt. The balance sheet lists $324 million cash and $200 million short-term cash investments. Source
  • Dividends and minority distributions paid: Nine-month dividends on common stock were $352 million and distributions to non-controlling interest were $70 million. Capital expenditures were $23 million. Source

Strategy, technology and investment

  • Technology investment run rate of $60 million: Watsco has invested over $250 million in technology over five years, at an annual run rate of $60 million. Source
  • Ask.Watsco serves as internal AI engine: Ask.Watsco is an internal AI engine designed to enhance productivity, decision-making and customer service; management cites rapid adoption. Source
  • AL.watsco serves customers directly: AL.watsco is a customer-facing AI model trained on Watsco's data sets, meant to deliver customized service at scale and attract new customers. Source
  • Logistics investment to lift service levels: Watsco has begun investing in advanced logistics and distribution to improve inventory service levels, attachment rates, efficiency and inventory turns. Source
  • Buy and build adds Sunbelt distributors: Three distributors were acquired in key Sunbelt markets in 2025. Since 2019, 12 acquired companies represent about $1.6 billion in annualized sales and 120 locations. Source
  • Platform investments set to lift profitability: A.J. Nahmad, President, said the incremental platform investments are intended to enhance growth with existing customers, attract new customers and lift profitability. Source

Coming up, as management said on 29 October 2025

  • Project WatscoOne institutional offering: Enterprise-wide solutions for institutional customers are expected to begin in early 2026. Source
  • Investor day on December 11: Management plans to share more about the initiatives at its investor day on December 11. Source
  • A2L transition concludes early 2026: Management states the A2L transition, which began in September 2024, will conclude in early 2026. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
HVAC Pro+ authenticated users Sourcemore than 72,000
E-commerce sales, trailing twelve months Sourceapproximately $2.5 billion (34% of sales)
Households quoted through OnCallAir, nine months Sourceapproximately 263,000
Non-equipment vendors, trailing twelve months Sourcemore than 1,500
Ask.Watsco internal users Sourceover 2,100
Technologists employed Sourceclose to 300

Risks management discussed

  • Demand: Management cites weaker consumer spending and slower housing-related activity as compounding transition-related volatility. Source
  • Operational: The A2L transition has created volatility across sales, industry shipments and distributor inventories. Source
  • Regulatory: The A2L regulatory mandate affected nearly 55% of products and required converting over $1 billion of inventory across more than 650 U.S. locations. Source
  • Financial: Working capital tied up in inventory depends on the fourth-quarter reductions management is targeting. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Not stated: Management said it set in motion incremental platform investments earlier this year, aimed at growth with existing customers. Source
  • Not stated: The prior release expected transition impacts to diminish as the market converted over the second half of 2025. The third-quarter release does not restate that timing.
  • Not stated: Management restated its goal of annual operating cash flow above net income, consistent with its long-term track record. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.