greeksoup/ stock research

Union Pacific Corp.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 27 January 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 1 lowered. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Full year net income and EPS rose: Full year 2025 net income was $7.1 billion, up 6%, and diluted EPS was $11.98, up 8% from $11.09 in 2024. Source
  • Fourth quarter land sales lifted EPS: Fourth quarter net income of $1.8 billion included $234 million of industrial park land sales and $30 million of merger costs; diluted EPS was $3.11. Source
  • Fourth quarter operating ratio rose: Reported fourth quarter operating ratio was 60.5%, up 180 basis points from 58.7%; adjusted operating ratio was 60.0%. Source
  • Fourth quarter revenue declined on volume: Operating revenue of $6.1 billion fell 1% in the fourth quarter; lower volume was partly offset by core pricing gains and fuel surcharge revenue. Source
  • Free cash flow fell to $2.3 billion: Free cash flow was $2.29 billion for 2025, against $2.81 billion in 2024, as capital investments rose to $3.79 billion from $3.45 billion. Source
  • Transcontinental railroad awaits regulatory process: Management said it is working through the regulatory process to create America's first transcontinental railroad; the release does not give a closing date. Source
  • Earnings growth guided to mid-single digit: For 2026 management guided earnings per share growth to mid-single digit, consistent with the three-year target of high-single digit to low-double digit through 2027. Source

“We had a record-breaking year and delivered best-ever safety, service, and operating results in 2025,”

Jim Vena, Union Pacific Chief Executive Officer

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Capital plan Source2026$3.3 billionLowered from $3.4 billion

What changed from last quarter

  • Guidance lowered: Capital plan moved to $3.3 billion for 2026, from $3.4 billion for 2025 in the third quarter release. Source
  • New guidance: Mid-single digit earnings per share growth is stated for 2026; the third quarter release used the three-year target wording instead. Source
  • Guidance kept: The three-year earnings per share target is stated as high-single digit to low-double digit through 2027, as in the third quarter release.

Full year and fourth quarter results

  • Full year net income and EPS rose: Full year 2025 net income was $7.1 billion, up 6%, and diluted EPS was $11.98, up 8% from $11.09 in 2024. Source
  • Fourth quarter land sales lifted EPS: Fourth quarter net income of $1.8 billion included $234 million of industrial park land sales and $30 million of merger costs; diluted EPS was $3.11. Source
  • Adjusted full year EPS improved: Adjusted full year net income grew 3% and adjusted diluted EPS rose 5%, with adjusted diluted EPS of $11.66 against $11.11. Source

Operating ratio and service

  • Fourth quarter operating ratio rose: Reported fourth quarter operating ratio was 60.5%, up 180 basis points from 58.7%; adjusted operating ratio was 60.0%. Source
  • Full year operating ratio improved: Full year reported operating ratio was 59.8%, an improvement of 10 basis points; adjusted operating ratio was 59.3%, 60 basis points better. Source
  • Dwell time and car velocity improved: Average terminal dwell was 19.8 hours in the fourth quarter, an improvement of 9%; freight car velocity was 239 daily miles per car, up 9%. Source
  • Safety rates improved in 2025: Reportable personal injury and derailment rates both improved, and management described the personal injury rate as industry-leading. Source

“Our 2025 reported net income grew 6%, earnings per share increased 8%, and we improved our operating ratio.”

Jim Vena, Union Pacific Chief Executive Officer

Freight revenue by segment

  • Premium revenue fell on intermodal: Fourth quarter premium revenue fell 6%, with intermodal down 9%; full year premium revenue fell 2%, with intermodal down 2%. Source
  • Bulk revenue rose on coal and renewables: Bulk freight revenue rose 3% in the fourth quarter, with coal and renewables up 23%; full year bulk revenue rose 5%. Source
  • Industrial chemicals and metals grew: Industrial revenue rose 1% in the fourth quarter; industrial chemicals and plastics rose 5% and metals and minerals rose 7%. Source
  • Intermodal and premium carloads fell: In the fourth quarter, intermodal carloads fell 12% and premium carloads fell 10%. Source

Costs, margins and pricing

  • Fuel price fell over the year: Average fuel price per gallon consumed was $2.49 in the fourth quarter, up 3%; the full year average was $2.49, down 6%. Source
  • Other income rose sharply in quarter: Other income, net was $332 million in the fourth quarter against $68 million a year earlier; full year other income was $629 million against $350 million. Source

Revenue, volume and pricing

  • Fourth quarter revenue declined on volume: Operating revenue of $6.1 billion fell 1% in the fourth quarter; lower volume was partly offset by core pricing gains and fuel surcharge revenue. Source
  • Full year revenue rose on pricing: Full year operating revenue of $24.5 billion rose 1% on core pricing gains and higher volume, offset by business mix, lower fuel surcharge and lower other revenue. Source
  • Average revenue per car rose 4%: Average revenue per car was $2,778 in the fourth quarter, up 4%; revenue carloads were 2,073 thousand, a 4% decline. Source

Capital, cash and shareholder returns

  • Free cash flow fell to $2.3 billion: Free cash flow was $2.29 billion for 2025, against $2.81 billion in 2024, as capital investments rose to $3.79 billion from $3.45 billion. Source
  • Operating cash flow held near flat: Cash provided by operating activities was $9.29 billion in 2025, against $9.35 billion in 2024. Source
  • Share repurchases rose in 2025: Share repurchase programs totaled $2.68 billion in 2025, against $1.51 billion in 2024, alongside dividends paid of $3.24 billion. Source
  • Dividend declared per share up 3%: Dividends declared were $1.38 per share in the fourth quarter, up 3%, and $5.44 for the full year, up 3%. Source
  • Return on invested capital reached 16.3%: Return on invested capital as adjusted was 16.3% for 2025, up from 15.8% in 2024. Source

Norfolk Southern transaction and focus

  • Transcontinental railroad awaits regulatory process: Management said it is working through the regulatory process to create America's first transcontinental railroad; the release does not give a closing date. Source
  • Share repurchases paused in third quarter: The third quarter 2025 release listed share repurchases as paused for the Norfolk Southern merger; the fourth quarter release does not mention repurchases.
  • Record year in safety and service: Management described 2025 as a record year, with best-ever safety, service and operating results, while pursuing the combination. Source

2026 guidance and targets

  • Earnings growth guided to mid-single digit: For 2026 management guided earnings per share growth to mid-single digit, consistent with the three-year target of high-single digit to low-double digit through 2027. Source
  • Operating ratio and returns targets: Management listed operating ratio improvement, an industry-leading operating ratio and return on invested capital among its 2026 items. Source
  • Dividend increases in capital allocation: Under capital allocation, management listed consistent annual dividend increases among its 2026 priorities. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Revenue carloads Source2,073 thousand in Q4, down 4%; 8,447 thousand for full year, up 1%
Average revenue per car Source$2,778 in Q4, up 4%
Operating ratio Source60.5% in Q4; 59.8% full year
Fuel price per gallon Source$2.49 in Q4, up 3%
Freight car velocity (fleet) Source239 daily miles per car in Q4, up 9%

Risks management discussed

  • Demand: Management referred to a muted economic forecast when discussing 2026 customer demand. Source
  • Regulatory: Management said the transcontinental railroad plan still depends on working through the regulatory process. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • On track: Management said results are on track with its Investor Day targets. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.