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Starling Oncology, Inc.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 12 March 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 4 new, 2 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Fourth-quarter revenue up 41.6%: Revenue was $142.0 million against $100.3 million a year earlier, and gross profit was $22.7 million, up 55.2%. Source
  • Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA was positive: Adjusted EBITDA was $147 thousand, against $(7.8) million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure, reconciled in the release. Source
  • 2026 guidance ranges provided: Management gave full-year 2026 ranges for revenue, gross profit, Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, and expects about $150 million of capitated revenue. Source
  • Specialty pharmacy drove most growth: Specialty pharmacy revenue was $81.4 million in the quarter against $47.6 million, and $269.2 million for the year against $179.9 million. Patient services rose to $59.8 million. Source
  • Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guided negative: Management expects first-quarter 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $(1) million to $(3) million, citing seasonality from patient deductible resets and annual drug price increases. Source
  • Cash balance fell to $33.6 million: Cash and equivalents ended the year at $33.6 million, down from $49.7 million at December 31, 2024. Source

“2025 was an incredibly productive year for The Oncology Institute.”

Daniel Virnich, CEO of TOI

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Gross profit Sourcefiscal year 2026$97 to $107 millionNew
Adjusted EBITDA Sourcefiscal year 2026$0 to $9 millionKept
Free cash flow Sourcefiscal year 2026$(15) to $5 millionNew
Capitated revenue Sourcefiscal year 2026approximately $150 millionKept
Adjusted EBITDA Sourcefirst quarter 2026$(1) million to $(3) millionNew
Specialty pharmacy revenue Sourcefiscal year 2026approximately $27 million per month, plus 3-5% incremental growthNew

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: Gross profit and free cash flow ranges were added to 2026 guidance; neither appeared in the January 2026 release. Source
  • New guidance: A first-quarter 2026 Adjusted EBITDA range was added. Source
  • New guidance: A specialty pharmacy revenue assumption for 2026 was added. Source
  • Guidance kept: Revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and capitated revenue ranges match the January 2026 figures; management reaffirmed full-year positive Adjusted EBITDA. Source
  • New: Capitation agreements were initiated with Humana and CarePlus in Florida in the fourth quarter, covering about 22,000 additional Medicare Advantage lives in South Florida. Source
  • New: Two directors were added to the board, Mark Stolper and Kim Tzoumakas. Source
  • New: The company plans to launch a proprietary network provider portal in 2026. Source

Fourth quarter and full-year results

  • Fourth-quarter revenue up 41.6%: Revenue was $142.0 million against $100.3 million a year earlier, and gross profit was $22.7 million, up 55.2%. Source
  • Quarterly net loss narrowed: Net loss was $7.5 million, or $(0.06) per share, against a $13.2 million loss, or $(0.14) per share, in the fourth quarter of 2024. Source
  • Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA was positive: Adjusted EBITDA was $147 thousand, against $(7.8) million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure, reconciled in the release. Source
  • Full-year revenue up 27.8%: Full-year revenue was $502.7 million and gross profit $76.4 million, up 41.6%. The full-year net loss was $60.6 million against $64.7 million. Source
  • Full-year Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed: Full-year Adjusted EBITDA was $(12.4) million, against $(35.7) million. Basic and diluted loss per share was $(0.54), against $(0.71). Source
  • 2026 guidance ranges provided: Management gave full-year 2026 ranges for revenue, gross profit, Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, and expects about $150 million of capitated revenue. Source

Segments and clinic footprint

  • Specialty pharmacy drove most growth: Specialty pharmacy revenue was $81.4 million in the quarter against $47.6 million, and $269.2 million for the year against $179.9 million. Patient services rose to $59.8 million. Source
  • Clinical trials revenue declined: Clinical trials and other revenue was $0.7 million in the quarter and $4.6 million for the year, against $8.6 million. The company wrote off $2.4 million of clinical trials segment assets in 2025. Source
  • Clinic count rose to 146: Affiliated and network clinics reached 146 from 86 a year earlier, across 17 markets against 16. Source

“Our growing scale, steady working capital management, and clinical pathways, all contributed to the fourth quarter marking a significant milestone on our path to becoming a profitable public company.”

Daniel Virnich, CEO of TOI

Capitation and payor partnerships

  • Nine capitated contracts added in 2025: Nine new capitated contracts in California, Florida and Nevada were started in 2025, representing about 260,000 additional lives under management. Source
  • Elevance Florida expansion continuing: The Elevance Florida partnership was ramped in the fourth quarter. Management said 2026 expansion across the state would more than double the current partnership. Source
  • Value-based lives rose to 2.0 million: Lives under value-based contracts were 2.0 million at year-end, against 1.9 million a year earlier. Source

Costs and gross margin

  • Specialty pharmacy direct costs climbed: Specialty pharmacy direct costs were $66.5 million in the quarter against $39.5 million, and $220.6 million for the year against $151.2 million. Patient services direct costs were $52.7 million in the quarter. Source
  • Quarterly SG&A rose, annual SG&A fell: Selling, general and administrative expense was $28.0 million in the quarter against $24.9 million, and $105.6 million for the year against $107.8 million. Source
  • Interest expense increased: Net interest expense was $1.9 million in the quarter against $1.2 million, and $11.3 million for the year against $7.5 million. Source
  • Derivative fair-value charge for year: The change in fair value of conversion option derivative liabilities was a $12.2 million charge for the year, against a $2.7 million gain, and a $1.1 million gain in the quarter. Source

“We remain well-positioned to expand payor partnerships and deliver sustainable growth as we execute on our strategic goals”

Daniel Virnich, CEO of TOI

Seasonality and cash timing

  • Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guided negative: Management expects first-quarter 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $(1) million to $(3) million, citing seasonality from patient deductible resets and annual drug price increases. Source
  • Drug pricing reimbursement lags: Management said pharmaceutical reimbursement adjustments operate on a lagged basis from pricing, so annual drug price increases are not immediately reflected in reimbursement rates. Source
  • Q4 operating cash tied to working capital: Operating cash flow was about $3.2 million in the quarter, which management attributed to working capital management and a higher gross profit margin. Source

Cash, debt and share count

  • Free cash flow for year: Free cash flow was $(23.9) million for the year, against $(25.8) million. Operating cash use was $(24.6) million and capital expenditures were $3.2 million. Source
  • Cash balance fell to $33.6 million: Cash and equivalents ended the year at $33.6 million, down from $49.7 million at December 31, 2024. Source
  • Equity raised and debt repaid: The company received $15.4 million net from a private placement and $13.8 million net from its at-the-market offering in 2025, and repaid $20.0 million of long-term debt. Source
  • Stockholders' deficit and higher share count: Total stockholders' equity was a deficit of $(15.7) million, against equity of $3.6 million a year earlier. Shares outstanding were 98.9 million, against 75.7 million. Source

Strategy and scale

  • Focus on execution and scale: Management said its 2026 priorities are execution, enhancing scale and delivering profitable growth. Source
  • Delegated capitated model named as catalyst: Management named continued expansion of its capitated care model through delegated arrangements as the primary catalyst for 2025. Source
  • Clinician base larger than January: The company now describes over 300 employed and affiliate clinicians, up from over 180 in the January 2026 release, across over 100 clinics and affiliate locations. Source

Coming up, as management said on 12 March 2026

  • Specialty pharmacy growth from new lives: Management expects 3-5% incremental specialty pharmacy growth in 2026 from new capitation lives captured in TOI clinics. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Lives under value-based contracts (millions) Source2.0 at December 31, 2025; 1.9 a year earlier
Patient population Sourceapproximately 2.0 million patients

Risks management discussed

  • Financial: First-quarter 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is guided to a loss, attributed to seasonality and the lag in reimbursement for drug price increases. Source
  • Financial: Management said certain non-GAAP reconciling items are uncertain and could significantly affect future GAAP results. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • On track: Management said the Elevance Florida expansion remains on track for 2026. Source
  • Not stated: Management reaffirmed its expectation of full-year positive Adjusted EBITDA in 2026, with no status given beyond the reaffirmation. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.