Progressive Corp.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 28 January 2026: press release. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

Quarter net income up 25%: Quarter net income was $2,951 million against $2,356 million, up 25%. December net income was $1,147 million against $942 million, up 22%. Source
Quarter combined ratio 88.0: Quarter combined ratio was 88.0 against 87.9 a year earlier, up 0.1 points. December combined ratio was 87.1 against 84.1. Source
Full-year premiums led by direct auto: Full-year net premiums written were $39,631 million in direct auto, up 19%, and $29,825 million in agency auto, up 11%. Commercial Lines were $10,613 million, down 3%. Source
Full-year calendar-year loss ratio 65.9: Full-year calendar-year loss and LAE ratio was 65.9, against an accident-year ratio of 67.6. Prior accident years development was favorable for the year. Source
December credit expense $125 million: The company recorded $125 million of policyholder credit expense in December, shown as a separate line in the monthly income statement. Source
Book value per share $51.74: Book value per common share was $51.74 at December 31, against $60.45 at September 30. Trailing 12-month return on average common equity was 35.3% on net income. Source

“The Company has no additional commentary regarding December’s results.”
Progressive Corp., press release

What changed from last quarter

New: Policyholder credit expense for the full year was $1,224 million, against $950 million booked through September; December added $125 million. Source

Quarter earnings and growth

Quarter net income up 25%: Quarter net income was $2,951 million against $2,356 million, up 25%. December net income was $1,147 million against $942 million, up 22%. Source
Quarter per-share earnings $5.02: Quarter per-share earnings available to common shareholders were $5.02 against $4.01. December per-share earnings were $1.95 against $1.60. Source
Quarter combined ratio 88.0: Quarter combined ratio was 88.0 against 87.9 a year earlier, up 0.1 points. December combined ratio was 87.1 against 84.1. Source
Quarter realized gains positive: Pretax net realized gains on securities were $257 million for the quarter, against a $53 million loss. December gains were $168 million against a $140 million loss. Source
Quarter premiums earned up 10%: Net premiums earned were $21,093 million for the quarter, up 10% from $19,144 million a year earlier. Source
Full-year net income $11,308 million: Full-year net income was $11,308 million against $8,480 million. Full-year diluted EPS was $19.23 against $14.40. Source

Segments and policies in force

Policies in force up 10%: Personal Lines policies in force reached 37,428 thousand, up 11%. Commercial Lines reached 1,191 thousand, up 4%. Companywide policies were 38,619 thousand, up 10%. Source
Agency and direct auto policy growth: Agency auto policies rose 10% to 10,787 thousand. Direct auto rose 14% to 15,993 thousand. Special lines were 6,998 thousand, up 7%. Source
Full-year premiums led by direct auto: Full-year net premiums written were $39,631 million in direct auto, up 19%, and $29,825 million in agency auto, up 11%. Commercial Lines were $10,613 million, down 3%. Source
December premiums by business: December net premiums written were $3,141 million in direct auto, up 11%, and $2,336 million in agency auto, up 2%. Commercial Lines were $626 million, growth of 0%. Source

“The estimated liability will continue to be refined through the end of the fourth quarter 2025, given the continuing exposure to potential significant storm activity through the Atlantic hurricane season”
Progressive Corp.

Loss ratios and expenses

Full-year calendar-year loss ratio 65.9: Full-year calendar-year loss and LAE ratio was 65.9, against an accident-year ratio of 67.6. Prior accident years development was favorable for the year. Source
December loss ratios: December calendar-year loss and LAE ratio was 65.8, against an accident-year ratio of 68.3. Source
December loss and expense amounts: December losses and loss adjustment expenses were $4,697 million, policy acquisition costs were $530 million and other underwriting expenses were $955 million. Source
Expense ratios by business: December expense ratio was 21.3 companywide. Personal Lines agency was 20.2, direct 21.2 and property 31.5. Commercial Lines was 21.6. Source

Florida policyholder credits

December credit expense $125 million: The company recorded $125 million of policyholder credit expense in December, shown as a separate line in the monthly income statement. Source
Credit tied to Florida profit limit: The September release said the credit reflects profit above a Florida statutory limit for 2023 to 2025, and that it is the company's current estimate.
Florida policyholder count: The September release counted about 2.7 million personal auto policyholders active in Florida at September 30, 2025.

Investment results and yields

Book yield 4.3% in December: Pretax annualized investment income book yield was 4.3% in December, 4.1% for the full year, and 3.9% a year earlier. Source
Full-year portfolio return 7.3%: Full-year fully taxable equivalent total portfolio return was 7.3%, with fixed-income 7.0% and common stocks 16.8%. The prior-year total portfolio return was 4.6%. Source
Unrealized gains fell in December: Net unrealized pretax gains on fixed-maturity securities were $148 million at December 31, down $494 million in December and up $1,938 million from December 2024. Source
Duration and credit quality: Fixed-income portfolio duration was 3.4 and weighted average credit quality was AA-. Source

Capital, buybacks and book value

December buybacks of 49,100 shares: The company repurchased 49,100 common shares in December at an average cost of $227.55 per share. The September release showed 14,587 shares at $242.04. Source
Book value per share $51.74: Book value per common share was $51.74 at December 31, against $60.45 at September 30. Trailing 12-month return on average common equity was 35.3% on net income. Source
Debt and equity balances: Debt was $6,897 million and shareholders' equity was $30,323 million at December 31. Debt-to-total capital ratio was 18.5%, against 16.3% at September 30. Source

Coming up, as management said on 28 January 2026

Fourth-quarter call on March 3: Investor Relations call is set for Tuesday, March 3, 2026 at 9:30 a.m. eastern, lasting 90 minutes, with CEO Tricia Griffith and CFO John Sauerland. Source
2025 Form 10-K and Shareholders' Report: The company plans to post its 2025 Shareholders' Report online and file its Annual Report on Form 10-K with the SEC on Monday, March 2, 2026. Source
January results release date: January results will be released on Wednesday, February 18, 2026, before the market opens. Source

Figures management reported

Figure	Reported
Combined ratio Source	88.0 quarter (87.9 prior-year quarter); 87.1 December; 87.4 full year
Net premiums written Source	$19,508 million quarter (up 8%); $83,174 million full year (up 12%)
Prior-year reserve development Source	$1,394 million favorable full year; $181 million favorable December
Catastrophe losses Source	1.8 points full year; 0.2 points December (net catastrophe loss ratio)
Investment income Source	$3,583 million full year; $333 million December
Book value per share Source	$51.74 at December 31, 2025; $60.45 at September 30, 2025

Risks management discussed

Operational: The Florida liability estimate may still change as reserve development and losses for applicable accident years develop through the first quarter of 2026.
External: Storm activity through the Atlantic hurricane season, which ran into late November 2025, was cited as a continuing exposure for the Florida estimate.

Earlier plans management reported on

Not stated: The September release expected credits to be provided in early 2026. The December release does not restate this timing.

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.

As filed with the SEC

Open the filing on EDGAR

PROGRESSIVE REPORTS DECEMBER RESULTS

MAYFIELD VILLAGE, OHIO -- January 28, 2026 -- The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) today reported the following results for the month and quarter ended December 31, 2025:

	December							Quarter
(millions, except per share amounts and ratios; unaudited)		2025		2024	Change				2025		2024	Change
Net premiums written	$6,313		$5,964		6%			$19,508		$18,105		8%
Net premiums earned	$7,121		$6,717		6%			$21,093		$19,144		10%
Net income	$1,147		$942		22%			$2,951		$2,356		25%
Per share available to common shareholders	$1.95		$1.60		22%			$5.02		$4.01		25%
Total pretax net realized gains (losses) on securities	$168		$(140)		(220)%			$257		$(53)			NM
Combined ratio		87.1		84.1	3.0		pts.		88.0		87.9	0.1		pts.
Average diluted equivalent common shares		588.0		587.7		0%			588.0		587.7		0%
NM = Not Meaningful

	December 31,
(thousands; unaudited)	2025	2024	% Change
Policies in Force
Personal Lines
Agency - auto	10,787	9,778	10
Direct - auto	15,993	13,996	14
Special lines	6,998	6,520	7
Property	3,650	3,517	4
Total Personal Lines	37,428	33,811	11
Commercial Lines	1,191	1,141	4
Total	38,619	34,952	10

Progressive offers personal and commercial insurance throughout the United States. Our Personal Lines business writes insurance for personal vehicles (auto and special lines products) and personal property insurance for homeowners and renters. Our Commercial Lines business writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance, business-related general liability and commercial property insurance predominantly for small businesses, and workers’ compensation insurance primarily for the transportation industry.

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

COMPREHENSIVE INCOME STATEMENT

For the month ended December 31, 2025

(millions)

	Current Month	Comments on Monthly Results
Net premiums written	$6,313
Revenues:
Net premiums earned	$7,121
Investment income	333
Net realized gains (losses) on securities:
Net realized gains (losses) on security sales	216
Net holding period gains (losses) on securities	(48)
Net impairment losses	0
Total net realized gains (losses) on securities	168
Fees and other revenues	102
Service revenues	39
Total revenues	7,763
Expenses:
Losses and loss adjustment expenses	4,697
Policy acquisition costs	530
Other underwriting expenses	955
Policyholder credit expense	125
Investment expenses	3
Service expenses	40
Interest expense	23
Total expenses	6,373
Income before income taxes	1,390
Provision for income taxes	243	Includes $44 million of tax benefits primarily related to dividends that were declared in December on shares held in our ESOP within the 401(k) that are deductible for income tax purposes.
Net income	1,147
Other comprehensive income (loss):
Change in total net unrealized gains (losses) on fixed-maturity securities	(396)
Total comprehensive income (loss)	$751

For a description of our financial reporting and accounting policies as it applies to information contained throughout this release, see Note 1 to our 2024 audited consolidated financial statements included in our 2024 Shareholders’ Report, which can be found at www.progressive.com/annualreport.

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

COMPREHENSIVE INCOME STATEMENTS

For the year ended December 31,

(millions)

	Full Year
	2025	2024
Net premiums written	$83,174	$74,424
Revenues:
Net premiums earned	$81,661	$70,799
Investment income	3,583	2,832
Net realized gains (losses) on securities:
Net realized gains (losses) on security sales	248	(414)
Net holding period gains (losses) on securities	480	679
Net impairment losses	(1)	(1)
Total net realized gains (losses) on securities	727	264
Fees and other revenues	1,196	1,064
Service revenues	504	413
Total revenues	87,671	75,372
Expenses:
Losses and loss adjustment expenses	53,959	49,060
Policy acquisition costs	6,096	5,383
Other underwriting expenses	11,329	9,462
Policyholder credit expense	1,224	0
Investment expenses	34	29
Service expenses	528	446
Interest expense	278	279
Total expenses	73,448	64,659
Income before income taxes	14,223	10,713
Provision for income taxes	2,915	2,233
Net income	11,308	8,480
Other comprehensive income (loss):
Changes in:
Total net unrealized gains (losses) on fixed-maturity securities	1,525	193
Net unrealized losses on forecasted transactions	1	0
Other comprehensive income (loss)	1,526	193
Total comprehensive income (loss)	$12,834	$8,673

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

COMPUTATION OF NET INCOME AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME PER SHARE

INVESTMENT RESULTS

For the month and year ended December 31,

(millions - except per share amounts)

	December		Full Year
	2025		2025		2024
The following table sets forth the computation of per share results:
Net income	$1,147		$11,308		$8,480
Less: Preferred share dividends and other	0		0		17
Net income available to common shareholders	$1,147		$11,308		$8,463
Per common share:
Basic	$1.96		$19.29		$14.45
Diluted	$1.95		$19.23		$14.40
Comprehensive income (loss)	$751		$12,834		$8,673
Less: Preferred share dividends and other	0		0		17
Comprehensive income (loss) attributable to common shareholders	$751		$12,834		$8,656
Per common share:
Diluted	$1.28		$21.82		$14.73
Average common shares outstanding - Basic		586.3		586.3		585.5
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation		1.7		1.8		2.2
Total average equivalent common shares - Diluted		588.0		588.1		587.7

	December	Full Year
	2025	2025	2024
The following table sets forth the investment results for the period:
Fully taxable equivalent (FTE) total return:
Fixed-income securities	0.0%	7.0%	3.8%
Common stocks	0.0%	16.8%	22.9%
Total portfolio	0.0%	7.3%	4.6%
Pretax annualized investment income book yield	4.3%	4.1%	3.9%

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION

For the month ended December 31, 2025

($ in millions)

	Personal Lines Business								Commercial
	Vehicles								Lines		Companywide
	Agency		Direct		Property		Total		Business		Total
Current Month
Net Premiums Written	$2,336		$3,141		$210		$5,687		$626		$6,313
% Growth in NPW		2%		11%		(5)%		7%		0%		6%
Net Premiums Earned	$2,559		$3,425		$248		$6,232		$888		$7,121
% Growth in NPE		5%		12%		(3)%		8%		(7)%		6%
GAAP Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio	67.4		70.0		33.1		67.4		54.5		65.8
Expense ratio	20.2		21.2		31.5		21.2		21.6		21.3
Combined ratio	87.6		91.2		64.6		88.6		76.1		87.1
Net catastrophe loss ratio				0.2	0.4		0.2		0.1		0.2
Actuarial Adjustments
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
Prior accident years											$63
Current accident year											164
Calendar year actuarial adjustment	$49		$82		$25		$156		$71		$227
Prior Accident Years Development
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
Actuarial adjustment											$63
All other development											118
Total development											$181
Calendar year loss/LAE ratio											65.8
Accident year loss/LAE ratio											68.3

Represents catastrophe losses incurred during the period, including development on prior events and the impact of reinsurance, if any, as a percent of net premiums earned.

Represents adjustments solely based on our normally scheduled actuarial reviews. For our Personal Lines property business, the actuarial reserving methodology includes changes to catastrophe losses, while the reviews in our personal and commercial vehicle businesses do not include catastrophes.

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION

For the year ended December 31, 2025

($ in millions)

	Personal Lines Business								Commercial
	Vehicles								Lines		Companywide
	Agency		Direct		Property		Total		Business		Total
Full Year
Net Premiums Written	$29,825		$39,631		$3,102		$72,558		$10,613		$83,174
% Growth in NPW		11%		19%		1%		14%		(3)%		12%
Net Premiums Earned	$29,382		$38,280		$3,116		$70,778		$10,881		$81,661
% Growth in NPE		15%		22%		4%		18%		2%		15%
GAAP Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio	65.3		68.0		45.7		65.9		66.4		65.9
Expense ratio	20.1		22.1		29.4		21.6		20.6		21.5
Combined ratio	85.4		90.1		75.1		87.5		87.0		87.4
Net catastrophe loss ratio				1.6	10.4		2.0		0.4		1.8
Actuarial Adjustments
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
Prior accident years											$317
Current accident year											390
Calendar year actuarial adjustment	$228		$288		$109		$625		$79		$707
Prior Accident Years Development
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
Actuarial adjustment											$317
All other development											1,077
Total development											$1,394
Calendar year loss/LAE ratio											65.9
Accident year loss/LAE ratio											67.6

Represents catastrophe losses incurred during the year, including development on prior events and the impact of reinsurance, as a percent of net premiums earned.

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

BALANCE SHEET AND OTHER INFORMATION

(millions - except per share amounts and common shares repurchased)

	December 31, 2025
CONDENSED GAAP BALANCE SHEET:
Investments, at fair value:
Available-for-sale securities:
Fixed maturities(amortized cost: $82,704)	$82,866
Short-term investments (amortized cost: $10,005)	10,005
Total available-for-sale securities	92,871
Equity securities:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks (cost: $419)	404
Common equities (cost: $819)	4,098
Total equity securities	4,502
Total investments2, 3	97,373
Net premiums receivable	15,362
Reinsurance recoverables (including $3,807 on unpaid loss and LAE reserves)	4,083
Deferred acquisition costs	2,044
Other assets	4,177
Total assets	$123,039
Unearned premiums	$25,219
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves	43,310
Dividends payable on common shares	7,972
Other liabilities	9,318
Debt	6,897
Total liabilities	92,716
Shareholders’ equity	30,323
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity	$123,039
Common shares outstanding	586.1
Common shares repurchased in the current month	49,100
Average cost per common share	$227.55
Book value per common share	$51.74
Trailing 12-month return on average common shareholders’ equity
Net income	35.3%
Comprehensive income	40.1%
Net unrealized pretax gains (losses) on fixed-maturity securities	$148
Increase (decrease) from the previous month	$(494)
Increase (decrease) from December 2024	$1,938
Debt-to-total capital ratio	18.5%
Fixed-income portfolio duration	3.4
Weighted average credit quality	AA- .

As of December 31, 2025, we held certain hybrid securities and recognized a change in fair value of $14 million as a realized gain during the period we held these securities.

Includes $200 million of net unsettled security transactions classified in “other liabilities.”

Includes $13 billion, net of unsettled transactions, of investments in a consolidated, non-insurance subsidiary of the holding company.

Monthly Commentary

The Company has no additional commentary regarding December’s results.

Events

Our fourth quarter Investor Relations conference call is currently scheduled to be held on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, at 9:30 a.m. eastern time. This event, which will consist of both a conference call and webcast, is scheduled to last 90 minutes and will begin with an approximate 45-minute presentation on capital and investments, followed by a question and answer session with Tricia Griffith, our CEO, and John Sauerland, our CFO. We plan to post our 2025 Shareholders’ Report online and file our Annual Report on Form 10-K with the SEC on Monday, March 2, 2026. If the dates of our events, which are always subject to change, are rescheduled, we will announce the change in a press release as soon as practical and publish it on our investor website. Details regarding access to the conference call, or any event changes, will be available at: https://investors.progressive.com/events.

We plan to release January results on Wednesday, February 18, 2026, before the market opens.

About Progressive

Progressive Insurance® makes it easy to understand, buy and use car insurance, home insurance, and other protection needs. Progressive offers choices so consumers can reach us however it’s most convenient for them - online at progressive.com, by phone at 1-800-PROGRESSIVE, via the Progressive mobile app, or in-person with a local agent.

Progressive provides insurance for personal and commercial autos and trucks, motorcycles, boats, recreational vehicles, and homes; it is the second largest personal auto insurer in the country, a leading seller of commercial auto, motorcycle, and boat insurance, and one of the top 15 homeowners insurance carriers.

Founded in 1937, Progressive continues its long history of offering shopping tools and services that save customers time and money, like Name Your Price®, Snapshot®, and HomeQuote Explorer®.

The Common Shares of The Progressive Corporation, the Mayfield Village, Ohio-based holding company, trade publicly at NYSE: PGR.

Regulation FD Disclosure Outlets

The Company disseminates information to the public about the Company, its products, services and other matters through various outlets in order to achieve broad, non-exclusionary, distribution of information to the public. These outlets include the Company’s website (progressive.com) and its investor relations website (investors.progressive.com). We encourage investors and others to review the information the Company makes public through these outlets, as such information distributed through these outlets may be considered to be material information.

Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Investors are cautioned that certain statements in this report not based upon historical fact are forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements often use words such as “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” “goal,” “target,” “anticipate,” “will,” “could,” “likely,” “may,” “should,” and other words and terms of similar meaning, or are tied to future periods, in connection with a discussion of future operating or financial performance. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, are based on current expectations and projections about future events, and are subject to certain risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed herein. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, uncertainties related to:

our ability to underwrite and price risks accurately and to charge adequate rates to policyholders;
our ability to establish accurate loss reserves;
the impact of severe weather, other catastrophe events, and climate change;
the effectiveness of our reinsurance programs and the continued availability of reinsurance and performance by reinsurers;
the secure and uninterrupted operation of the systems, facilities, and business functions and the operation of various third-party systems that are critical to our business;
the impacts of a security breach or other attack involving our technology systems or the systems of one or more of our vendors;
our ability to maintain a recognized and trusted brand and reputation;
whether we innovate effectively and respond to our competitors’ initiatives;
whether we effectively manage complexity as we develop and deliver products and customer experiences;
the highly competitive nature of property-casualty insurance markets;
whether we adjust claims accurately;
compliance with complex and changing laws and regulations;
the impact of misconduct or fraudulent acts by employees, agents, and third parties to our business and/or exposure to regulatory assessments;
our ability to attract, develop, and retain talent and maintain appropriate staffing levels;
litigation challenging our business practices, and those of our competitors and other companies;
the success of our business strategy and efforts to acquire or develop new products or enter into new areas of business and our ability to navigate the related risks;
how intellectual property rights affect our competitiveness and our business operations;
the success of our development and use of new technology and our ability to navigate the related risks;
the performance of our fixed-income and equity investment portfolios;
the impact on our investment returns and strategies from regulations and societal pressures relating to environmental, social, governance and other public policy matters;
our continued ability to access our cash accounts and/or convert investments into cash on favorable terms;
the impact if one or more parties with which we enter into significant contracts or transact business fail to perform;
legal restrictions on our insurance subsidiaries’ ability to pay dividends to The Progressive Corporation;
our ability to obtain capital when necessary to support our business, our financial condition, and potential growth;
evaluations and ratings by credit rating and other rating agencies;
the variable nature of our common share dividend policy;
whether our investments in certain tax-advantaged projects generate the anticipated returns;
the impact from not managing to short-term earnings expectations in light of our goal to maximize the long-term value of the enterprise;
the impacts of epidemics, pandemics, or other widespread health risks; and
other matters described from time to time in our releases and publications, and in our periodic reports and other documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, including, without limitation, the Risk Factors section of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ending December 31, 2024.

Any forward-looking statements are made only as of the date presented. Except as required by applicable law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or developments or otherwise.

In addition, investors should be aware that accounting principles generally accepted in the United States prescribe when a company may reserve for particular risks, including litigation exposures. Accordingly, results for a given reporting period could be significantly affected if and when we establish reserves for one or more contingencies. Also, our regular reserve reviews may result in adjustments of varying magnitude as additional information regarding claims activity becomes known. Reported results, therefore, may be volatile in certain accounting periods.

Contacts
The Progressive Corporation · 300 North Commons Blvd. · Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143 · http://www.progressive.com
Company Contact: Douglas S. Constantine · (440) 395-3707 · investor_relations@progressive.com