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Mosaic Co.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 24 February 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 21 new. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Full-year net income of $541 million: Full-year 2025 net income was $541 million, against $175 million in 2024. Diluted EPS was $1.70, against $0.55. Source
  • Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $505 million: Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $505 million, against $594 million a year earlier. Fourth-quarter diluted EPS was $(1.64), against $0.53. Source
  • Notable items drove the fourth-quarter loss: Pre-tax notable items were $422 million in the fourth quarter, including $110 million of Mosaic Fertilizantes goodwill and fixed asset impairments, partly offset by a $100 million gain on asset sales. Source
  • Phosphate fourth-quarter operating loss: The fourth-quarter phosphate operating loss was $98 million, against operating profit of $44 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $144 million against $341 million. Source
  • Fourth-quarter loss on goodwill impairment: The fourth-quarter Fertilizantes operating loss was $26 million, against $79 million a year earlier, mainly from a goodwill impairment. Adjusted EBITDA was $45 million against $82 million. Source
  • Operating cash flow fell to $825 million: Cash flow from operations was $825 million in 2025, against $1.3 billion in 2024. The fourth quarter was $(56) million. Source

“Mosaic made significant progress in 2025. We fortified our assets to ensure reliable production, delivered meaningful cost and efficiency progress and divested non-core assets,”

President and CEO Bruce Bodine

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Phosphate production SourceFull year 2026At or above 7 million tonnesNew
Potash production SourceFull year 2026Approximately 9 million tonnesNew
Potash sales volumes SourceFirst quarter 20262.0 to 2.2 million tonnesNew
Potash price (FOB mine) SourceFirst quarter 2026$255 to $275 per tonneNew
Phosphate sales volumes SourceFirst quarter 20261.7 to 1.9 million tonnesNew
DAP price (FOB plant) SourceFirst quarter 2026$640 to $670 per tonneNew
Mosaic Fertilizantes segment adjusted EBITDA SourceFirst quarter 2026Below $50 millionNew
Total capital expenditures SourceFull year 2026Approximately $1.5 billionNew
ARO and environmental reserve cash spend SourceFull year 2026Approximately $350 millionNew
Depreciation, depletion and amortization SourceFull year 2026$1.1 - 1.2 billionNew
Selling, general and administrative expense SourceFull year 2026$530 - $550 millionNew
Net interest expense SourceFull year 2026$200 - $220 millionNew
Adjusted effective tax rate SourceFull year 2026Low-to-mid 30's%New
Cash tax rate SourceFull year 2026Mid-to-high 20's%New
Ammonia production SourceFull year 2026Over 50% increase from 2025New
Mosaic Biosciences net sales SourceFull year 2026Approximately double 2025New
Value capture program SourceFull year 2026 versus 2025Additional $100 millionNew
Asset sales consideration SourceAssets sold, announced in 2025Approximately $230 million total, including approximately $170 million cash over time, and $60 million ARO reductionNew
Sulfur cost sensitivity SourceQuarterlyAbout $10 million EBITDA per $10 per tonne sulfur increaseNew
MOP price sensitivity SourceFull year 2026$65 million per $10/mt changeNew
DAP price sensitivity SourceFull year 2026$80 million per $10/mt changeNew

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: Full-year 2026 guidance was issued for phosphate and potash production and for capital, cost, tax and interest assumptions. The prior release gave guidance for 2025. Source
  • New: The Carlsbad potash mine was moved to asset held for sale. The prior release said the company continued to engage interested parties on strategic alternatives for it.
  • New: Mosaic temporarily curtailed SSP production at the Fospar JV and Araxa site, which together account for about 30 percent of its Brazil production. Source
  • Ended: The 2025 guidance ranges in the third-quarter release are not carried forward. This release reports full-year 2025 results instead. Source

Full-year and fourth-quarter results

  • Full-year net income of $541 million: Full-year 2025 net income was $541 million, against $175 million in 2024. Diluted EPS was $1.70, against $0.55. Source
  • Full-year adjusted EBITDA rose 10 percent: Full-year adjusted EBITDA rose 10 percent to $2.4 billion. The company cited higher potash prices and volumes and margin expansion in Mosaic Fertilizantes, partly offset by lower phosphate sales volumes. Source
  • Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $505 million: Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $505 million, against $594 million a year earlier. Fourth-quarter diluted EPS was $(1.64), against $0.53. Source

Notable items and tax

  • Notable items drove the fourth-quarter loss: Pre-tax notable items were $422 million in the fourth quarter, including $110 million of Mosaic Fertilizantes goodwill and fixed asset impairments, partly offset by a $100 million gain on asset sales. Source
  • Brazil deferred tax asset reserve: A $261 million after-tax reserve on deferred tax assets in Mosaic Fertilizantes reduced fourth-quarter earnings. The notable items table shows an EPS effect of $(0.82). Source
  • Notable items cut EPS by $1.86 in Q4: Notable items reduced diluted EPS by $1.86 in the fourth quarter and by $0.57 for full year 2025, taking adjusted diluted EPS to $0.22 and $2.27. Source
  • Full-year tax rates on notable items: The full-year effective tax rate was 52.7 percent. Excluding net unfavorable notable items, the adjusted effective tax rate was 30.8 percent. Source
  • Cash taxes paid in 2025: Cash taxes paid were $321 million for 2025. Source

“Deferred demand and higher raw material costs negatively impacted our year end results, but demand is expected to recover as we move toward the planting season.”

President and CEO Bruce Bodine

Potash segment results

  • Full-year potash EBITDA rose: Full-year potash adjusted EBITDA was $1.2 billion, against $944 million in 2024. Full-year operating earnings were $638 million, against $604 million. Source
  • Fourth-quarter potash operating earnings lower: Fourth-quarter potash operating earnings were $58 million, down from $123 million. Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA rose to $336 million from $212 million on higher prices. Source
  • MOP output highest since 2019: Potash production was 8.8 million tonnes in 2025, with MOP output at its highest level since 2019. Source
  • MOP prices and gross margin higher: MOP FOB mine price averaged $255 per tonne against $222, and gross margin per tonne was $97 against $74. Potash net sales were $2.7 billion against $2.4 billion. Source

Phosphate segment results

  • Phosphate fourth-quarter operating loss: The fourth-quarter phosphate operating loss was $98 million, against operating profit of $44 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $144 million against $341 million. Source
  • Full-year phosphate EBITDA lower: Full-year phosphate net sales were $4.6 billion. Operating earnings were $135 million against $225 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $917 million against $1.2 billion. Source
  • Affordability cut U.S. phosphate sales: Fourth-quarter sales volumes were lower, and the company ended the quarter with finished product inventories above prior periods. Source
  • Sulfur prices raised raw material costs: Sulfur costs in cost of goods sold averaged $306 per tonne in the fourth quarter. Benchmark prices rose above $500 late in the quarter, affecting the value of raw material inventory. Source

“Despite a slow fourth quarter, 2026 is poised to be more constructive, with momentum building as North America spring season approaches.”

Mosaic Co., press release

Mosaic Fertilizantes results

  • Full-year Fertilizantes EBITDA up 65%: Full-year net sales were $4.8 billion against $4.4 billion, operating earnings $277 million against $238 million, and adjusted EBITDA $567 million against $344 million. Source
  • Fourth-quarter loss on goodwill impairment: The fourth-quarter Fertilizantes operating loss was $26 million, against $79 million a year earlier, mainly from a goodwill impairment. Adjusted EBITDA was $45 million against $82 million. Source
  • Competition and credit reduced margins: Fourth-quarter volumes and distribution margin were hit by intensified competition and tightening credit. Gross margin per tonne fell to $10 from $46. Source
  • Brazil market share held steady: Mosaic said its Brazil fertilizer market share remained steady in 2025 despite the credit environment, and that it continued to prioritize sales to selected customers. Source
  • Lower-margin SSP mix and sulfur: Fourth-quarter results were affected by higher sulfur prices and by a shift toward lower-margin SSP products. Source

Costs, idle expenses and cash cost per tonne

  • SG&A rose to $534 million: SG&A expense was $534 million for 2025, against $497 million in 2024. Source
  • SG&A drivers in Biosciences and benefits: The increase came from higher Mosaic Biosciences selling expenses, higher employee benefit costs and non-cash amortization for the Global Digital Acceleration project, partly offset by productivity gains. Source
  • Phosphate cash cost per tonne rose: Phosphate cash cost of conversion was $125 per tonne in 2025, against $107, reflecting higher maintenance and repair costs and more downtime while asset reliability was improved. Source
  • Idle and turnaround work at Bartow, Faustina: Fourth-quarter idle and turnaround expenses covered planned work at the Bartow site and the Faustina ammonia plant. Source
  • MOP cash cost up on Colonsay volumes: MOP cash cost of production was $75 per tonne in 2025, against $71, mainly from a higher contribution of volumes produced at Colonsay. Source

Cash flow, capital and shareholder returns

  • Operating cash flow fell to $825 million: Cash flow from operations was $825 million in 2025, against $1.3 billion in 2024. The fourth quarter was $(56) million. Source
  • Inventory build absorbed working capital: The decline reflected higher working capital, including a $428 million rise in finished product inventories and $346 million tied to higher phosphate rock volumes and sulfur prices. Source
  • Free cash flow negative in 2025: Free cash flow was $(535) million for 2025, against $47 million in 2024. Source
  • Capital spending up on phosphate asset health: Capital expenditures were $1.36 billion in 2025, up from $1.25 billion, mainly for phosphate asset health and production reliability. Source
  • Dividends returned $280 million: The company paid a $0.22 per share dividend in the fourth quarter, returning $70 million. Dividends totaled $280 million in 2025. Source

Mosaic Biosciences

  • Biosciences launched five products: Mosaic Biosciences launched five new products in 2025, and net sales more than doubled to $68 million. New products are new brands or existing brands launched in new geographies. Source
  • Biosciences added to fourth-quarter EBITDA: The company said Mosaic Biosciences positively contributed to fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA. Source

Market conditions and demand

  • Chinese phosphate exports restricted: Chinese phosphate exports remain largely absent under extended restrictions expected through at least the first half. Mosaic is fielding demand inquiries from destinations historically served by Chinese suppliers. Source
  • Sulfur prices curtail phosphate output: The company said elevated sulfur prices contributed to phosphate production curtailments in China and Brazil, which may further tighten phosphate markets. Source
  • Potash markets described as balanced: Potash markets are balanced. China's early contract settlement is expected to bring greater price stability. Source
  • Record potash shipments possible in 2026: Potash prices have shifted higher. Current expectations suggest global shipments could reach record levels in 2026. Source
  • Brazil credit constraints persist: Credit constraints persist in Brazil. Expanding planted acreage and crop yields are expected to support fertilizer demand in 2026 as growers rebuild soil nutrients. Source
  • North American corn shift and aid payments: North America planting expectations point to a further shift toward corn acreage. Additional government support payments are expected to support demand for the spring application period. Source

Coming up, as management said on 24 February 2026

  • Sulfur cost impact reaches second quarter: The full impact of higher sulfur prices is expected in cost of goods sold in the second quarter of 2026. Source
  • Brazil SSP production plans under review: The company continues to assess its production plans as sulfur market conditions change. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Phosphate production volumes (2025) Source6.3 million tonnes
Potash production volumes (2025) Source8.8 million tonnes
Phosphate sales volumes (2025) Source5.9 million tonnes; Q4 1.3 million tonnes
Potash sales volumes (2025) Source9.0 million tonnes
Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volumes (2025) Source9.0 million tonnes

Risks management discussed

  • Operational: Potash volumes were reduced in the fourth quarter by the temporary idling of Esterhazy operations after a fatality in early December. Source
  • Financial: The inventory build accelerated in the fourth quarter, and operating cash flow for the quarter was negative. Source
  • Demand: U.S. phosphate demand was lower in the fourth quarter because of affordability challenges. Source
  • External: Management said a sharp rise in sulfur prices late in the quarter could materially affect 2026 production margins without mitigating actions. Source
  • Demand: First-quarter 2026 Brazil sales volumes are expected below prior year levels because of ongoing credit challenges and SSP curtailment. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Met: The company says it achieved the $150 million value capture target versus 2023, with about $100 million captured in Mosaic Fertilizantes. Source
  • Not stated: Management said the fourth-quarter cash cost of conversion was $112 per tonne, and expects it to continue to normalize in 2026. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.