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Mosaic Co.: Q3 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q3 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 4 November 2025: press release. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Adjusted EBITDA rose 80 percent: Adjusted EBITDA was $806 million, up 80% from the prior year quarter. Management attributed the increase mainly to Mosaic Fertilizantes, phosphate stripping margins and potash prices. Source
  • Notable items lifted net income: Notable items added $135 million pre-tax, mainly a $308 million unrealized gain on Ma'aden shares, partly offset by $173 million of losses. Source
  • Phosphate earnings recovered from loss: Phosphate operating earnings were $102 million, against a loss of $8 million in the prior quarter. Management said earlier Bartow and Riverview issues have been addressed. Source
  • Fertilizantes earnings more than doubled adjusted EBITDA: Operating earnings were $96 million, up from $56 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $241 million, up from $83 million, driven by higher prices. Source
  • Operating cash flow fell on working capital: Operating cash flow was $229 million, down from $313 million, mainly from higher working capital in shipments, Brazil inventory and phosphate rock stock. Source

“Mosaic generated strong earnings despite operational and market challenges in the third quarter”

President and CEO Bruce Bodine

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Phosphate production volumes Sourcefull year 20256.3 - 6.5 million tonnes
Potash production volumes Sourcefull year 20259.1 to 9.4 million tonnes
Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volumes Sourcefull year 20259.4 to 9.6 million tonnes
Total capital expenditures Sourcefull year 2025approximately $1.3 billion
Depreciation, depletion and amortization Sourcefull year 2025$1.1 to $1.2 billion
Selling, general and administrative expense Sourcefull year 2025$530 to $550 million
Net interest expense Sourcefull year 2025$180 to $200 million
Effective tax rate Sourcefull year 2025high 20's %
Cash tax rate Sourcefull year 2025low 20's %
Phosphate sales volumes Sourcefourth quarter 20251.7 to 1.9 million tonnes
DAP FOB plant price Sourcefourth quarter 2025$700 to $730 per tonne
Potash sales volumes Sourcefourth quarter 20252.3 to 2.6 million tonnes
MOP realized mine gate price Sourcefourth quarter 2025$270 to $280 per tonne
Mosaic Fertilizantes segment adjusted EBITDA Sourcefourth quarter 2025approximately $100 million
Distribution margin per tonne Sourcefourth quarter 2025below the normal annualized $30-$40 range
Mosaic Biosciences sales Sourcefull year 2025about $70 million
MOP price sensitivity on full-year adjusted EBITDA Sourcefull year, 2024 cost structure$10 per tonne price change = $58 million
DAP price sensitivity on full-year adjusted EBITDA Sourcefull year, 2024 cost structure$10 per tonne price change = $64 million

What changed from last quarter

  • New: Taquari potash mine sale completed in November for $27 million; expected to remove capital investment above $25 million and asset retirement obligations of $22 million. Source
  • New: Patos de Minas mine sale completed in October for $111 million, with $51 million collected at closing. Source
  • New: Taquari mine treated as an asset held for sale, producing a $75 million loss in the quarter. Source

Results and growth drivers

  • Adjusted EBITDA rose 80 percent: Adjusted EBITDA was $806 million, up 80% from the prior year quarter. Management attributed the increase mainly to Mosaic Fertilizantes, phosphate stripping margins and potash prices. Source
  • Net income and EPS reported: Net income was $411 million and diluted EPS was $1.29. Adjusted EPS was $1.04, with notable items adding $0.25 per share. Source
  • Notable items lifted net income: Notable items added $135 million pre-tax, mainly a $308 million unrealized gain on Ma'aden shares, partly offset by $173 million of losses. Source
  • SG&A fell from second quarter: SG&A was $126 million, down from $167 million in the second quarter. Source

Segments and regions

  • Phosphate earnings recovered from loss: Phosphate operating earnings were $102 million, against a loss of $8 million in the prior quarter. Management said earlier Bartow and Riverview issues have been addressed. Source
  • Fertilizantes earnings more than doubled adjusted EBITDA: Operating earnings were $96 million, up from $56 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $241 million, up from $83 million, driven by higher prices. Source

“In phosphates, our work to restore asset health has led to three consecutive months of higher production, and now we are focused on driving further improvements and sustainably higher operating rates.”

President and CEO Bruce Bodine

Products and customers

  • Biosciences sales more than doubled: Biosciences product sales more than doubled in the first nine months of 2025 versus the same period of 2024. Source
  • Credit-focused sales in Brazil: Management said Mosaic Fertilizantes is prioritizing sales to customers with strong credit profiles and applying prudent risk management. Source
  • Phosphate shipments lagged production: Phosphate sales trailed production because of shipment timing to customers, per management. Source

Costs, margins and pricing

  • Potash cash cost per tonne fell: MOP cash cost of production was $71 per tonne, down from $74 a year earlier, as production levels rose. Source
  • Phosphate conversion cost rose on asset health: Phosphate cash cost of conversion rose to $131 per tonne from $101 a year earlier, with July asset health costs included. Source
  • Potash idle costs fell: Potash idle and turnaround expenses fell to $16 million from $34 million in the second quarter. Source
  • Bad debt recovery in Brazil: Mosaic recovered $27 million of prior bad debt expense and recorded no material new bad debt in the quarter. Source

“Our business in Brazil continued to perform well while navigating the ongoing credit issues in Brazilian agriculture, and we delivered solid performance in our potash business”

President and CEO Bruce Bodine

Demand and market conditions

  • Potash demand may test record: Management said global potash demand has been steady and may test another record, supported by Chinese consumption. Source
  • Phosphate market expected to tighten: China's pulled-back phosphate export approvals are expected to tighten the phosphate market heading into 2026. Source
  • Brazilian customers still buying: Management said Brazilian customers are actively buying fertilizer for upcoming seasons. Source

Capital, cash and shareholder returns

  • Operating cash flow fell on working capital: Operating cash flow was $229 million, down from $313 million, mainly from higher working capital in shipments, Brazil inventory and phosphate rock stock. Source
  • Capital expenditures rose on phosphate: Capital expenditures were $364 million, up from $241 million, due to higher phosphate sustaining capex. Source
  • Free cash flow turned negative: Free cash flow was negative $135 million, against $72 million a year earlier, after operating cash flow and capital expenditures. Source
  • Dividend paid this quarter: The company paid a $0.22 per share dividend, equal to $70 million returned to shareholders. Source
  • Effective tax rate reported: Effective tax rate was 29.3% for the quarter; cash taxes paid were $89 million. Source

Strategy and investment

  • Carlsbad potash mine alternatives: Management said it continues engaging interested parties on strategic alternatives for the Carlsbad, New Mexico potash mine. Source
  • Biosciences launches year to date: Mosaic Biosciences launched four new products year to date. Source
  • Global market access as advantage: Management cited global market access as a strategic advantage for adapting to shifting market dynamics. Source

Coming up, as management said on 4 November 2025

  • Patos de Minas proceeds over four years: Remaining Patos de Minas sale proceeds are to be received over four years after closing. Source
  • Fourth-quarter operating cash flow improvement: Management expects operating cash flow to improve in the fourth quarter once working capital effects reverse. Source
  • Biosciences adds to fourth-quarter EBITDA: Mosaic Biosciences is expected to contribute positively to adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter. Source
  • Canpotex record shipments this year: Canpotex is expected to set a shipment record this year, given demand in its geographies. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Phosphate production volumes, third quarter Source1.7 million tonnes
Phosphate production, trailing three months to October Sourceapproximately 1.8 million tonnes
Phosphate sales volumes, third quarter Source1.6 million tonnes
Potash sales volumes, third quarter Source2.3 million tonnes
Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volumes, third quarter Source2.8 million tonnes

Risks management discussed

  • Demand: Management said North American demand could see modest deferral this fall because of crop prices and trade uncertainty. Source
  • Financial: Brazilian growers face lower commodity prices and tighter credit availability, which management cited as a continuing constraint. Source
  • Operational: The high-cost Colonsay potash mine continues to operate, which keeps some cost pressure in the potash segment. Source
  • External: Brazil conversion cost was affected by product mix, maintenance activities and a stronger Brazilian real. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Met: Phosphate idle and turnaround expenses fell as management had anticipated. Source
  • On track: Management said Biosciences remains on track to launch one more product in 2025. Source
  • Not stated: Management described potash production as trending toward a record level for 2025. Source
  • Not stated: Management expects phosphate production volumes to keep improving and to sustain higher operating rates. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.