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Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 5 February 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 4 new, 2 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Fourth quarter production rose 11%: Fourth quarter production averaged 103.8 Mboe/d, up from 93.1 Mboe/d a year earlier, which the company reported as a new quarterly record. Source
  • Net income and EPS declined: Net income was $71.4 million against $88.7 million, down 20%. Diluted EPS was $0.37 against $0.44, and adjusted EBITDAX was $215.7 million, down 9%. Source
  • First quarter 2026 production estimate: First quarter 2026 production is estimated at about 102 Mboe/d, including about 1.5 Mboe/d of downtime from a winter storm, which management says has been fully restored. Source
  • Oil and NGL prices fell, gas rose: Fourth quarter oil realized $57.54 per barrel against $69.01, and NGLs $17.63 per barrel against $21.27. Gas rose to $2.92 per Mcf from $1.85. Source
  • Operating margin fell to 30%: Operating income margin was $9.85 per boe, or 30%, in the quarter against $14.48, or 38%. The full-year margin was 33% against 39%. Source
  • 2026 capital guided at $440-480M: Total 2026 D&C capital is estimated at $440 to $480 million, comparable to 2025, and includes non-operated capital similar to 2025. Source
  • Returned 110% of Q4 free cash flow: Management reported returning 110% of quarterly free cash flow and 75% for the full year, through buybacks and dividends. Free cash flow was $74.7 million in Q4 and $426.6 million for 2025. Source

“Magnolia delivered another year of exceptional and consistent performance in 2025, marked by the steady execution of our capital-efficient business model and our high quality assets,”

Chairman, President, and CEO Chris Stavros

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
D&C capital Sourcefull year 2026$440 to $480 millionNew
Total production growth Sourcefull year 2026approximately 5 percentKept
D&C capital Sourcefirst quarter 2026approximately $125 millionNew
Total production Sourcefirst quarter 2026approximately 102 Mboe/dNew
Oil price differential Sourcenot statedapproximately a $3 per barrel discount to Magellan East HoustonKept
Fully diluted share count Sourcefirst quarter 2026approximately 187 million sharesNew

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: The 2026 capital guidance is now a dollar range of $440 to $480 million; the third quarter release gave 2026 spending within 55 percent of adjusted EBITDAX. Source
  • New guidance: First quarter 2026 D&C capital of about $125 million and first quarter production of about 102 Mboe/d were given for the first time. Source
  • New guidance: First quarter 2026 fully diluted share count of about 187 million shares was given. Source
  • Guidance kept: Full-year 2026 production growth of about 5 percent is in line with the mid-single digit growth given in the third quarter release. Source
  • Guidance kept: The oil price differential of about $3 per barrel below Magellan East Houston is the same as in the third quarter release. Source
  • New: The board raised the share repurchase authorization by 10 million shares, leaving 12.9 million Class A shares; the third quarter release showed 5.2 million remaining. Source
  • New: The quarterly Class A dividend rose 10 percent, from $0.15 to $0.165 per share, an annualized rate of $0.66. Source

Results and growth drivers

  • Fourth quarter production rose 11%: Fourth quarter production averaged 103.8 Mboe/d, up from 93.1 Mboe/d a year earlier, which the company reported as a new quarterly record. Source
  • Net income and EPS declined: Net income was $71.4 million against $88.7 million, down 20%. Diluted EPS was $0.37 against $0.44, and adjusted EBITDAX was $215.7 million, down 9%. Source
  • Full-year production rose 11%: Full year 2025 production averaged 99.8 Mboe/d, with production per share up 16%. Full-year diluted EPS was $1.73 against $1.94, and adjusted EBITDAX was $906.1 million, down 5%. Source
  • Operating cash flow lower year on year: Net cash from operations was $208.4 million in the quarter and $878.6 million for the year. Free cash flow was $74.7 million in the quarter and $426.6 million for the year. Source
  • First quarter 2026 production estimate: First quarter 2026 production is estimated at about 102 Mboe/d, including about 1.5 Mboe/d of downtime from a winter storm, which management says has been fully restored. Source

Operations and drilling activity

  • Giddings produced 79% of volumes: Giddings produced 83.6 Mboe/d in the fourth quarter, up 16%, and 79% of full-year 2025 company volumes. Oil output there rose 10%, with some growth from newly delineated areas. Source
  • Drilling and completion productivity improved: Drilling feet per day rose 8% and completed feet per day rose 6% in Giddings. Stronger well performance let several completions move into 2026, lowering 2025 capital. Source
  • Rig and crew count held for 2026: Magnolia plans two drilling rigs and one completion crew in 2026. Management says this program has been in place for five years and has driven production growth above 50 percent. Source

“Our consistent policy of low leverage and lack of commodity hedges is central to our strategy, providing us with downside protection while allowing for upside to product prices and the ability to generate value through commodity cycles.”

Chairman, President, and CEO Chris Stavros

Segments and regions

  • Multi-well pads dominate 2026 activity: About 75 to 80 percent of 2026 activity is multi-well development pads in Giddings, with the remainder in Karnes. Source
  • Giddings development on a 240,000-acre core: Giddings drilling uses multi-well pads throughout a core 240,000 net acre development area, which management says gives more consistent year-over-year results. Source
  • Appraisal spending in south Texas: A modest amount of capital continues to go to appraisal across the large south Texas acreage, particularly in Giddings, to further de-risk the acreage position. Source

Products, prices and reserves

  • Oil and NGL prices fell, gas rose: Fourth quarter oil realized $57.54 per barrel against $69.01, and NGLs $17.63 per barrel against $21.27. Gas rose to $2.92 per Mcf from $1.85. Source
  • Oil output reached quarterly high: Fourth quarter oil production was 40.7 Mbbls/d against 38.8 Mbbls/d a year earlier, and full-year oil production was 39.8 Mbbls/d, up about 4%. Source
  • Proved reserves rose 10%: Total proved reserves reached 210.2 MMboe, replacing 151% of 2025 production. Of these, 79% were proved developed, totaling 166.6 MMboe. Source
  • Organic F&D cost of $9.25 per boe: Organic proved developed F&D cost was $9.25 per boe for 2025, against a three-year average of $9.85, with a 137% organic reserve replacement ratio. Source

“As we enter 2026, Magnolia is well-positioned and consistently guided by the principles of our business model.”

Chairman, President, and CEO Chris Stavros

Costs, margins and pricing

  • Operating margin fell to 30%: Operating income margin was $9.85 per boe, or 30%, in the quarter against $14.48, or 38%. The full-year margin was 33% against 39%. Source
  • Lease operating cost per boe fell: Lease operating expense was $4.96 per boe in the quarter against $5.36, and $5.12 for the year against $5.51, as field and asset operating costs were lowered. Source
  • Gathering costs rose sharply: Gathering, transportation and processing cost $17.9 million in the quarter against $12.2 million, or $1.88 per boe against $1.42. The full-year cost was $67.1 million against $39.8 million. Source
  • G&A rose; stock compensation excluded: General and administrative expenses were $25.0 million in the quarter against $21.2 million. Non-cash stock-based compensation is excluded from the cash G&A cost per boe. Source

Capital, cash and returns

  • 2026 capital guided at $440-480M: Total 2026 D&C capital is estimated at $440 to $480 million, comparable to 2025, and includes non-operated capital similar to 2025. Source
  • D&C capital fell in quarter and year: Fourth quarter D&C capital was $116.5 million, down 11% from $131.6 million. Full-year capital was $460.7 million, down 3%, a 51% reinvestment rate of adjusted EBITDAX. Source
  • Returned 110% of Q4 free cash flow: Management reported returning 110% of quarterly free cash flow and 75% for the full year, through buybacks and dividends. Free cash flow was $74.7 million in Q4 and $426.6 million for 2025. Source
  • Repurchases of 8.9 million shares in 2025: Magnolia bought 2.4 million Class A shares in the fourth quarter for $53.4 million, about 1.3% of shares outstanding. For 2025 it repurchased 8.9 million shares, lowering diluted shares 4.4%. Source
  • Year-end cash and undrawn revolver: Cash ended 2025 at $266.8 million, up from $260.0 million, with an undrawn $450 million revolving credit facility. Dividends paid to Class A holders were $113.1 million in 2025. Source

Strategy and investment

  • Bolt-on acquisitions near existing areas: Magnolia completed several small bolt-on property acquisitions in 2025 totaling $66.6 million, near areas where it operates and understands the subsurface. Source
  • Low leverage and no hedges: Management says low leverage and no commodity hedges are central to its strategy, giving protection against lower prices while keeping exposure to higher prices. Source
  • Efficiency focus and per-well capital: Management says its primary goals are to be the most efficient operator of its best-in-class assets, earn the highest returns, and use the least capital for drilling and completing wells. Source

Management view and returns

  • Return on capital employed of 18%: Management stated 2025 return on capital employed was 18 percent, a non-GAAP measure; the reconciliation shows 18.5% for the year. Source

Coming up, as management said on 5 February 2026

  • Form 10-K filing expected February 12: Financial statements and footnotes will appear in the Form 10-K for 2025, which management expects to file with the SEC on February 12, 2026. Source
  • Dividend payment on March 2: The declared quarterly Class A dividend is payable March 2, 2026, to holders of record on February 10, 2026. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Production volumes Source103.8 Mboe/d Q4 2025; 99.8 Mboe/d FY 2025
Realized prices SourceQ4 $33.26/boe; FY $36.01/boe
Oil realization to WTI Source97% Q4 2025; 98% FY 2025
Proved reserves Source210.2 MMboe total; 166.6 MMboe proved developed (year-end 2025)
Capital expenditure (D&C) Source$116.5M Q4 2025; $460.7M FY 2025
Lease operating expense per boe Source$4.96 Q4 2025; $5.12 FY 2025
Shareholder returns (cash) SourceFY 2025: $205.5M buybacks; $113.1M dividends

Risks management discussed

  • Operational: Winter storm downtime is estimated at about 1.5 Mboe/d in the first quarter of 2026, which management says has been fully restored. Source
  • External: Management cites product price volatility as the condition its capital discipline and cost management are meant to handle. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Ahead: Fourth quarter production of 103.8 Mboe/d was described as exceeding the earlier guidance of about 101 Mboe/d. Source
  • Not stated: Management had reiterated 2025 production growth of about 10 percent; the fourth quarter release reports 11 percent for the full year.
  • Not stated: Management had expected 2025 lease operating expense to be at least 5 percent lower than 2024; the release reports a 7 percent decline to $5.12 per boe.
  • Ahead: Management said double-digit 2025 production growth was achieved with less capital than originally planned. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.