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Elevance Health, Inc.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 28 January 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 22 new. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Revenue rose 10 percent in quarter: Operating revenue was $49.3 billion in the fourth quarter, up 10 percent, driven by higher premium yields, acquisitions and Medicare Advantage growth, partly offset by Medicaid attrition. Source
  • Quarterly and annual EPS figures reported: Fourth quarter diluted EPS was $2.47 against $1.81, and adjusted diluted EPS was $3.33 against $3.23. Full year diluted EPS was $25.21 and adjusted diluted EPS $30.29, against $33.04. Source
  • Health Benefits swung to adjusted loss: Health Benefits reported an adjusted operating loss of $0.2 billion in the fourth quarter and an adjusted operating gain of $4.2 billion for the year. Both periods were affected mainly by higher medical cost trend. Source
  • Medical membership down 1 percent: Medical membership was about 45.2 million at December 31, 2025, down 0.5 million, driven by Medicaid attrition. Medicare Advantage membership rose 7.9 percent to 2.23 million. Source
  • Cost trend in ACA and Part D: The fourth quarter benefit expense ratio of 93.5 percent rose 110 basis points, reflecting higher medical cost trend in ACA health plans and Medicare Part D seasonality from Inflation Reduction Act changes. Source
  • 2026 EPS floors set: Full year 2026 GAAP diluted EPS is projected at at least $22.30 and adjusted diluted EPS at at least $25.50, against 2025 actuals of $25.21 and $30.29. Source
  • Revenue projected to decline: Total operating revenue is projected to decline low single digits in 2026, with premium revenue down mid single digits. Product revenue and service fees are projected to grow mid single digits. Source
  • 2027 earnings growth target reaffirmed: Management said it remains confident in returning to at least 12 percent adjusted EPS growth in 2027, and reaffirmed its long-term earnings algorithm. Source
  • Segment margin targets recalibrated: The company is recalibrating its segment margin targets while reaffirming its long-term earnings algorithm. Source

“Through pricing discipline and targeted investments, we are strengthening the earnings power of our diversified platform and remain confident in our ability to return to at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027.”

Gail K. Boudreaux, President and Chief Executive Officer

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Adjusted diluted EPS Sourcefull year 2026at least $25.50New
GAAP diluted EPS Sourcefull year 2026at least $22.30New
Benefit expense ratio Sourcefull year 202690.2% +/- 50 bpsNew
Adjusted operating expense ratio Sourcefull year 202610.6% +/- 50 bpsNew
Adjusted operating gain Sourcefull year 2026at least $6.8 billionNew
Net investment income Sourcefull year 2026$1,875 millionNew
Interest expense Sourcefull year 2026($1,530) millionNew
Amortization of intangible assets Sourcefull year 2026($440) millionNew
Adjusted effective tax rate Sourcefull year 202622.0% - 24.0%New
Diluted shares Sourcefull year 2026219-220 millionNew
Operating cash flow Sourcefull year 2026at least $5.5 billionNew
Health Benefits GAAP operating margin Sourcefull year 2026(50) - (25) bps vs 2025 of 2.5%New
CarelonRx GAAP operating margin Sourcefull year 2026(25) - 0 bps vs 2025 of 5.6%New
Carelon Services GAAP operating margin Sourcefull year 20260 - 25 bps vs 2025 of 3.4%New
Commercial fee-based year-end membership Sourceyear-end 202627,200 - 27,500 thousandNew
Commercial risk-based year-end membership Sourceyear-end 20264,150 - 4,250 thousandNew
Medicaid year-end membership Sourceyear-end 20267,650 - 7,850 thousandNew
Medicare Advantage year-end membership Sourceyear-end 20261,775 - 1,875 thousandNew
Medicare Supplement year-end membership Sourceyear-end 2026approximately 850 thousandNew
Federal Employee Program year-end membership Sourceyear-end 2026approximately 1,550 thousandNew
Risk-based year-end membership Sourceyear-end 202615,975 - 16,375 thousandNew
Total medical membership Sourceyear-end 202643,175 - 43,875 thousandNew

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: Full year 2026 guidance set for GAAP diluted EPS, adjusted diluted EPS and operating cash flow, with no 2026 figures in the prior release. Source
  • Guidance kept: Long-term earnings algorithm reaffirmed in the release headline. Source
  • New: Segment margin targets recalibrated, as stated in the release headline. Source
  • New: Quarterly dividend declared at $1.72 per share, up from $1.71 per share paid in the fourth quarter of 2025. Source

Fourth quarter and full year results

  • Revenue rose 10 percent in quarter: Operating revenue was $49.3 billion in the fourth quarter, up 10 percent, driven by higher premium yields, acquisitions and Medicare Advantage growth, partly offset by Medicaid attrition. Source
  • Quarterly and annual EPS figures reported: Fourth quarter diluted EPS was $2.47 against $1.81, and adjusted diluted EPS was $3.33 against $3.23. Full year diluted EPS was $25.21 and adjusted diluted EPS $30.29, against $33.04. Source
  • Full year adjusted operating gain declined: Adjusted operating gain was $7.5 billion for 2025 against $9.3 billion, and the adjusted operating margin was 3.8 percent against 5.3 percent. Source
  • Full year benefit expense ratio rose: The benefit expense ratio was 90.0 percent for the year, up 150 basis points, from elevated medical cost trend. The fourth quarter ratio was 93.5 percent, up 110 basis points. Source

Segment results

  • Health Benefits swung to adjusted loss: Health Benefits reported an adjusted operating loss of $0.2 billion in the fourth quarter and an adjusted operating gain of $4.2 billion for the year. Both periods were affected mainly by higher medical cost trend. Source
  • Carelon revenue rose 27 percent: Carelon revenue was $18.7 billion in the quarter, driven by CarelonRx product revenue, Carelon Services risk-based solutions and the CareBridge acquisition. Adjusted Carelon operating gain was $0.6 billion, approximately flat. Source
  • Carelon full year gain up 10 percent: Full year adjusted operating gain for Carelon was $3.4 billion, up $0.3 billion, driven by improved CarelonRx performance and growth in Carelon Services risk-based solutions. Source

“As we enter 2026, our focus is on advancing affordability and making healthcare easier to access and navigate for the members we serve.”

Gail K. Boudreaux, President and Chief Executive Officer

Membership and customer counts

  • Medical membership down 1 percent: Medical membership was about 45.2 million at December 31, 2025, down 0.5 million, driven by Medicaid attrition. Medicare Advantage membership rose 7.9 percent to 2.23 million. Source
  • Medicaid and FEP enrollment fell: Medicaid membership was 8.5 million, down 4.7 percent from 8.9 million a year earlier. Federal Employee Program membership fell 3.4 percent to 1.6 million. Source
  • Medicare revenue rose in quarter: Medicare operating revenue was $10.8 billion in the fourth quarter, up 18.9 percent, and $44.8 billion for the year, up 21.6 percent. Source
  • CarelonRx scripts rose 6.8 percent: CarelonRx quarterly adjusted scripts were 88.5 million, up 6.8 percent. Carelon Services consumers served fell 9.2 percent to 91.8 million. Source

Costs, medical trend and margins

  • Cost trend in ACA and Part D: The fourth quarter benefit expense ratio of 93.5 percent rose 110 basis points, reflecting higher medical cost trend in ACA health plans and Medicare Part D seasonality from Inflation Reduction Act changes. Source
  • Operating expense ratio rose in quarter: The operating expense ratio was 11.0 percent in the fourth quarter and 10.6 percent for the year. The adjusted ratios were 10.8 percent and 10.5 percent, with investment in workforce, Carelon and technology. Source
  • Claims payable days improved: Days in Claims Payable was 41.3 days at December 31, 2025, down 0.1 days from September 30 and down 1.9 days from a year earlier. Source
  • Prior-year reserve releases lower: Net incurred medical claims included prior years redundancies of $1,290 million in 2025, compared with $1,731 million in 2024. Source

Cash flow and capital returns

  • Operating cash flow was $4.3 billion: Operating cash flow was $4.3 billion in 2025, about 0.8 times GAAP net income, compared with $5.8 billion in 2024. Source
  • Fourth quarter buybacks and dividend: In the fourth quarter the company repurchased 1.4 million shares for $471 million, at a weighted average price of $335.64, and paid a $1.71 quarterly dividend totaling $377 million. Source
  • Capital returned $4.1 billion in 2025: Elevance returned $4.1 billion to shareholders in 2025. About $6.7 billion of Board-approved repurchase authorization remained at December 31, 2025. Source
  • Parent company cash balance: Cash and investments at the parent company totaled about $2.6 billion at December 31, 2025. Source
  • Property and equipment spending lower: Purchases of property and equipment were $1,116 million in 2025, against $1,256 million in 2024. Source

2026 guidance

  • 2026 EPS floors set: Full year 2026 GAAP diluted EPS is projected at at least $22.30 and adjusted diluted EPS at at least $25.50, against 2025 actuals of $25.21 and $30.29. Source
  • Revenue projected to decline: Total operating revenue is projected to decline low single digits in 2026, with premium revenue down mid single digits. Product revenue and service fees are projected to grow mid single digits. Source
  • Expense and benefit ratios projected flat-ish: The 2026 benefit expense ratio is projected at 90.2 percent and the adjusted operating expense ratio at 10.6 percent, each within plus or minus 50 basis points. Source
  • Operating cash flow expected at least $5.5 billion: Operating cash flow for 2026 is projected to be at least $5.5 billion, against $4.3 billion in 2025. Source
  • Adjusted operating gain floor set: Adjusted operating gain is projected at at least $6.8 billion for 2026, against $7.5 billion in 2025. Source

2026 segment and membership plan

  • Segment revenue growth projected: Health Benefits operating revenue is projected to decline low single digits, while CarelonRx and Carelon Services are projected to grow low single digits. Source
  • Segment margin changes projected: GAAP operating margin is projected to change by 50 to 25 basis points lower for Health Benefits, 25 basis points lower to flat for CarelonRx, and flat to 25 basis points higher for Carelon Services. Source
  • Year-end enrollment projected lower: Total year-end 2026 medical enrollment is projected at 43,175 to 43,875 thousand, from 45,232 thousand at December 31, 2025. Source
  • Medicare Advantage enrollment projected lower: Year-end 2026 Medicare Advantage enrollment is projected at 1,775 to 1,875 thousand, Medicare Supplement at about 850 thousand, and Federal Employee Program at about 1,550 thousand. Source

Strategy and long-term targets

  • Affordability focus for 2026: The CEO said the 2026 focus is advancing affordability and making healthcare easier to access and navigate, through pricing discipline and targeted investments. Source
  • 2027 earnings growth target reaffirmed: Management said it remains confident in returning to at least 12 percent adjusted EPS growth in 2027, and reaffirmed its long-term earnings algorithm. Source
  • Segment margin targets recalibrated: The company is recalibrating its segment margin targets while reaffirming its long-term earnings algorithm. Source
  • Investment in workforce and technology: Expense growth reflects investment to strengthen the workforce, scale Carelon's capabilities and accelerate technology adoption, while the company says it maintained expense discipline. Source

Coming up, as management said on 28 January 2026

  • First quarter 2026 dividend payment: Board declared a first quarter 2026 dividend of $1.72 per share, payable March 25, 2026 to holders of record on March 10, 2026. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Prior-year reserve development Source$1,290 million favorable (prior years redundancies) in 2025
Investment income Source$2,194 million net investment income in 2025

Risks management discussed

  • Operational: Management said adjusted operating results in both periods were mainly affected by higher medical cost trend. Source
  • Regulatory: Medicare Part D seasonality tied to Inflation Reduction Act changes raised the fourth quarter benefit expense ratio. Source
  • Demand: Medicaid membership attrition offset part of the revenue growth in the quarter and the year. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Not stated: The third quarter release reaffirmed these 2025 figures; the fourth quarter release reports full year actuals of 90.0 percent and $30.29.

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.