greeksoup/ stock research

Chord Energy Corp.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 25 February 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 16 new, 1 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Cash flow exceeded expectations in 4Q25: Operating cash flow and Adjusted FCF were above expectations, helped by oil volumes at the high end of guidance and capital below expectations. Source
  • Free cash flow gains from initiatives: Continuous improvement initiatives added about $160MM of incremental run-rate free cash flow in FY25. Source
  • Oil volumes at top of guidance: 4Q25 oil output was 153.0 MBopd, the high end of the guided range. Total output was 272.8 MBoepd, 56.1% of it oil. Source
  • Seven 4-mile wells turned in line: Seven 4-mile wells were turned in line in FY25, three of them after 3Q25. Production from the program is at or above expectations. Source
  • Breakeven lowered over 10%: Weighted average breakeven of inventory fell more than 10% year over year, improving inventory quality. Source
  • CapEx below guided low end: 4Q25 CapEx was $305.2MM, excluding $8.0MM of reimbursable non-op spend, below the low end of the guided range. Source
  • FY26 volume and capital plan held: Management said the FY26 volume and capital guidance is consistent with the November estimate of 157 - 161 MBopd and about $1.4B CapEx. Source

“We demonstrated consistent execution, both increasing volumes and lowering capital relative to original expectations.”

Danny Brown, Chord Energy’s President and Chief Executive Officer

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Oil volumes Source1Q26152.5 - 155.5 MBopd (154 MBopd at midpoint)New
Total volumes SourceFY26273.7 - 280.3 MBoepdNew
CapEx SourceFY26$1,350 - $1,450MM (about $1.4B at midpoint)Kept
CapEx Source1Q26$325 - $355MMNew
Adjusted EBITDA SourceFY26approximately $2.3BNew
Adjusted free cash flow SourceFY26approximately $700MMNew
Oil discount to WTI SourceFY26$(1.50) - $(2.50) per BblNew
NGL realization (% of WTI) SourceFY265% - 15%New
Natural gas realization (% of Henry Hub) SourceFY2635% - 45%New
LOE ($/Boe) SourceFY26$9.30 - $10.30/BoeNew
Cash GPT ($/Boe) SourceFY26$2.65 - $3.15/BoeNew
Cash G&A ($MM) SourceFY26$90 - $100MMNew
Production taxes (% of oil, NGL and gas sales) SourceFY267.7% - 8.1%New
Cash interest ($MM) SourceFY26$100 - $110MMNew
Cash tax (% of Adjusted EBITDA) SourceFY261% - 5%New
Midstream projects ($MM) SourceFY26approximately $30MM (included in $1.4B CapEx)New
Operated TILs (gross wells) SourceFY26135 - 165 gross operated wellsNew

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: FY26 and 1Q26 guidance ranges issued for volumes, realizations, costs, CapEx and cash taxes. Source
  • New: The first 4-mile development unit, the Toonie pad, began fracking and is due online in 1Q26. Source

Quarter and full-year results

  • Cash flow exceeded expectations in 4Q25: Operating cash flow and Adjusted FCF were above expectations, helped by oil volumes at the high end of guidance and capital below expectations. Source
  • Fourth-quarter net income and adjusted earnings: Net income was $84.4MM, with diluted EPS of $1.48. Adjusted Net Income was $72.7MM, or $1.28 per diluted share. Source
  • Full-year free cash flow and EBITDA: FY25 Adjusted FCF was $816.9MM and Adjusted EBITDA was $2,327.0MM. FY25 diluted EPS was $0.74. Source
  • Free cash flow gains from initiatives: Continuous improvement initiatives added about $160MM of incremental run-rate free cash flow in FY25. Source
  • FY25 capital down, volumes up: FY25 CapEx was more than $100MM below pro forma FY24, while pro forma oil volumes rose 1% year over year. Source

Production volumes and mix

  • Oil volumes at top of guidance: 4Q25 oil output was 153.0 MBopd, the high end of the guided range. Total output was 272.8 MBoepd, 56.1% of it oil. Source
  • Total output below third quarter: Total production was 272.8 MBoepd, down from 280.9 in 3Q25, with NGL and natural gas volumes both lower on the quarter. Source
  • Marcellus gas volumes edged up: Marcellus gas averaged 119.0 MMcfpd in 4Q25, up from 117.5 in 3Q25, and 123.7 MMcfpd for FY25. Source

“The company made significant progress derisking its extended lateral program and is hitting the ground running in 2026.”

Danny Brown, Chord Energy’s President and Chief Executive Officer

Segments and regions

  • Williston Basin is the core position: Chord describes itself as an independent E&P company with long-lived assets primarily in the Williston Basin. Source
  • XTO purchase added reserves in place: The XTO Williston Basin acquisition, completed in 4Q25, added 38.0 MMBoe of reserves in place. Source

Products and realized prices

  • Crude realized below WTI before derivatives: Crude sold at $56.90/Bbl before derivatives, $2.24 under NYMEX WTI. Realized derivatives lifted it to $58.62/Bbl. Source
  • Crude revenue below third quarter: Crude oil revenues were $801.0MM in 4Q25, against $910.8MM in 3Q25, and $3,546.9MM for FY25. Source
  • NGL and gas realized within guided ranges: NGLs realized 8% of WTI and natural gas 39% of Henry Hub in 4Q25, both inside the guided ranges. Source

“We look forward to continuing to execute and deliver value for our shareholders.”

Danny Brown, Chord Energy’s President and Chief Executive Officer

Costs and expenses

  • Production taxes below guided range: Production taxes were 7.8% of sales against the 8.3% to 8.8% guided. Cash G&A was $26.8MM, above the $20.0 - $25.0MM range. Source
  • Impairment tied to market value drop: FY25 carried a non-cash goodwill impairment of $539.3MM, recorded after the company's market capitalization fell in 2Q25. Source
  • Cash interest higher year over year: Cash interest was $26.3MM in 4Q25 and $79.0MM for FY25, against $56.9MM in FY24. Source

Well program and activity

  • Seven 4-mile wells turned in line: Seven 4-mile wells were turned in line in FY25, three of them after 3Q25. Production from the program is at or above expectations. Source
  • Operated TILs by period: Chord had 30 gross (27 net) operated TILs in 4Q25 and 122 gross (99 net) operated TILs in FY25. Source
  • Steel cost increase offset by execution: The drilling team led the Williston Basin in lateral footage drilled in 2025 and offset higher steel prices through execution. Source

Base production and artificial lift

  • Fewer workover rig days: Failure reductions cut workover rig days by about 1,200 in 2025, and management cited improved safety performance. Source
  • Machine learning on rod lift wells: Machine learning now runs on about 99% of rod-lift wells, with about 25% gains in rod pump run times. Source
  • Completions team lowering cleanout times: The completions team was a basin leader in 4-mile cleanout times and is lowering costs through simulfrac and dual fuel use. Source

Reserves and inventory quality

  • Year-end proved reserves: Estimated net proved reserves were 917.5 MMBoe at December 31, 2025, of which 629.5 MMBoe were developed. Source
  • 2025 reserve additions: Drilling added 103.8 MMBoe of proved reserves in 2025, and the XTO purchase added 38.0 MMBoe. Source
  • Breakeven lowered over 10%: Weighted average breakeven of inventory fell more than 10% year over year, improving inventory quality. Source

Capital, cash and shareholder returns

  • CapEx below guided low end: 4Q25 CapEx was $305.2MM, excluding $8.0MM of reimbursable non-op spend, below the low end of the guided range. Source
  • Half of Adjusted FCF returned: About 50% of 4Q25 Adjusted FCF went to shareholders through the base dividend and $10.0MM of buybacks. Source
  • Fully diluted share count reduced: The fully diluted share count was 57.2MM at year end, down more than 5% year over year. Source
  • Year-end liquidity and debt: Year-end liquidity was $2,156.7MM, with $1,500.0MM of senior notes outstanding and no revolver borrowings. Source

FY26 plan and capital timing

  • FY26 volume and capital plan held: Management said the FY26 volume and capital guidance is consistent with the November estimate of 157 - 161 MBopd and about $1.4B CapEx. Source
  • Midstream spend rising to $30MM: Small water disposal projects total about $30MM, up from $18MM in FY25, and sit within the $1.4B CapEx midpoint. Source
  • Most CapEx spent by third quarter: About 80% of FY26 CapEx is expected to be incurred between 1Q26 and 3Q26. Source

Coming up, as management said on 25 February 2026

  • Toonie pad online in 1Q26: The first 4-mile development unit has started fracking and is due to come online in 1Q26. Source
  • Oil volumes to rise through 2026: Management expects 2Q26 oil volumes to increase sequentially, with further growth into 3Q26. Source
  • Dividend payable March 27: The $1.30 base dividend is payable March 27, 2026 to shareholders of record as of March 12, 2026. Source
  • Operated activity tied to non-op pace: Management will watch non-operated activity and may raise operated activity if non-op activity falls. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Crude oil production Source153.0 MBopd (4Q25); 154.8 MBopd (FY25)
Total production Source272.8 MBoepd (4Q25); 276.6 MBoepd (FY25)
Crude realized price, before derivatives Source$56.90/Bbl (4Q25); $62.78/Bbl (FY25)
Oil differential to WTI Source$(2.24)/Bbl (4Q25)
Marcellus gas realized price Source$3.19/Mcf (4Q25)
Net proved reserves Source917.5 MMBoe at December 31, 2025
PV-10 of proved reserves Source$9,072.4MM
Total CapEx Source$313.2MM (4Q25); $1,357.8MM (FY25)
LOE per Boe Source$9.72/Boe (4Q25); $9.73/Boe (FY25)
Base dividends declared per share Source$5.20/share (FY25); $1.30/share (4Q25)
Share repurchases Source$10.0MM; 103,057 shares (4Q25)

Risks management discussed

  • Operational: First-quarter 2026 volumes carry about 1 MBopd of weather-related impact. Source
  • External: Management cited ongoing commodity price volatility as a matter it expects to handle. Source
  • External: Gas and NGL realizations are expected to vary by quarter, reflecting seasonal pricing. Source
  • Operational: Higher steel prices raised well costs, which management said were offset in 2025 through improved execution. Source
  • Financial: Cash tax exposure depends on WTI between $55 and $70 per Bbl, with first-half 2026 lower than second-half. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Ahead: Average 4-mile well costs have been below budget, and costs were reduced by more than 10% versus 2025 initial designs. Source
  • Met: 4Q25 lease operating expense of $9.72/Boe was in line with the midpoint of guidance. Source
  • Ahead: FY25 LOE of $9.73/Boe was below initial expectations despite lower FY25 gas volumes. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.