greeksoup/ stock research

agilon health, Inc.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 25 February 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 21 new. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Net loss and gross loss increased: Fourth-quarter net loss was $189 million versus $106 million, and gross loss was $91 million versus $38 million. Full-year net loss was $391 million versus $260 million. Source
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss increased: Adjusted EBITDA loss was $142 million for the quarter versus $84 million a year earlier, and $296 million for the year versus $154 million. Source
  • Membership fell to 625,000: Members live on the platform were 625,000 at December 31, 2025, down 5% from 659,000 a year earlier. Membership figures are end-of-period results. Source
  • Medical margin turned negative: Medical margin was negative $74 million in the fourth quarter, against $1 million of earnings a year earlier. Full-year medical margin was negative $57 million versus $205 million. Source
  • Medicare Advantage cost trend reserved: Cost trend for Medicare Advantage members was reserved at about 7.4% for the quarter, in line with 7.2% in the third quarter. The full-year reserve was about 6.5%. Source
  • Liquidity of $285 million at year end: Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities totaled $285 million at December 31, 2025, against total debt of $35 million. Source

“2025 was a pivotal year for agilon. We confronted challenges head-on and focused our actions to accelerate meaningful transformation across the company - enhancing execution, improving operating discipline, and fundamentally strengthening the economics of our model,”

Ronald A. Williams, Executive Chair

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Total revenues SourceQuarter ended March 31, 2026$1,350 to $1,390 millionNew
Medical margin SourceQuarter ended March 31, 2026$115 to $130 millionNew
Adjusted EBITDA SourceQuarter ended March 31, 2026$35 to $45 millionNew
Total members live on platform SourceQuarter ended March 31, 2026 (end of period)536,000 to 551,000New
Medicare Advantage members SourceQuarter ended March 31, 2026 (end of period)431,000 to 441,000New
ACO model members SourceQuarter ended March 31, 2026 (end of period)105,000 to 110,000New
Average Medicare Advantage members SourceQuarter ended March 31, 2026430,000 to 440,000New
Total revenues SourceYear ending December 31, 2026$5,410 to $5,580 millionNew
Medical margin SourceYear ending December 31, 2026$300 to $350 millionNew
Adjusted EBITDA SourceYear ending December 31, 2026($15) to $15 millionNew
Geography entry costs SourceYear ending December 31, 2026$15 millionNew
Total members live on platform SourceYear ending December 31, 2026 (end of period)525,000 to 540,000New
Medicare Advantage members SourceYear ending December 31, 2026 (end of period)425,000 to 435,000New
ACO model members SourceYear ending December 31, 2026 (end of period)100,000 to 105,000New
Average Medicare Advantage members SourceYear ending December 31, 2026427,000 to 437,000New
ACO model Adjusted EBITDA contribution SourceFiscal year 2026$20-$25 millionNew
Selling, general and administrative expenses SourceFiscal year 2026approximately $234 millionNew
Medical cost trend SourceFiscal year 20267.5% gross, 7.0% netNew
Payor contract exits Source2026 membershipapproximately 50,000 membersNew
Part D exposure Source2026less than 15% of membershipNew
Payor bids effect on cost trend SourceFiscal year 202650 bpsNew

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: Management issued first-quarter 2026 and full-year 2026 guidance. The November release had given only full-year 2025 guidance, including revenue of $5,810 million to $5,830 million. Source
  • New: Management described a measured growth strategy to align growth with current rate and elevated cost conditions, with geography entry costs set accordingly. Source
  • New: Management listed payor contract exits among 2026 membership assumptions. The November release did not describe payor contract exits. Source
  • New: Management said it reduced Part D exposure in its 2026 membership base. Source

Fourth-quarter and full-year results

  • Revenue rose in quarter, fell for year: Fourth-quarter total revenue was $1.57 billion, up 3% from $1.52 billion. Full-year revenue was $5.93 billion, down 2% from $6.06 billion. Source
  • Net loss and gross loss increased: Fourth-quarter net loss was $189 million versus $106 million, and gross loss was $91 million versus $38 million. Full-year net loss was $391 million versus $260 million. Source
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss increased: Adjusted EBITDA loss was $142 million for the quarter versus $84 million a year earlier, and $296 million for the year versus $154 million. Source
  • Loss per share from operations: Net loss per share from continuing operations, basic and diluted, was $0.46 for the quarter and $0.98 for the year, against $0.26 and $0.61 a year earlier. Source
  • Guidance basis excludes GAAP reconciliation: Management said guidance for medical margin and Adjusted EBITDA is not reconciled to gross profit or net income, because items such as non-cash stock-based compensation cannot be predicted without unreasonable effort. Source

Membership and market exits

  • Membership fell to 625,000: Members live on the platform were 625,000 at December 31, 2025, down 5% from 659,000 a year earlier. Membership figures are end-of-period results. Source
  • Medicare Advantage and ACO members both fell: Medicare Advantage members were 511,000, down 3%, and ACO model members were 114,000, down 14%. ACO model entities are not included in consolidated results. Source
  • Market exits offset growth: Management said revenue reflects membership growth in new markets and same-geography growth, more than offset by market exits. Membership changes reflect previously disclosed market exits. Source
  • Average Medicare Advantage membership rose: Average Medicare Advantage members were 540,000 in the fourth quarter, up 2% from 527,000. For the full year the average was 510,000, down 2% from 522,000. Source

“While we were not satisfied by our 2025 financial performance, the transformation initiatives are delivering tangible benefits which support our expectation for material improvement in 2026.”

Ronald A. Williams, Executive Chair

Medical margin and cost trend

  • Medical margin turned negative: Medical margin was negative $74 million in the fourth quarter, against $1 million of earnings a year earlier. Full-year medical margin was negative $57 million versus $205 million. Source
  • Medicare Advantage cost trend reserved: Cost trend for Medicare Advantage members was reserved at about 7.4% for the quarter, in line with 7.2% in the third quarter. The full-year reserve was about 6.5%. Source
  • New members dilute margin per member: Management said Medical Margin per member per month can vary as new members join. It said Medical Margin in absolute dollars is expected to increase as the platform matures. Source

Operating costs and impairments

  • General and administrative expense fell for year: Full-year general and administrative expense was $238.5 million versus $268.9 million, and platform support costs were $160.0 million versus $169.4 million. Fourth-quarter G&A was $60.1 million. Source
  • Other medical expenses declined: Other medical expenses, covering physician surplus-sharing and care management, were $18.8 million in the fourth quarter versus $42.1 million, and $114.7 million for the year versus $213.2 million. Source
  • Impairments of $36 million recorded: Impairments were $36.1 million in the fourth quarter and for the full year, against $3.6 million a year earlier. Source
  • Goodwill balance is nil: Goodwill was nil at December 31, 2025, against $24.1 million at December 31, 2024. Source

ACO model and physician network

  • ACO entities added $41 million: ACO model entities, which are not consolidated, contributed $41 million to full-year Adjusted EBITDA versus $33 million. In the fourth quarter they contributed a $6 million loss. Source
  • Unconsolidated ACO cash declined: Cash associated with unconsolidated ACO model entities was $91 million at year end, against $172 million at September 30, 2025. Source
  • Network of about 2,200 physicians: The company describes a peer network of about 2,200 primary care physicians, and says it is the trusted partner in approximately 30 communities. Source

Balance sheet and cash flow

  • Liquidity of $285 million at year end: Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities totaled $285 million at December 31, 2025, against total debt of $35 million. Source
  • Operating cash outflow increased: Net cash used in operating activities was $106 million for the year, against $58 million in 2024. Purchases of property and equipment were $13 million and of intangible assets $30 million. Source
  • Receivables fell by $345 million: Receivables, net were $674 million at year end, against $1.02 billion a year earlier. The cash flow statement shows a $345 million inflow from receivables. Source
  • Equity fell to $127 million: Total stockholders’ equity was $126.7 million at December 31, 2025, against $471.0 million a year earlier. The accumulated deficit reached $1.98 billion. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Total members live on platform Source625,000 at December 31, 2025 (down 5%)
Medicare Advantage members Source511,000 at December 31, 2025 (down 3%)
ACO model members Source114,000 at December 31, 2025 (down 14%)
Average Medicare Advantage members, fourth quarter Source540,000 (up 2%)
Medical cost trend reserved, fourth quarter Sourceapproximately 7.4%
Medical cost trend reserved, full year Sourceapproximately 6.5%

Risks management discussed

  • Demand: Management listed payor contract exits and previously announced market exits as reducing the membership base in 2026. Source
  • Operational: Management expects elevated medical cost trend in 2026, slightly above 2025, with gross and net trend estimates set out in guidance. Source
  • External: Management said the difference between gross and net cost trend reflects the estimated effect of payor bids. Source
  • Operational: Medical margin depends on reserved cost trend for Medicare Advantage members, which management reserved at approximately 7.4% for the quarter. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Not stated: The 2026 release says about $35 million of operating expense reduction was executed in 2025, versus the $30 million the November release expected for 2026. Source
  • Not stated: Management said transformation initiatives, which it reported progress on in November, are delivering tangible benefits. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.