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Philip Morris International Inc.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 6 February 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 15 new, 1 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Full-year EPS and growth: Full-year reported diluted EPS was $7.26, against $4.52 in 2024; adjusted diluted EPS was $7.54, up 14.8% (14.2% on a currency-neutral basis). Source
  • Fourth-quarter growth slowed: Fourth-quarter adjusted operating income rose 5.8% reported and 4.5% organically, against 11.8% reported growth for the full year. Source
  • Segments reset to three: From January 1, 2026, the four geographic segments are replaced by International Smoke-Free, International Combustibles and U.S. segments, reported from Q1 2026. Source
  • Americas profit fell in fourth quarter: Fourth-quarter Americas adjusted operating income fell 43.4% organically; management said U.S. nicotine pouch gross margins remained above international SFP margins. Source
  • Smoke-free share of revenue: Smoke-free business was 41.5% of full-year net revenues and nearly 43% of gross profit, up 2.8 and 3.2 points against 2024. Source
  • Heat-not-burn growth accelerated in fourth quarter: HTU adjusted in-market sales growth was 12% in the fourth quarter and an estimated 10.5% for the full year, broadly in line with shipment growth. Source
  • Combustibles revenue rose on pricing: Full-year combustibles net revenue grew 2.5% (1.8% organically), driven by pricing and partly offset by geographic mix. Source

“We achieved another remarkable year of results in 2025, with a fifth consecutive year of volume growth, net revenues surpassing $40 billion, including close to $17 billion from our smoke-free business, and very good operating margin expansion,”

Jacek Olczak, Group CEO PMI

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Reported diluted EPS Source2026 full year$7.87 - $8.02New
Adjusted diluted EPS Source2026 full year$8.38 - $8.53New
Adjusted diluted EPS excluding currency Source2026 full year$8.11 - $8.26New
Net revenue growth, organic Source2026 full year5% to 7%New
Operating income growth, organic Source2026 full year7% to 9%New
Cigarette shipment volume Source2026 full yeardecline of around 3%New
International industry volume Source2026 full year, excluding China and the U.S.decline of around 2%New
Amortization of acquired intangibles Source2026 full year$0.51 per shareNew
Effective tax rate Source2026 full year, excluding discrete tax eventsaround 21.5%New
Operating cash flow Source2026 full yeararound $13.5 billionNew
Capital expenditures Source2026 full year$1.4 to $1.6 billionNew
Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio Sourceend of 2026close to 2.0xKept
Adjusted diluted EPS Sourcefirst quarter of 2026$1.80 to $1.85New
Net revenue growth, organic (CAGR target) Source2026 to 20286% to 8%New
Operating income growth, organic (CAGR target) Source2026 to 20288% to 10%New
Adjusted diluted EPS growth excluding currency (CAGR target) Source2026 to 20289% to 11%New

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: Full-year 2026 forecast issued for reported and adjusted diluted EPS; the prior release gave forecasts for 2025 only. Source
  • New guidance: Compound annual growth targets issued for 2026 to 2028 for net revenues, operating income and adjusted diluted EPS. Source
  • Guidance kept: Net debt to adjusted EBITDA target stated as close to 2.0x by end-2026, against around 2x in the prior release. Source
  • New: Three new reportable segments replace the four geographic segments: International Smoke-Free, International Combustibles and U.S. Source
  • Ended: The four geographic segments used in prior reporting are replaced effective January 1, 2026. Source
  • New: Organizational model changed to two business units, International and U.S., effective January 1, 2026; the prior release described this as a plan. Source

Full-year and fourth-quarter results

  • Full-year EPS and growth: Full-year reported diluted EPS was $7.26, against $4.52 in 2024; adjusted diluted EPS was $7.54, up 14.8% (14.2% on a currency-neutral basis). Source
  • Operating income rose 11.1%: Full-year operating income was $14.9 billion, up 11.1% reported and 10.6% organically; full-year net revenues were $40.6 billion, up 7.3% reported. Source
  • Fourth-quarter growth slowed: Fourth-quarter adjusted operating income rose 5.8% reported and 4.5% organically, against 11.8% reported growth for the full year. Source
  • Phasing held back fourth quarter: Management said fourth-quarter net revenue growth was below the full-year rate, due to shipment and phasing factors the company had outlined earlier. Source

Segments and regional results

  • Segments reset to three: From January 1, 2026, the four geographic segments are replaced by International Smoke-Free, International Combustibles and U.S. segments, reported from Q1 2026. Source
  • Europe operating income up 8.5%: Full-year Europe adjusted operating income rose 8.5% organically, reflecting price and volume/mix, partly offset by higher marketing, administration and research costs. Source
  • Americas profit fell in fourth quarter: Fourth-quarter Americas adjusted operating income fell 43.4% organically; management said U.S. nicotine pouch gross margins remained above international SFP margins. Source
  • East Asia profit slipped slightly: East Asia, Australia and PMI Global Travel Retail adjusted operating income fell 0.5% organically in the fourth quarter, as lower cigarette volume was partly offset by lower costs. Source
  • SSEA, CIS and MEA profit up 25.3%: SSEA, CIS and MEA fourth-quarter adjusted operating income rose 25.3% organically, mainly on higher combustible tobacco pricing. Source

“With excellent results in 2024 and 2025, we have delivered our three-year CAGR targets on operating income and EPS in just two years.”

Jacek Olczak, Group CEO PMI

Smoke-free products

  • Smoke-free share of revenue: Smoke-free business was 41.5% of full-year net revenues and nearly 43% of gross profit, up 2.8 and 3.2 points against 2024. Source
  • Heat-not-burn growth accelerated in fourth quarter: HTU adjusted in-market sales growth was 12% in the fourth quarter and an estimated 10.5% for the full year, broadly in line with shipment growth. Source
  • ZYN fourth-quarter shipments grew: ZYN fourth-quarter shipments reached 196 million cans, up over 19%; offtake rose 23% per Nielsen. ZYN is now available in 55 markets. Source
  • Oral SFP growth led by pouches: Oral SFP shipments rose 18.5% in pouch equivalents for the full year; nicotine pouches grew nearly 37% in the U.S. and over 35% internationally. Source
  • VEEV e-vapor volumes more than doubled: VEEV shipment volumes more than doubled for the full year, notably in Europe and Indonesia; VEEV is available in 47 markets. Source

Combustibles, margins and costs

  • Combustibles revenue rose on pricing: Full-year combustibles net revenue grew 2.5% (1.8% organically), driven by pricing and partly offset by geographic mix. Source
  • Marlboro record fourth-quarter share: Fourth-quarter combustibles net revenue rose 3.2% (0.3% organically); Marlboro reached a record 11.0% category share. Source
  • Cigarette category share slipped slightly: Overall cigarette category share was slightly lower for the full year, mainly due to Turkey. Source
  • Full-year adjusted margin up 1.6 points: Full-year adjusted operating income margin was 40.4%, up 1.6 points; fourth-quarter margin was 35.9%, down 0.4 points. Source
  • Americas full-year profit down 1.4%: Americas full-year adjusted operating income fell 1.4% organically, as higher marketing, administration and research and manufacturing costs more than offset the revenue factors. Source
  • SSEA costs included tobacco leaf: SSEA full-year adjusted operating income rose 18.6% organically, with higher marketing costs and tobacco leaf manufacturing costs partly offsetting gains. Source

“This again demonstrates our ability to create sustainable value for our shareholders as we renew our growth targets for 2026-2028.”

Jacek Olczak, Group CEO PMI

Industry volumes and demand

  • Q4 shipments flat, cigarettes down: Fourth-quarter PMI shipment volume was flat, with SFP up 8.5% offsetting a 2.2% cigarette decline, mainly in Europe, East Asia and travel retail. Source
  • Industry volume broadly stable: Industry volume excluding China and the U.S. was broadly stable for the full year, with cigarettes down 1.1% and HTUs up 10.2%. Source
  • Europe industry fell 3.6% in Q4: Europe fourth-quarter cigarette and HTU industry volume fell 3.6% to 126.4 billion units; cigarettes down 5.0%, HTUs still growing. Source
  • Japan HTU adjusted IMS growth: Japan PMI HTU adjusted IMS grew an estimated 7.0% for the full year and 5.8% in the fourth quarter. Source
  • Growth outside Europe and Japan: Adjusted IMS grew in the fourth quarter outside Europe and Japan, with offtake share gains in key cities such as Mexico City and Jakarta. Source

Capital, cash and shareholder returns

  • Dividend held at $1.47 quarterly: The company declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.47 per share, an annualized $5.88 per share. Source
  • Adjusting items added $0.28 per share: Full-year adjusting items added $0.28 per share to reported diluted EPS, led by amortization of intangibles. Source
  • Currency added $0.04 to EPS: Full-year currency contributed $0.04 to adjusted diluted EPS; excluding currency, adjusted diluted EPS was $7.50. Source
  • Germany footprint restructuring charge: Pre-tax restructuring charges were recorded for manufacturing footprint optimization in Germany, shown as an adjusting item. Source

Strategy, targets and organization

  • Over $16 billion invested since 2008: The company reports investing over $16 billion in smoke-free products since 2008, with the goal of completely ending cigarette sales. Source
  • FDA authorizations for smoke-free products: The FDA authorized General snus, ZYN nicotine pouches and versions of IQOS devices and consumables, the first-ever authorizations in their categories. Source
  • Two business units replace regions: Business units International and U.S. take effect January 1, 2026, under the leadership of Jacek Olczak, Group CEO. Source
  • Wellness expansion is long-term ambition: The company describes a long-term ambition to expand into wellness areas, drawing on its life sciences expertise. Source

Coming up, as management said on 6 February 2026

  • Historical segment data to follow: Select historical financial information for 2023 to 2025 on the new segments is planned before the end of the first quarter. Source
  • Q1 2026 reporting on new segments: Reporting from the first quarter of 2026 will reflect the new segment structure. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Total PMI shipment volume Source786.5 billion units
Smoke-free shipment volume Source179.1 billion units
Heat-not-burn (HTU) shipment volume Source155.1 billion units
ZYN shipment volume Source794 million cans
Oral SFP shipment volume Source1,240.0 million cans
Heat-not-burn volume share Sourceapproximately 76%
Smoke-free product markets Source106 markets
Estimated adult consumers of smoke-free products Sourceover 43 million

Risks management discussed

  • Demand: Management cited weaker industry volume in India and Mexico and an ongoing recovery in Turkey as factors in its 2026 volume assumptions. Source
  • Demand: Europe industry volume fell sharply in Poland, Ukraine and France in the fourth quarter, partly offset by gains in Bulgaria, Germany and Serbia. Source
  • Financial: Americas net revenue fell on an unfavorable U.S. price comparison with low ZYN promotional activity in the prior year. Source
  • Operational: Higher marketing, administration and research costs, including U.S. capability investments, weighed on Americas profit. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • On track: Management said the company is on track to deliver at or above the top end of its 2024 to 2026 compound annual growth ranges. Source
  • Met: Management said the three-year compound annual growth targets on operating income and EPS were delivered in two years. Source
  • On track: Management said the company is on track to outperform its 2024 to 2026 growth algorithm. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.