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Packaging Corp. of America: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 28 January 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 2 new. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Q4 EPS excluding special items declined: Fourth quarter EPS excluding special items was $2.32, against $2.47 a year earlier; reported diluted EPS was $1.13, after $1.19 of special items. Source
  • Full-year EPS excluding special items rose: Full-year EPS excluding special items was $9.84, against $9.04 in 2024; reported diluted EPS was $8.58, against $8.93. Source
  • Q4 came in below guidance: Management said quarter results were lower than the $2.40 per share guided in the prior release, citing unfavorable December volume and mix in the legacy corrugated business and December volume at the acquired Greif business. Source
  • Legacy corrugated shipments per day eased: Legacy corrugated shipments per day were lower than a year earlier and higher than the third quarter of 2025. Source
  • Demand improved into January: Management said the order book strengthened as the quarter progressed and that demand improved across the customer base so far in January. Source
  • Packaging prices and mix added earnings: Compared with the fourth quarter of 2024, excluding special items, higher packaging prices and mix added $0.50 per share, lower fiber costs added $0.10, and lower fixed and other expenses added $0.04. Source
  • Wallula No. 2 machine discontinued: The company announced discontinuation of the No. 2 machine and kraft pulping at Wallula, Washington, and recorded $128.0 million of charges in the quarter. Source
  • Q1 EPS expected at $2.20: Management expects first-quarter EPS of $2.20 excluding special items, after the operating items it listed for the quarter. Source

“On the whole, we had a very strong year with growth in our earnings excluding special items and operating cash flows”

Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Earnings per share excluding special items Sourcefirst quarter 2026$2.20 per shareNew
Export containerboard prices Sourcefirst quarter 2026flat to slightly downNew

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: First-quarter 2026 EPS guidance of $2.20 excluding special items was given; the documents show no earlier first-quarter figure. Source
  • New: Discontinuation of the No. 2 machine and kraft pulping at the Wallula, Washington containerboard mill was announced, with $128.0 million of charges in the quarter. Source
  • Ended: The corrugated products plant count is 91, down from 93 in the previous release. Source

Fourth quarter and full-year results

  • Q4 EPS excluding special items declined: Fourth quarter EPS excluding special items was $2.32, against $2.47 a year earlier; reported diluted EPS was $1.13, after $1.19 of special items. Source
  • Full-year EPS excluding special items rose: Full-year EPS excluding special items was $9.84, against $9.04 in 2024; reported diluted EPS was $8.58, against $8.93. Source
  • Net sales rose year over year: Fourth quarter net sales were $2.4 billion, against $2.1 billion a year earlier; full-year net sales were $9.0 billion, against $8.4 billion. Source
  • EBITDA excluding special items rose: Total EBITDA excluding special items was $486.3 million for the quarter, against $439.3 million, and $1,861.6 million for the year, against $1,637.1 million. Source
  • Q4 came in below guidance: Management said quarter results were lower than the $2.40 per share guided in the prior release, citing unfavorable December volume and mix in the legacy corrugated business and December volume at the acquired Greif business. Source

Packaging segment and corrugated volumes

  • Legacy corrugated shipments per day eased: Legacy corrugated shipments per day were lower than a year earlier and higher than the third quarter of 2025. Source
  • Greif lifted total shipments per day: With the acquired Greif business included, shipments per day rose sharply from a year earlier and from the third quarter of 2025. Source
  • Packaging operating income declined: Packaging segment operating income was $173.3 million, against $297.2 million a year earlier; excluding special items it was $309.2 million, against $298.9 million. Source

“we are well positioned for continued profitable growth.”

Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO

Paper segment performance

  • Paper results described as performing well: Management said the Paper business performed well, citing higher year-over-year volumes, price realization and customer service. Source
  • Paper operating income near prior year: Paper segment operating income was $32.7 million, against $34.8 million a year earlier; full-year operating income was $129.6 million, against $129.7 million. Source
  • Paper sales trail the third quarter: Paper segment sales were $154.3 million for the quarter, against $151.5 million; full-year Paper sales were $615.4 million, against $624.7 million. Source

Demand and order book

  • Holiday mix and inventory management: Management attributed the less rich quarter mix to seasonal factors, including e-commerce volume through the holiday season and inventory management by other customers. Source
  • Demand improved into January: Management said the order book strengthened as the quarter progressed and that demand improved across the customer base so far in January. Source
  • Corrugated shipments slightly below record: Management described corrugated shipments in the quarter as slightly down from the record 2024 levels. Source

“Our order book strengthened as the fourth quarter progressed”

Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO

Costs, prices and margins

  • Packaging prices and mix added earnings: Compared with the fourth quarter of 2024, excluding special items, higher packaging prices and mix added $0.50 per share, lower fiber costs added $0.10, and lower fixed and other expenses added $0.04. Source
  • Operating, maintenance and freight costs rose: Higher operating costs, higher maintenance outage expense, higher legacy depreciation and higher freight each reduced quarter EPS excluding special items compared with a year earlier. Source
  • Lower legacy volume reduced earnings: Lower legacy production and sales volume reduced quarter EPS excluding special items, and lower Paper volume reduced it by a smaller amount. Source

Greif integration and Wallula restructuring

  • Greif integration progress and outages: Management said it made tremendous progress integrating the Greif business and planned no outages at the acquired mills in the first half of the year. Source
  • Greif business loss in quarter: The acquired Greif business, including interest on acquisition debt, lost $0.05 per share, which the company linked to extended Massillon outages for reliability work and inventory management. Source
  • Greif acquisition charges booked: Acquisition and integration charges for the September 2025 Greif acquisition were $6.7 million in the quarter and $33.2 million for the year. Source
  • Wallula No. 2 machine discontinued: The company announced discontinuation of the No. 2 machine and kraft pulping at Wallula, Washington, and recorded $128.0 million of charges in the quarter. Source

Capital, cash and shareholder returns

  • Capital spending rose year over year: Quarter capital spending was $319.0 million, against $201.3 million; full-year spending was $828.9 million, against $669.7 million. Source
  • Cash and securities balance lower: Cash, cash equivalents and marketable debt securities were $667.8 million at year end, against $852.2 million a year earlier. Source
  • Shares repurchased during the quarter: The company repurchased 760,000 shares during the quarter at an average price of $201 per share. Source

First quarter 2026 expectations

  • Q1 EPS expected at $2.20: Management expects first-quarter EPS of $2.20 excluding special items, after the operating items it listed for the quarter. Source
  • Mill output lower than fourth quarter: Mills are expected at full capacity but to produce less than in the fourth quarter, reflecting two fewer operating days, a Counce, TN maintenance outage and lower Wallula output. Source
  • Input costs to rise broadly: Management expects price inflation across most direct, indirect and fixed costs except fiber, with wood, energy and chemical costs also rising from winter conditions. Source
  • Labor and payroll costs step up: Labor and benefits costs will be higher from timing items at the start of the year, including annual increases, payroll taxes and share-based compensation. Source

Coming up, as management said on 28 January 2026

  • Containerboard price increases start March: Management expects to benefit from previously announced containerboard price increases beginning in March. Source
  • Wallula cost benefits begin in March: Management said the cost structure will begin to benefit from the Wallula reconfiguration in March. Source
  • First-quarter special items expected: Management expects first-quarter costs tied to Wallula restructuring, Greif integration and facility closures; additional special items may arise. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Legacy corrugated shipments per day, versus last year Sourcedown 1.7%
Legacy corrugated shipments per day, versus third quarter 2025 Sourceup 4.2%
Corrugated shipments per day including Greif, versus last year Sourceup 17.0%
Containerboard production Source1,407,000 tons
Containerboard inventory change, versus fourth quarter 2024 Sourceup 84,000 tons
Paper segment sales volume, versus last year Sourceup 1%
Corrugated products plants Source91

Risks management discussed

  • External: Winter conditions are expected to raise wood, energy and chemical costs through effects on usage and yields. Source
  • Operational: The winter storm across multiple regions left some plants down earlier in the week and could hit shipments and transportation costs. Source
  • Demand: Management cited inventory management by other customers as a factor in quarter volume. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Missed: Q4 results came in below the $2.40 per share guided in the previous release, which management attributed to December volume and mix. Source
  • Not stated: The prior release expected significant improvement in acquired business results; the current release reports a quarterly loss for that business.

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.