Otter Tail Corp.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call
What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 17 February 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 4 raised, 7 new, 3 kept. The quarter’s numbers.
Key takeaways
- Full-year diluted EPS was $6.55: The company reported 2025 diluted EPS of $6.55, against $7.17 in 2024, and net income of $275.9 million against $301.7 million. Source
- Electric earnings to rise 14% in 2026: Electric segment earnings are expected to rise 14% in 2026, drawing on rate base returns, interim rates, higher costs and higher depreciation and interest. Source
- Manufacturing volumes fell 6%: Manufacturing revenue fell $28.0 million, or 8.2%, to $314.5 million, on a 6% drop in sales volumes across agriculture, lawn and garden and recreational vehicles. Source
- Plastics prices fell 15%: Plastics revenue fell $40.7 million, or 8.8%, to $422.8 million, as average sales prices dropped 15% and sales volumes rose 8%. Source
- Plastics earnings to decline 36% in 2026: Plastics segment earnings are expected to fall 36% in 2026, on continued lower average product prices. Source
- Five-year capital plan totals $2.05 billion: Capital expenditures for 2026 to 2030 total $2,050 million, with $467 million planned for 2026 against $385 million in the prior plan. Source
- Rate cases filed in two states: The company filed rate cases in South Dakota and Minnesota, the first South Dakota filing since 2018 and the first Minnesota filing since 2020. Source
“We are pleased with our 2025 financial results as they exceeded our expectations for the year”
President and CEO Chuck MacFarlane
Guidance
| Area | Period | Figure | Against last quarter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diluted EPS Source | 2026 | $5.22 to $5.62 | New |
| Return on equity Source | 2026 | 12% at the midpoint | New |
| EPS by segment Source | 2026 | Electric $2.61 to $2.69; Manufacturing $0.26 to $0.32; Plastics $2.49 to $2.71; Corporate $(0.14) to $(0.10) | New |
| Electric segment earnings Source | 2026 | increase 14% | New |
| Manufacturing segment earnings Source | 2026 | increase 7% | New |
| Plastics segment earnings Source | 2026 | decline 36% | New |
| Earnings mix Source | 2026 | approximately 49% Electric; 51% Manufacturing and Plastics, net of corporate costs | New |
| Electric average rate base growth Source | 2026 | 14.0% (average rate base $2,403 million) | Raised from 11.6% growth; average rate base $2,360 million in the prior plan |
| Five-year electric rate base growth Source | 2025 to 2030 | 10% compounded annual growth | Kept |
| Long-term EPS growth target Source | long term | 7% to 9% | Kept |
| Total shareholder return target Source | long term | 10% to 12% | Kept |
| Capital expenditures Source | 2026 | $467 million | Raised from $385 million |
| Capital expenditures Source | 2026 to 2030 | $2,050 million total | Raised from $2,047 million |
| Electric segment capital expenditures Source | 2026 to 2030 | $1,921 million total | Raised from $1,918 million |
What changed from last quarter
- New guidance: 2026 diluted EPS guidance of $5.22 to $5.62 initiated, with a 12% return on equity projected at the midpoint. Source
- Ended: The prior 2025 EPS guidance range of $6.32 to $6.62 closed with reported 2025 diluted EPS of $6.55. Source
- Guidance raised: 2026 capital expenditure plan raised to $467 million from $385 million in the prior plan. Source
- Guidance raised: 2026 average electric rate base raised to $2,403 million from $2,360 million in the prior plan. Source
- Guidance kept: Five-year electric rate base growth of 10% reaffirmed; the prior release had raised it from 9%. Source
- Guidance kept: Long-term EPS growth target of 7% to 9% and total shareholder return target of 10% to 12% kept. Source
- New: South Dakota general rate case filed, the first South Dakota rate filing since 2018. Source
- New: Interim revenues from the Minnesota general rate case begin January 1, 2026. Source
Full-year and fourth-quarter results
- Full-year diluted EPS was $6.55: The company reported 2025 diluted EPS of $6.55, against $7.17 in 2024, and net income of $275.9 million against $301.7 million. Source
- Return on equity was 16%: Consolidated return on equity for 2025 was 16%, on an equity ratio of 63%. Source
- Fourth-quarter EPS was $1.23: Fourth-quarter diluted EPS was $1.23, down 5.4% from $1.30, with operating income of $67.6 million against $66.8 million. Source
Electric segment and weather
- Electric revenue rose on fuel and rates: Electric operating revenues rose $42.2 million to $566.8 million, mainly from fuel recovery, rate base recovery, higher sales volumes and favorable weather. Source
- Electric net income rose $6.6 million: Electric segment net income was $97.6 million, helped by higher retail revenues and lower operating and maintenance expenses, partly offset by depreciation and interest. Source
- Weather added to 2025 earnings: Weather added $0.10 to diluted EPS against 2024 and reduced it $0.03 against normal. Heating degree days were 97.1% of normal in 2025, against 83.7% in 2024. Source
- Electric earnings to rise 14% in 2026: Electric segment earnings are expected to rise 14% in 2026, drawing on rate base returns, interim rates, higher costs and higher depreciation and interest. Source
“This positioning became important towards the end of 2025 as customer order activity picked up, enabling us to end the year with momentum.”
President and CEO Chuck MacFarlane
Manufacturing demand and volumes
- Manufacturing volumes fell 6%: Manufacturing revenue fell $28.0 million, or 8.2%, to $314.5 million, on a 6% drop in sales volumes across agriculture, lawn and garden and recreational vehicles. Source
- Manufacturing net income down $2.2 million: Manufacturing net income was $11.5 million, down $2.2 million, reflecting lower volumes and higher general and administrative expenses, partly offset by production efficiencies. Source
- Demand softness through much of year: Management said soft end market demand continued through much of 2025 and followed a sharp volume decline beginning in the third quarter of 2024. Source
- Fourth-quarter volumes rose 11%: Fourth-quarter Manufacturing net income was $2.6 million, against a $0.6 million loss a year earlier, as customers began replenishing inventories. Source
- Contract fabrication flat to modest in 2026: For 2026 the company expects flat to modest volume growth in contract metal fabrication, with horticulture volumes rising as end markets improve. Source
Plastics pricing and volumes
- Plastics prices fell 15%: Plastics revenue fell $40.7 million, or 8.8%, to $422.8 million, as average sales prices dropped 15% and sales volumes rose 8%. Source
- Plastics net income down $30.3 million: Plastics net income was $170.4 million, down $30.3 million, as lower prices outweighed a 14% fall in PVC resin and other input costs and an 8% rise in volumes. Source
- Fourth-quarter prices down 20%: Fourth-quarter Plastics net income was $30.4 million, down $8.6 million, with prices 20% lower and input material costs down 22%. Source
- Vinyltech capacity supported volumes: Added Vinyltech capacity from late 2024 supported volumes and partly offset lower PVC pipe prices. Source
- Plastics earnings to decline 36% in 2026: Plastics segment earnings are expected to fall 36% in 2026, on continued lower average product prices. Source
“we are confident in our ability to deliver on our growth plan for the benefit of our customers and shareholders.”
President and CEO Chuck MacFarlane
Costs and corporate items
- Electric costs lower in fourth quarter: Fourth-quarter Electric net income rose $4.9 million to $26.4 million, with lower operating and maintenance expense and higher sales volumes. Source
- Corporate loss widened on state taxes: The fourth-quarter corporate net loss was $7.6 million, $2.6 million more than a year earlier, due to higher state income taxes. Source
- Electric operating costs to rise 2026: Electric operating and maintenance expense is expected to rise in 2026 on labor costs, planned outage costs at Big Stone Plant and reliability investments. Source
- Corporate costs to increase in 2026: Corporate costs are expected to rise in 2026, driven by lower investment income and higher labor costs. Source
- Depreciation and interest to rise: Depreciation and interest expense are rising with rate base investments and the financing that funds them. Source
- PVC resin costs flat in 2026: Raw material costs are expected flat in 2026 against 2025, with PVC resin supply and demand supporting current pricing. Source
Capital plan and rate base
- Five-year capital plan totals $2.05 billion: Capital expenditures for 2026 to 2030 total $2,050 million, with $467 million planned for 2026 against $385 million in the prior plan. Source
- Electric plan totals $1.92 billion: Electric segment capital spending is $1,921 million over 2026 to 2030, against $1,918 million in the prior plan. Source
- Plan covers solar, storage and grid: The plan covers solar and battery storage, transmission and distribution, and system reliability and technology investments. Source
- Average rate base up 14% in 2026: Average electric rate base is planned at $2,403 million in 2026, up 14.0%, from $2,360 million and 11.6% growth in the prior plan. Source
- Rate base growth target reaffirmed: The company reaffirmed a five-year electric rate base compounded annual growth rate of 10 percent. Source
Rate cases and customer rates
- Rate cases filed in two states: The company filed rate cases in South Dakota and Minnesota, the first South Dakota filing since 2018 and the first Minnesota filing since 2020. Source
- Minnesota request of $44.8 million: The October 2025 Minnesota filing requested about $44.8 million, or 17.7%, in additional rates.
- Minnesota increase drivers: The company attributes the Minnesota increase to infrastructure, grid resilience, accelerated Coyote Station recovery and inflation since the last review.
- Interim rates begin January 2026: Interim revenues from the Minnesota case begin January 1, 2026, and final South Dakota rates are anticipated. Source
- Rates to stay among lowest: Management said Otter Tail Power will continue to have some of the lowest electric rates in the region and country, even with the proposed increases. Source
Cash flow, liquidity and dividends
- Operating cash flow fell to $386.0 million: Operating cash flow was $386.0 million in 2025, down from $452.7 million, mainly on working capital, including fuel and rider recovery timing, and lower earnings. Source
- Capital spending of $288.1 million: Capital expenditures in 2025 were $288.1 million, mainly in the Electric segment, including wind repowering and solar. Source
- $100 million long-term debt issued: Otter Tail Power issued $100.0 million of long-term debt in 2025, with proceeds used to repay short-term borrowings, fund capital investments and support operations. Source
- Liquidity of $705.5 million at year-end: Total available liquidity at year-end was $705.5 million, including $386.2 million of cash. Dividends paid in 2025 totaled $88.1 million. Source
Earnings mix and long-term targets
- Earnings mix tilts to non-electric: The 2026 earnings mix of about 49% Electric and 51% non-electric differs from the long-term mix of 70% Electric and 30% non-electric. Source
- Plastics earnings elevated versus normal: Plastics earnings are expected to stay elevated in 2026 compared with the company's long-term view of normal earnings for that segment. Source
- Long-term targets maintained: The company continues to target long-term EPS growth of 7% to 9% and total shareholder return of 10% to 12%. Source
Coming up, as management said on 17 February 2026
- Vinyltech second phase due early 2026: Completion of the second phase of the Vinyltech expansion is expected in early 2026. Source
Figures management reported
| Figure | Reported |
|---|---|
| Electric average rate base growth Source | 14.0% in 2026 |
| Five-year rate base compounded annual growth rate Source | 10% |
| Capital plan 2026 to 2030 Source | $2,050 million total |
| Rate case request (Minnesota) | $44.8 million, or 17.7 percent |
| Load growth (retail MWh sales) Source | 5,917,736 MWh in 2025, up 4.2% |
| EPS growth target Source | 7% to 9% long-term |
Risks management discussed
- Demand: Plastics volume growth from new Phoenix capacity is partly offset by a subdued housing market. Source
- External: Management expects Plastics average sales prices to keep declining through 2026, from the 2022 peak. Source
Earlier plans management reported on
- Not stated: The company affirmed its long-term financial targets when it initiated 2026 EPS guidance. Source
- Not stated: Management says the 2026 to 2030 capital spending plan remains in place. Source
Other quarters
Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.