Northern Oil & Gas, Inc.: Q3 FY2026 earnings call

What management said about Q3 FY2026, from the documents filed with the SEC on 5 November 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 4 raised, 1 lowered, 1 narrowed, 4 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Read the filing

Key takeaways

• Record production led the quarter: Production averaged 156,239 Boe per day, up 19% from the third quarter of 2025 and 7.3% from the second quarter of 2026. Oil was about 48% of the mix. Source
• Adjusted EBITDA reached a record: Adjusted EBITDA was $444.5 million, up 11% from the second quarter, driven primarily by higher production volumes. Source
• Free cash flow reached $148.6 million: Free cash flow was $148.6 million, up 25.0% from the third quarter of 2025, after capital expenditures excluding non-budgeted acquisitions. Source
• Production guidance raised on Q3 result: Full-year production guidance rose to 147,000 to 150,000 Boe per day from 143,000 to 148,000. The oil low end moved up to 71,750 Bbls per day. Source
• Oil realized $82.83 per barrel: Unhedged realized oil price was $82.83 per Bbl in the quarter, on average oil production of 74,837 Bbls per day. Source
• Non-cash derivative loss of $308.0 million: The unrealized mark-to-market loss on derivatives was about $308.0 million, against the $300.0 to $320.0 million estimated in the October update. Source
• Leverage fell below 1.5 times: Net debt to annualized Adjusted EBITDA was 1.47 times at quarter end, after more than $100 million of total debt was retired in the quarter. Source

“The third quarter was a record for NOG, and the drivers matter as much as the results.”

Nick O’Grady, Chief Executive Officer

Guidance

What changed from last quarter

• Guidance raised: Annual production guidance was raised to 147,000 to 150,000 Boe per day from 143,000 to 148,000. Source
• Guidance raised: The low end of annual oil production guidance rose to 71,750 Bbls per day from 71,500. Source
• Guidance raised: The gas realization range rose to 77.5% to 82.5% of Henry Hub from 70.0% to 75.0%. Source
• Guidance lowered: The production tax range was adjusted to 7.00% to 7.25% of oil and gas sales from 7.5% to 8.0%. Source
• Guidance raised: The LOE per Boe range was adjusted up to $9.75 to $9.85 from $9.70 to $9.80. Source
• Guidance raised: The cash G&A range was adjusted up to $0.85 to $0.90 per Boe from $0.83 to $0.86. Source
• Guidance kept: The $850 to $900 million capital expenditure budget was maintained. Source

Results and growth drivers

• Record production led the quarter: Production averaged 156,239 Boe per day, up 19% from the third quarter of 2025 and 7.3% from the second quarter of 2026. Oil was about 48% of the mix. Source
• Gas volumes rose 39% year on year: Natural gas production averaged 488,391 Mcf per day, up 39% from the third quarter of 2025 and 5.2% from the second quarter of 2026. Source
• Adjusted EBITDA reached a record: Adjusted EBITDA was $444.5 million, up 11% from the second quarter, driven primarily by higher production volumes. Source
• GAAP loss with positive adjusted income: GAAP net loss was $111.8 million, or $1.06 per diluted share. Adjusted net income was $142.2 million, or $1.32 per adjusted diluted share. Source
• Free cash flow reached $148.6 million: Free cash flow was $148.6 million, up 25.0% from the third quarter of 2025, after capital expenditures excluding non-budgeted acquisitions. Source

Full-year 2026 guidance

• Production guidance raised on Q3 result: Full-year production guidance rose to 147,000 to 150,000 Boe per day from 143,000 to 148,000. The oil low end moved up to 71,750 Bbls per day. Source
• Capital budget held, trending high: The $850 to $900 million capital budget was kept. Capital expenditures are expected to trend toward the high end of the range given current activity levels. Source
• Cost ranges reset to year-to-date: Operating cost, production tax and cash G&A ranges were adjusted for costs incurred year to date. The production tax range moved to 7.00% to 7.25% of sales. Source
• Gas realization and differential ranges moved: The gas realization range rose to 77.5% to 82.5% of Henry Hub. The oil differential range moved to ($4.00) to ($4.50) per Bbl from ($5.00) to ($5.40). Source

“With every region performing, we are raising full-year production guidance while holding our capital budget unchanged.”

Nick O’Grady, Chief Executive Officer

Basins and well activity

• Williston and Permian led spending: Williston took 33% of third quarter capital expenditures and the Permian 31%. Appalachian was 16%, the Duvernay 11% and the Uinta 9%. Source
• Net wells added rose sharply: NOG added 23.9 net wells to production, compared with 12.7 in the second quarter, excluding major acquisitions. Year to date, 53.7 net wells were added. Source
• Appalachia set another production record: Appalachian volumes set a record as West Virginia joint development wells continued to outperform. Source
• Oil basin activity accelerated with prices: The October update said development activity across the oil basins accelerated as strip prices rallied, with a clean quarter and minimal field disruptions.

Pricing and realizations

• Oil realized $82.83 per barrel: Unhedged realized oil price was $82.83 per Bbl in the quarter, on average oil production of 74,837 Bbls per day. Source
• Oil differential narrowed to $2.84: The average differential to WTI was $2.84, against $3.03 in the second quarter, and improved 27% from the third quarter of 2025. Source
• Gas realized 98% of Henry Hub: Unhedged realized gas price was $2.84 per Mcf. Management said Waha pricing has normalized and NGL realizations continue to show strength. Source

“Put simply, we expect to deliver more for the same capital.”

Nick O’Grady, Chief Executive Officer

Hedging and derivative results

• Non-cash derivative loss of $308.0 million: The unrealized mark-to-market loss on derivatives was about $308.0 million, against the $300.0 to $320.0 million estimated in the October update. Source
• Realized hedge losses of $51.4 million: Gas hedge gains were more than offset by crude oil hedge losses. The October estimate for realized losses was $51.0 to $52.0 million. Source
• Fourth quarter crude swaps in place: Open crude swaps cover 19,745 Bbls per day for the fourth quarter of 2026 at a weighted average $68.26 per Bbl. Gas swaps cover 131,685 MMBtu per day at $4.16. Source

Operating costs and margins

• Lease operating costs up 2% per unit: LOE was $143.5 million, or $9.98 per Boe, driven in part by higher processing costs. Source
• Production taxes rose on prices and volumes: Production taxes were $48.3 million, against $28.7 million a year earlier, on higher oil prices and record gas volumes. That is $3.36 per Boe. Source
• G&A rose on growth corporate costs: Total G&A was $1.25 per Boe, against $1.17 a year earlier. Adjusted cash G&A was $12.6 million, or $0.88 per Boe, down $0.06 from the second quarter. Source

Capital spending and well costs

• Capital spend below October estimate: Capital expenditures were $247.3 million excluding non-budgeted acquisitions and other, against the $250.0 to $253.0 million estimated in October. Source
• Organic and Ground Game split: Organic drilling and completion capital was $190.7 million. Ground Game added 19 deals, about 1,060 net acres and 2.9 net wells, for $56.5 million; October said 2.8 net wells. Source
• Normalized well cost fell 2.9%: AFE-normalized well cost averaged about $739 per lateral foot, down from $761 in the second quarter. Source

Debt, liquidity and borrowing base

• Leverage fell below 1.5 times: Net debt to annualized Adjusted EBITDA was 1.47 times at quarter end, after more than $100 million of total debt was retired in the quarter. Source
• Liquidity of $1.6 billion: Liquidity included $1,577.0 million of revolver availability and $26.4 million of cash. Weighted average debt maturity is 5.3 years, with the earliest maturity in 2029. Source
• $500 million notes issued in August: The 7.5% notes due 2034 were issued in an oversubscribed offering. Proceeds paid down part of the revolver and funded general corporate purposes. Source
• Borrowing base held at $1.975 billion: The semi-annual redetermination kept the elected commitment at $1.8 billion and the borrowing base at $1.975 billion. Source

Shareholder returns

• Dividend held at $0.45 a share: A $0.45 dividend was paid October 30, and another $0.45 was declared in November, payable January 29, 2027. Source
• 667,989 shares repurchased: Shares were bought at an average $23.96 including commissions, about $16.0 million according to the October update. Source
• Repurchase capacity lifted by $150 million: In July the board added $150.0 million to the buyback program, leaving about $227.2 million of repurchase capacity at September 30. Source

Strategy and management view

• Assets fund growth and excess cash: Management said the assets are self-funding their growth and generating excess cash, which is being put to work in debt reduction and buybacks. Source
• Shares seen at deep discount: Management said its shares, like many in the sector, trade at a deep discount to the assets, and that the company intends to act on that gap. Source
• Records described as not a ceiling: Management said the quarter's records are not a ceiling and that the company intends to keep delivering for investors. Source

Coming up, as management said on 5 November 2026

• Dividend payable January 29, 2027: The $0.45 per share dividend will be paid January 29, 2027, to holders of record at the close of business on December 30, 2026. Source
• Utica activity to accelerate: Management said the Utica joint development begins to accelerate activity, following West Virginia wells that continued to outperform. Source

Figures management reported

Risks management discussed

• Financial: Non-cash mark-to-market losses on derivatives drove the GAAP net loss for the quarter. Source
• Financial: Realized hedge losses on crude oil hedges offset gains on natural gas hedges, leaving a net realized loss of $51.4 million. Source
• Operational: Lease operating costs rose 2% per unit, which management said was driven in part by higher processing costs. Source
• Operational: G&A per Boe rose on higher general corporate costs supporting growth initiatives. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

• Ahead: Management said leverage was brought below 1.5 times a quarter ahead of the year-end goal. Source
• Ahead: Uinta assets continued to outperform internal estimates on legacy production and on the 2026 development program. Source
• Met: The October update described a clean quarter with all basins meeting internal expectations.
• Not stated: The October update reiterated the 2026 capital expenditures guidance.

Other quarters

• Q2 FY2026 earnings call
• Q1 FY2026 results
• Q4 FY2025 results
• Q3 FY2025 results

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.