greeksoup/ stock research

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 23 February 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 1 raised, 10 new, 4 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Revenue up 21.9 percent in Q4: Revenue was $345.1 million, up from $283.1 million, with 20.0 percent organic growth. Operating income was $8.2 million and GAAP net income $5.9 million, or $0.03 per diluted share. Source
  • Full-year revenue $1.347 billion: Full-year 2025 revenue was $1.347 billion, up 18.5 percent and 16.6 percent organically. Full-year net income was $22.0 million, diluted EPS $0.13, and adjusted EPS $0.55 against $0.49. Source
  • KGS revenue grew 22.2 percent organically: KGS revenue was $276.6 million, up 22.2 percent organically. KGS operating income was $17.3 million against $11.0 million, and Adjusted EBITDA was $27.7 million. Source
  • Bid investments weigh on margins: Management said bid, proposal and new-program investments are currently adversely affecting profit margins. Source
  • Q4 operating cash flow positive: Operating cash flow was $12.1 million, after about $51.8 million of working capital use for receivables, inventory and development investments. Free cash flow used was $0.1 million after $24.2 million of capex. Source
  • First quarter expected to be lowest: Management expects the fiscal first quarter to be the lowest in revenue and Adjusted EBITDA, including the effect of the shutdown and loss of leverage on fixed costs. Source
  • Hypersonics seen as main growth driver: Management said the hypersonic franchise is expected to be a primary driver of future revenue growth. Source

“We finished 2025 exceeding our financial objectives for the fourth quarter, generating approximately 20 percent Q4 year- over-year organic Revenue growth, generating a 1.3 to 1.0 book to bill ratio”

Eric DeMarco, Kratos’ President and CEO

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Revenue, first quarter SourceQ1 2026$335 - $345 millionRaised from $330 to $340 million
Revenue SourceFY2026$1.595 billion to $1.675 billionNew
Adjusted EBITDA, first quarter SourceQ1 2026$25 - $30 millionNew
Adjusted EBITDA SourceFY2026$157.0 million to $167.0 million (9.9% to 10.0% of revenue)New
Research and development expense SourceFY2026$44 - $47 millionNew
Operating income SourceFY2026$55 - $60 millionNew
Operating cash flow SourceFY2026$50 - $60 millionNew
Capital expenditures SourceFY2026$135 - $145 millionNew
Free cash flow use SourceFY2026($85 - $95) millionNew
Rocket system inventory build (working capital) SourceFY2026$40 - $45 millionNew
Adjusted EBITDA margin SourceFY2026approximately 100 bps above 2025 reported margin rateKept
Organic revenue growth SourceFY202615 percent to 20 percent above FY2025 forecastKept
Organic revenue growth SourceFY202718 percent to 23 percent above FY2026 forecastKept
Adjusted EBITDA margin SourceFY2027additional 100 bps above 2026 margin ratesKept
Valkyrie production rate Sourceby end of 2027approximately 40 Valkyries annuallyNew

What changed from last quarter

  • Guidance raised: First-quarter 2026 revenue range raised to $335 to $345 million from $330 to $340 million. Source
  • New guidance: Full-year 2026 revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, operating cash flow and capital expenditure ranges were given in this release. Source
  • New: Nomad Global Communication Solutions acquisition has closed, and the 2026 forecasts include its expected contribution. Source
  • New: Pending Orbit Technologies acquisition is excluded from the forecasts until it closes. Source
  • New: Northrop Grumman received the MUX TACAIR CCA program award, with Kratos Valkyrie as the CCA aircraft. Source
  • New: Kratos was selected, with other non-traditional vendors, to develop a next-generation highly maneuverable hypersonic missile. Source
  • New: Valkyrie production-rate increase is planned to start in 2026, based on customer delivery schedules. Source
  • New: The 2026 NDAA and fiscal 2026 defense appropriations were signed since the prior report, and the shutdown and continuing resolution were resolved. Source

Fourth quarter and full-year results

  • Revenue up 21.9 percent in Q4: Revenue was $345.1 million, up from $283.1 million, with 20.0 percent organic growth. Operating income was $8.2 million and GAAP net income $5.9 million, or $0.03 per diluted share. Source
  • Adjusted EPS and EBITDA both rose: Adjusted EPS was $0.18 against $0.13 a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $34.1 million, or 9.9 percent of revenue, against $25.2 million. Source
  • Full-year revenue $1.347 billion: Full-year 2025 revenue was $1.347 billion, up 18.5 percent and 16.6 percent organically. Full-year net income was $22.0 million, diluted EPS $0.13, and adjusted EPS $0.55 against $0.49. Source

Segment results: KUS and KGS

  • KUS revenue rose on Valkyrie activity: Unmanned Systems revenue was $68.5 million, up 12.1 percent organically. Operating income was $1.9 million against an operating loss of $0.7 million a year earlier. Source
  • KUS Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled: KUS Adjusted EBITDA was $6.4 million, or 9.3 percent of revenue, against $2.6 million. Full-year KUS revenue was $292.0 million, up 7.9 percent organically. Source
  • KGS revenue grew 22.2 percent organically: KGS revenue was $276.6 million, up 22.2 percent organically. KGS operating income was $17.3 million against $11.0 million, and Adjusted EBITDA was $27.7 million. Source
  • Rocket, microwave and space lines grew: Defense Rocket Systems grew 47.4 percent organically, Microwave Products 32.4 percent, and Space, Training and Cyber 22.7 percent, in the quarter. Source

“We believe that the scarcity value of Kratos is clear, and we are laser focused on our balanced business model of making investments”

Eric DeMarco, Kratos’ President and CEO

Bookings and book-to-bill ratios

  • KUS book-to-bill 1.9 to 1 in Q4: KUS book-to-bill was 1.9 to 1 for the quarter and 1.2 to 1 for the twelve months. Source
  • KGS book-to-bill 1.1 to 1: KGS book-to-bill was 1.1 to 1 for the quarter and for the last twelve months, on bookings of $310.7 million for the quarter and $1.117 billion for twelve months. Source
  • Twelve-month ratio read over timing: Management said the twelve-month book-to-bill ratio is treated as meaningful because quarter-to-quarter bookings timing varies. Source

Margins and cost pressure

  • Gross profit rose with revenue: Gross profit was $83.4 million against $69.8 million. SG&A was $57.0 million against $47.9 million, and R&D expense was $9.8 million against $10.6 million. Stock compensation was $9.1 million. Source
  • Bid investments weigh on margins: Management said bid, proposal and new-program investments are currently adversely affecting profit margins. Source
  • KUS costs on fixed-price contracts: Full-year KUS Adjusted EBITDA rose on volume, partly offset by higher material and subcontractor costs on multi-year fixed price contracts. Source
  • Bid spending runs into fiscal 2027: Management said these investments are expected to continue at least into fiscal 2027. Source

“We believe that Kratos’ strategy and consistent business plan since inception, including making true internally funded investments ahead of government commitment”

Eric DeMarco, Kratos’ President and CEO

Cash flow, capital and shareholder returns

  • Q4 operating cash flow positive: Operating cash flow was $12.1 million, after about $51.8 million of working capital use for receivables, inventory and development investments. Free cash flow used was $0.1 million after $24.2 million of capex. Source
  • Full-year cash use and higher capex: Full-year operating cash flow was a use of $42.1 million and capex was $95.3 million, including two Valkyrie production lots built before contract award. Free cash flow used was $125.4 million. Source
  • Equity raised, credit facility repaid: Year-end cash was $560.6 million. Common stock issuance net proceeds were $555.9 million, and $185.0 million was repaid under the credit facility and term loan. Source
  • No dividends or buybacks: Management said the company is not paying dividends or buying back its stock, and that this approach is aligned with the current Administration. Source

2026 phasing and timing

  • First quarter expected to be lowest: Management expects the fiscal first quarter to be the lowest in revenue and Adjusted EBITDA, including the effect of the shutdown and loss of leverage on fixed costs. Source
  • Shutdown delayed short-turn awards: The shutdown delayed certain short-turn awards to Kratos, including software, data and product sales that typically carry higher than normal margins. Source
  • Second half expected to be greater: Management expects second-half revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow to exceed the first half, as long-lead items arrive in the second half. Source

Strategy, programs and investment

  • Hypersonics seen as main growth driver: Management said the hypersonic franchise is expected to be a primary driver of future revenue growth. Source
  • Another tactical drone award received: Kratos received another tactical drone program of record award, and management believes it is in a sole source position for two more, including Valkyrie. Source
  • 2026 investments in facilities and programs: Forecast 2026 investments include funding the Prometheus joint venture, the Anaconda radar, Helios hypersonic work, and facilities in Indiana, Birmingham, Israel and the US. Source
  • Forecasts exclude large Valkyrie production: Base case revenue and Adjusted EBITDA forecasts exclude large-scale Valkyrie and other tactical drone production until delivery schedules can be forecast. Source

Government funding and policy environment

  • 2026 national security spend near $1 trillion: Management cited approved 2026 national security related spend of about $1 trillion. Source
  • Defense industrial base recapitalization: Management described a generational recapitalization of the defense industrial base as underway and said Kratos is uniquely positioned to address it. Source
  • Customers seen as short of time: Management said certain customers are out of time with limited immediate resources, which makes Kratos’ first-to-market systems more valuable. Source

Coming up, as management said on 23 February 2026

  • Solid rocket motor deliveries begin: Management has 120 Zeus and Oriole solid rocket motors on order, with deliveries starting in Q3 2026 and ramping into 2027. Source
  • Hypersonic program award hoped for by year-end: Management hopes to receive an additional program-related hypersonic award of about $1 billion by year-end, which it believes would be sole source to Kratos as prime. Source
  • Long-lead items arrive second half: Management expects to begin receiving long-lead items in the second half of 2026, including solid rocket motors and hardware for hypersonic and other programs. Source
  • Second-quarter results somewhat higher: Management expects second-quarter 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA to be somewhat higher than the first quarter. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Consolidated backlog Source$1.573 billion
Funded backlog Source$1.232 billion
Bid and proposal pipeline Source$13.7 billion
Consolidated bookings, fourth quarter Source$438.3 million
KUS backlog Source$361.7 million
KGS backlog Source$1.212 billion

Risks management discussed

  • Operational: Management cited workforce sourcing, hiring and retention, and manufacturing and supply chain disruptions as assumptions behind the guidance. Source
  • Financial: Management flagged continued significant cost and price increases for parts and related areas as an assumption in the guidance. Source
  • Demand: Management said the shutdown also delayed the award of certain longer-term contracts, programs and funding. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • On track: Management said the company is positioned to achieve the 2026 and 2027 financial targets it previously communicated. Source
  • Ahead: Management said the company exceeded the full-year 2025 revenue forecast it provided in November 2025. Source
  • Not stated: Management reiterated the 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion it had first forecast in the prior quarter. Source
  • Delayed: Awards, sales and funding delayed by the shutdown are expected to be received beginning in the second quarter of 2026. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.