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Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 4 March 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 12 new. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Fourth-quarter net sales rose 10.7%: Net sales rose 10.7% to $1.22 billion, including $82.4 million from the 53rd week. The increase came from new store sales, partly offset by the comparable decline. Source
  • Q4 operating loss from impairments: Management reported an operating loss of $234.8 million and a net loss of $218.2 million, or $(2.22) per diluted share, against net income of $2.3 million a year earlier. Source
  • Adjusted EBITDA rose in the quarter: Adjusted EBITDA was $68.0 million, or 5.6% of net sales, against $57.2 million, or 5.2%, a year earlier. Diluted adjusted EPS was $0.19, against $0.15. Source
  • Full-year net loss against prior profit: Fiscal 2025 net loss was $224.9 million, or $(2.30) per diluted share, against net income of $39.5 million, or $0.40 per diluted share, in fiscal 2024. Source
  • Fourth-quarter comparable sales fell 0.8%: Comparable store sales declined 0.8% on a 13-week basis. Average transaction size dropped 1.7%, partly offset by a 0.9% rise in transactions. Source
  • Q4 SG&A rate rose 70 basis points: SG&A rose 13.6% to $337.1 million, or 27.7% of sales. Drivers were higher incentive compensation, new-store depreciation and operator commissions, partly offset by lower severance. Source
  • Fourth-quarter margin rose on inventory management: Gross margin was 29.7%, up 20 basis points, driven mainly by improved inventory management. Source
  • Operating cash flow rose to $222.1M: Operating cash flow was $222.1 million, against $112.0 million, driven by improved inventory management and timing of payments. Source

“We made progress on our strategic priorities in 2025; however, our fourth-quarter results made clear that we have more work to do, and we’re moving quickly,”

Jason Potter, President and CEO of Grocery Outlet

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
New store openings, net Sourcefiscal 202630-33New
Net sales Sourcefiscal 2026$4.60 - $4.72 billionNew
Comparable store sales Sourcefiscal 2026-2.0% to 0.0%New
Gross margin Sourcefiscal 202629.7% - 30.0%New
Adjusted EBITDA Sourcefiscal 2026$220 million to $235 millionNew
Diluted adjusted earnings per share Sourcefiscal 2026$0.45 - $0.55New
Capital expenditures, net of tenant improvement allowances Sourcefiscal 2026$170 millionNew
Optimization Plan net restructuring charges Sourcefiscal 2026$14 million to $25 millionNew
Optimization Plan estimated cash expenditures Sourcefiscal 2026$51 million to $63 millionNew
Optimization Plan bad debt expense Sourcefiscal 2026$11 million to $14 millionNew
Net non-cash write-off of right-of-use assets and lease liabilities Sourcefiscal 2026$(48) million to $(52) millionNew
Gross profit impact from closure-store inventory liquidation Sourcefiscal 2026$4 million to $6 millionNew

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: Fiscal 2026 guidance was given for the first time, covering store openings, sales, comparable sales, margins, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS and capital expenditures. Source
  • New: The Board adopted the Optimization Plan on March 2, 2026, providing for closure of 36 underperforming stores. Source
  • New: Management is reshaping the new store growth strategy and reallocating resources toward operating results and returns on capital. Source

Fourth quarter and full-year results

  • Fourth-quarter net sales rose 10.7%: Net sales rose 10.7% to $1.22 billion, including $82.4 million from the 53rd week. The increase came from new store sales, partly offset by the comparable decline. Source
  • Q4 operating loss from impairments: Management reported an operating loss of $234.8 million and a net loss of $218.2 million, or $(2.22) per diluted share, against net income of $2.3 million a year earlier. Source
  • Adjusted EBITDA rose in the quarter: Adjusted EBITDA was $68.0 million, or 5.6% of net sales, against $57.2 million, or 5.2%, a year earlier. Diluted adjusted EPS was $0.19, against $0.15. Source
  • Full-year net sales rose 7.3%: Fiscal 2025 net sales rose 7.3% to $4.69 billion. Adjusted EBITDA rose 7.4% to $254.3 million, or 5.4% of net sales. Source
  • Full-year net loss against prior profit: Fiscal 2025 net loss was $224.9 million, or $(2.30) per diluted share, against net income of $39.5 million, or $0.40 per diluted share, in fiscal 2024. Source
  • Fiscal 2026 compares against 53 weeks: Fiscal 2025 and the fourth quarter each included an additional week. Management said fiscal 2026 will contain 52 weeks of operating results. Source

Traffic, ticket and customer focus

  • Fourth-quarter comparable sales fell 0.8%: Comparable store sales declined 0.8% on a 13-week basis. Average transaction size dropped 1.7%, partly offset by a 0.9% rise in transactions. Source
  • Full-year traffic up, ticket down: For fiscal 2025, transactions rose 1.6% and average transaction size fell 1.1%, producing comparable store sales growth of 0.5% on a 52-week basis. Source
  • Restoring the opportunistic mix: Management said it is intensely focused on restoring the opportunistic mix to rebuild value perception with the customer and advancing the store refresh program. Source

“In response, we have begun to sharpen our focus on what matters most: delivering clearer value and a better in-store experience.”

Jason Potter, President and CEO of Grocery Outlet

Costs and operating expenses

  • Q4 SG&A rate rose 70 basis points: SG&A rose 13.6% to $337.1 million, or 27.7% of sales. Drivers were higher incentive compensation, new-store depreciation and operator commissions, partly offset by lower severance. Source
  • Full-year SG&A rate rose 30 basis points: Fiscal 2025 SG&A rose 8.5% to $1.33 billion, or 28.4% of sales. Drivers included new-store costs, bad debt reserves and personnel costs from acquired stores, partly offset by lower operator commission support. Source
  • Restructuring charges totaled $45.9 million: Fiscal 2025 restructuring charges were $45.9 million, made up of $38.2 million in cash charges and $7.7 million in non-cash charges under the Restructuring Plan. Source

Gross margin and pricing

  • Fourth-quarter margin rose on inventory management: Gross margin was 29.7%, up 20 basis points, driven mainly by improved inventory management. Source
  • Price investments and mix weighed: Price investments and mix shifts into lower-margin categories partly offset the inventory gain in the quarter. Source
  • Fiscal margin up 10 basis points: Gross margin for fiscal 2025 was 30.3%, up 10 basis points. Gross profit rose 7.4% to $1.42 billion. Source

“We are confident that we have identified the core challenges, and now have the right plans in place and the right team to execute them.”

Jason Potter, President and CEO of Grocery Outlet

Store fleet and strategy

  • Store fleet reviewed in first quarter: Management said the store fleet was analyzed in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, before the Optimization Plan was adopted. Source
  • Leases and operator agreements to end: Closures involve terminating or subleasing store leases, a distribution center lease no longer in use, and independent operator agreements for affected locations. Source
  • Store refresh showing early improvements: The refresh program, launched at pilot stores in the third quarter according to the prior release, is advancing, and management said early measurable improvements are visible. Source

Cash, capital and shareholder returns

  • Operating cash flow rose to $222.1M: Operating cash flow was $222.1 million, against $112.0 million, driven by improved inventory management and timing of payments. Source
  • Net capex rose on new stores: Capital expenditures before tenant allowances were $220.3 million. Net of allowances they were $191.9 million, against $185.7 million, due to new store openings and supply chain investment. Source
  • No share repurchases in fiscal 2025: The fiscal 2025 cash flow statement shows no repurchase of common stock, against $81,355 thousand of repurchases in fiscal 2024. Source
  • Revolver and term loan activity: Fiscal 2025 revolver borrowings were $70.0 million, with $40.0 million repaid. The senior term loan was reduced by $15.0 million. Source

Coming up, as management said on 4 March 2026

  • Optimization closures finish in 2026: Management expects the Optimization Plan actions to be substantially completed during fiscal 2026. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Comparable store sales, fourth quarter (13-week basis) Source-0.8%
Comparable store sales, fiscal 2025 (52-week basis) Source+0.5%
Transactions (traffic), fourth quarter Source+0.9%
Average transaction size, fourth quarter Source-1.7%
Transactions (traffic), fiscal 2025 Source+1.6%
Average transaction size, fiscal 2025 Source-1.1%
Gross margin, fourth quarter Source29.7%
Gross margin, fiscal 2025 Source30.3%
Merchandise inventories, January 3, 2026 (in thousands) Source381,961
Store openings, fourth quarter Source7
Store closings, fourth quarter Source0
Store count, end of fourth quarter Source570 stores in 16 states
Store openings, fiscal 2025 Source42
Store closings, fiscal 2025 Source5

Risks management discussed

  • Demand: Delayed government benefit disbursements were cited as weighing on fourth-quarter comparable store sales. Source
  • Demand: Management cited heavier consumer pressure, delayed benefit funding and more promotional competition in the fourth quarter. Source
  • Financial: Management said substantially all of the quarter's long-lived asset impairment related to underperforming stores it later decided to close. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Not stated: In the prior release, management planned to expand the refresh program with a broad rollout starting in the fourth quarter.
  • Not stated: In the prior release, management said its efforts and team positioned it to accelerate same store sales growth in 2026.

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.