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Freeport-McMoRan Inc.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 22 January 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 1 raised, 20 new, 2 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Copper sales above October estimates: Fourth-quarter copper sales of 709 million pounds were 12% above the October 2025 estimate of 635 million pounds, mainly from a larger inventory reduction in Indonesia. Source
  • Net income and adjusted figures: Net income attributable to common stock was $406 million, $0.28 per share. Excluding $282 million of after-tax charges, adjusted net income was $688 million, $0.47 per share. Source
  • Copper production down on mud rush: Fourth-quarter copper production of 640 million pounds was far below the prior year, which management tied to the September 2025 mud rush incident at PTFI. Source
  • Block Cave restart set for Q2 2026: Management said activities are on track for a phased restart of the Grasberg Block Cave mine beginning in second-quarter 2026. Source
  • About 85% of output back in H2: PTFI expects about 85% of its total production at normal operating rates to be restored in the second half of 2026. Source
  • Unit costs below October estimate: Fourth-quarter consolidated unit net cash costs were below the October estimate of $2.47 per pound, mainly on higher copper volumes and PTFI by-product credits. Source
  • Net debt $2.3 billion: Net debt at year-end 2025 was $2.3 billion, excluding $3.2 billion of debt for PTFI’s downstream processing facilities. Source

“As we enter 2026, our team has a clear focus on restoring operations at Grasberg safely and sustainably, and on continuing to build values in the Americas through our innovative growth and efficiency initiatives.”

Kathleen Quirk, President and Chief Executive Officer

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Consolidated sales volumes Sourceyear 20263.4 billion lb copper; 0.8 million oz gold; 90 million lb molybdenumNew
Consolidated sales volumes Sourcefirst-quarter 2026640 million lb copper; 60 thousand oz gold; 22 million lb molybdenumNew
Consolidated unit net cash costs, copper Sourceyear 2026$1.75 per lbNew
Consolidated unit net cash costs, copper Sourcefirst-quarter 2026$2.60 per lbNew
Operating cash flows Sourceyear 2026approximately $8 billionNew
Operating cash flows at recent prices Sourceyear 2026approximately $11 billionNew
Capital expenditures Sourceyear 2026$4.3 billion, including $3.0 billion for major mining projectsNew
Major mining projects capital split Sourceyear 2026$1.4 billion planned projects; $1.6 billion discretionary growth projectsNew
Consolidated effective tax rate Sourceyear 2026approximately 33%New
Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests Sourcefirst-quarter 2026 and year 2026$0.3 billion (first quarter); $2.4 billion (year)New
U.S. copper sales Sourceyear 2026approximately 1.4 billion lbNew
U.S. copper unit net cash costs Sourceyear 2026approximately $2.96 per lbNew
South America copper unit net cash costs Sourceyear 2026approximately $2.58 per lbNew
South America copper sales Sourceyear 2026approximately 1.1 billion lbNew
PTFI consolidated sales Sourceyear 2026approximately 0.9 billion lb copper; 0.8 million oz goldNew
PTFI unit net cash credits, copper Sourceyear 2026approximately $1.13 per lbNew
Molybdenum unit net cash costs Sourceyear 2026approximately $16.60 per lbNew
Grasberg production restored Sourcesecond half of 2026approximately 85% of total production at normal operating ratesNew
Share of 2026 sales in second half Sourceyear 2026approximately 60% of copper sales; 75% of gold salesNew
Production above sales (inventory deferral) Sourceyear 2026approximately 100 million lb copper; 100 thousand oz goldNew
Leaching copper production target Sourceyear 2026300 million lb copperKept
Bagdad expansion capital, copper added and incentive price Sourcenot stated$3.5 billion capex; 200 to 250 million lb copper per year; incentive price approximately $4.00 per lb
El Abra mill project copper added Sourceper yearover 700 million lb copper
Kucing Liar full-rate production Sourcefull operating rates750 million lb copper; 735 thousand oz goldRaised from 560 million pounds of copper and 520 thousand ounces of gold
FCX ownership of PTFI Sourcethrough 2041; after 2041approximately 49%; approximately 37% after 2041Kept

What changed from last quarter

  • New: Production Blocks 2 and 3 are the first Block Cave restart; the potential restart of Production Block 1 is now dated to 2027. Source
  • Ended: The smelting standby ended when PT Smelting restarted in late December 2025, at reduced rates. Source

Fourth-quarter results

  • Copper sales above October estimates: Fourth-quarter copper sales of 709 million pounds were 12% above the October 2025 estimate of 635 million pounds, mainly from a larger inventory reduction in Indonesia. Source
  • Gold sales also above estimates: Gold sales of 80 thousand ounces were 33% above the October estimate of 60 thousand ounces, with the same Indonesian inventory reduction cited. Source
  • Net income and adjusted figures: Net income attributable to common stock was $406 million, $0.28 per share. Excluding $282 million of after-tax charges, adjusted net income was $688 million, $0.47 per share. Source
  • Copper production down on mud rush: Fourth-quarter copper production of 640 million pounds was far below the prior year, which management tied to the September 2025 mud rush incident at PTFI. Source

Grasberg restart and PTFI recovery

  • Block Cave restart set for Q2 2026: Management said activities are on track for a phased restart of the Grasberg Block Cave mine beginning in second-quarter 2026. Source
  • Other PTFI mines back in October: PTFI restarted the unaffected DMLZ and Big Gossan underground mines in late October 2025. Source
  • About 85% of output back in H2: PTFI expects about 85% of its total production at normal operating rates to be restored in the second half of 2026. Source
  • Insurance recovery being sought: PTFI is seeking recovery under property and business interruption policies, with a $0.5 billion deductible and limits of $1.0 billion, or $0.7 billion for underground incidents. Source

“Freeport is strongly positioned for the future as a leading producer of copper with large scale, geographically diverse operations and an exciting portfolio of growth projects to provide additional supplies of copper to a growing market.”

Kathleen Quirk, President and Chief Executive Officer

Segments and regions

  • U.S. copper sales rose: U.S. copper sales were 342 million pounds in fourth-quarter 2025, above the prior-year quarter, on higher ore grades and leach placements. Source
  • South America sales fell: South America copper sales were 255 million pounds in fourth-quarter 2025, below the prior-year quarter, on lower mill ore grades and leach placements. Source
  • Indonesia sales far below prior year: PTFI copper sales of 112 million pounds and gold sales of 75 thousand ounces were significantly lower than a year earlier, reflecting the mud rush incident. Source
  • Molybdenum output higher: Molybdenum mines produced 11 million pounds in fourth-quarter 2025, up from 9 million pounds a year earlier. Source

Products, customers and downstream

  • Copper sold mainly as concentrate and cathode: For 2025, mined copper was sold 43% as concentrate, 33% as cathode and 24% as rod. Source
  • Indonesian smelting stood by in Q4: Smelting in Indonesia was temporarily suspended in fourth-quarter 2025 because concentrate was limited after the mud rush incident. Source
  • Smelter shipments expected to resume H2: Shipments to PTFI’s new smelter are expected to resume in the second half of 2026, depending on the ramp-up of mining. Source

Costs, margins and pricing

  • Unit costs below October estimate: Fourth-quarter consolidated unit net cash costs were below the October estimate of $2.47 per pound, mainly on higher copper volumes and PTFI by-product credits. Source
  • Idle facility costs kept out of unit cost: Unit cost excluded $454 million of idle facility costs and direct recovery expenses from the mud rush incident. Source
  • Unit cost up on lower PTFI volumes: Fourth-quarter unit cash costs were above the fourth-quarter 2024 level of $1.66 per pound, mainly from lower PTFI copper volumes. Source
  • Realized prices in fourth quarter: Average realized prices in fourth-quarter 2025 were $5.33 per pound for copper, $4,078 per ounce for gold and $23.77 per pound for molybdenum. Source
  • Provisionally priced copper open: At year-end, 152 million pounds of copper sales remained provisionally priced at an average of $5.64 per pound, subject to final settlement. Source
  • Atlantic Copper deferred profit: Net deferred profits on Atlantic Copper inventories totaled $122 million, or $40 million to net income attributable to common stock, at year-end 2025. Source

Operating cash flow and capital spending

  • Operating cash flow after working capital: Operating cash flows were $0.7 billion in fourth-quarter 2025 after $0.8 billion of working capital and other uses, and $5.6 billion for 2025 after $1.3 billion. Source
  • Costs and capex cut during ramp-up: Management is managing costs and near-term capital expenditures in connection with revised Grasberg operating plans to manage cash flow and liquidity during the phased ramp-up. Source
  • Copper price sensitivity of 2026 cash flow: Each $0.10 per pound change in copper price would change 2026 operating cash flow by about $330 million. Source

Balance sheet and shareholder returns

  • Net debt $2.3 billion: Net debt at year-end 2025 was $2.3 billion, excluding $3.2 billion of debt for PTFI’s downstream processing facilities. Source
  • Revolver availability: Revolving credit availability was $3.0 billion at FCX, $1.5 billion at PTFI and $350 million at Cerro Verde, alongside $3.8 billion of consolidated cash. Source
  • Dividend of $0.15 declared: The Board declared $0.15 per share, a $0.075 base dividend plus a $0.075 variable dividend, payable February 2, 2026. Source
  • No buybacks in fourth quarter: No shares were repurchased in fourth-quarter 2025, and $3.0 billion remained available under the repurchase program at January 21, 2026. Source
  • Payout framework up to 50%: Up to 50% of available cash flow after planned capital spending and noncontrolling interest distributions may go to shareholder returns, subject to a net debt cap. Source

Growth projects and reserves

  • Bagdad expansion under study: Bagdad expansion studies, updated since late 2023, carry an estimated incremental capital cost of $3.5 billion. Source
  • El Abra mill project in preparation: The El Abra mill project is being prepared for permitting, with economics supported at an incentive copper price of less than $4.00 per pound. Source
  • Kucing Liar expansion studied: Studies identified a low-cost expansion of Kucing Liar to 130,000 metric tons of ore per day, with reserves up by about 20%. Source
  • El Abra reserves include 17.5 billion lb: Preliminary year-end reserves include about 17.5 billion pounds of copper tied to the El Abra mill project, which was previously a resource. Source

Leaching initiatives and PTFI rights

  • Leaching run rate reached 240 million lb: Leaching and technology initiatives reached an annual run rate of about 240 million pounds in late 2025, and are targeted at 300 million pounds in 2026. Source
  • Morenci additive trial: Large-scale testing of an internally developed additive at Morenci is showing encouraging early results. Source
  • PTFI extension talks advancing: Discussions with the Indonesian government on extending PTFI operating rights beyond 2041 have advanced, with an application being prepared. Source

Coming up, as management said on 22 January 2026

  • Bagdad investment decision in 2026: Bagdad studies are being updated ahead of a potential investment decision during 2026. Source
  • Safford studies due in 2026: Pre-feasibility studies in the Safford/Lone Star district are expected to be completed during 2026. Source
  • Dividend payment February 2, 2026: The $0.15 per share dividend is payable February 2, 2026, to holders of record as of January 15, 2026. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Copper production, fourth quarter 2025 Source640 million pounds
Copper sales, fourth quarter 2025 Source709 million pounds
Copper production, year 2025 Source3.4 billion pounds
Copper sales, year 2025 Source3.6 billion pounds
PTFI copper production, year 2025 Source1.0 billion pounds

Risks management discussed

  • Operational: Sales volumes and unit costs depend on operating performance and on the timing of the Grasberg Block Cave restart, currently expected in second-quarter 2026. Source
  • Operational: Production and sales are expected to diverge more than usual until the downstream processing facilities reach normalized rates. Source
  • Regulatory: The El Abra project timing depends on permitting, along with copper market conditions and other factors. Source
  • Financial: During the 2026 ramp-up, part of PTFI cost of sales will be recognized as non-inventoriable idle facility costs. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • On track: Management said key milestones for Blocks 2 and 3, including mud removal and repairs, are progressing on schedule. Source
  • Not stated: The earlier expected submission was fourth-quarter 2025; the current release says submission is expected during 2026.
  • Not stated: The earlier plan was submission in first-quarter 2026; the current release says the first half of 2026.

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.