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Dow Inc.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 29 January 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 1 new. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Net sales fell 9% year-over-year: Net sales were $9.5 billion, down 9% year-over-year, with declines in all operating segments. Sequentially, net sales were down 5%, led by local price and volume declines from normal seasonality. Source
  • Operating loss per share widened: GAAP loss per share was $2.15. Operating EPS was a loss of $0.34, compared with $0.00 a year earlier and a loss of $0.19 in the prior quarter. Source
  • Local price down 8%: Local price was down 8% versus the year-ago period and down 3% sequentially. Price declines were the main driver of the year-over-year fall in operating earnings. Source
  • Cost program delivered over $400 million: In 2025 the company achieved well over half of its more than $6.5 billion in near-term cash and cost support actions, including accelerated delivery of over $400 million of savings from its $1 billion program. Source
  • Significant items totaled $1.81 per share: Operating EPS excludes significant items of $1.81 per share, led by a goodwill impairment for Polyurethanes & Construction Chemicals and non-cash pension settlement charges. Source
  • New Transform to Outperform program: Management described Transform to Outperform as a comprehensive simplification of the operating model, aimed at productivity across every business and function. Source
  • At least $2 billion expected: Management expects Transform to Outperform to provide at least $2 billion in additional near-term earnings, and to help set new competitive standards. Source

“Dow’s self-help measures continue to gain traction and were evident in our fourth quarter results”

Jim Fitterling, Dow chair and CEO

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Earnings Sourcenear-termat least $2 billion in additional near-term earningsNew

What changed from last quarter

  • New: Management introduced Transform to Outperform, described as a simplification of the operating model. It was not named in the prior quarter's release. Source
  • New guidance: Management gave a figure of at least $2 billion in additional near-term earnings from Transform to Outperform. Source

Results and earnings

  • Net sales fell 9% year-over-year: Net sales were $9.5 billion, down 9% year-over-year, with declines in all operating segments. Sequentially, net sales were down 5%, led by local price and volume declines from normal seasonality. Source
  • Operating loss per share widened: GAAP loss per share was $2.15. Operating EPS was a loss of $0.34, compared with $0.00 a year earlier and a loss of $0.19 in the prior quarter. Source
  • Full-year GAAP net loss recorded: For 2025, net sales were $40.0 billion. GAAP net loss was $2.4 billion, against net income of $1.2 billion in 2024. Operating EBIT was $0.4 billion, down from $2.6 billion. Source

Segments and regions

  • Packaging segment sales down 11%: Packaging & Specialty Plastics net sales were $4.7 billion, down 11%. Local price fell 9% on lower downstream polymer prices, and volume fell 2% on lower merchant olefins sales in EMEAI. Source
  • Packaging Op. EBIT down $232 million: Packaging & Specialty Plastics Op. EBIT was $215 million, down $232 million year-over-year, on lower integrated margins and operating rates, partly offset by lower fixed costs. Source
  • Industrial segment swung to a loss: Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure Op. EBIT was a loss of $201 million, against income of $84 million a year earlier. Equity losses reached $117 million, driven by MEG margins at the Kuwait joint ventures. Source
  • Performance Materials Op. EBIT improved: Performance Materials & Coatings net sales were $1.9 billion, down 6%. Op. EBIT was $25 million, against a loss of $9 million a year earlier, primarily on lower fixed costs. Source
  • Regional sales by segment table: Net sales by region in the quarter were U.S. & Canada $3.7 billion, EMEAI $3.0 billion, Asia Pacific $1.8 billion and Latin America $1.0 billion. Source

“Team Dow remains focused on delivering near-term cost savings, navigating an unprecedented industry downturn and our long-standing cultural values of safety and reliability”

Jim Fitterling, Dow chair and CEO

Pricing, volume and margins

  • Local price down 8%: Local price was down 8% versus the year-ago period and down 3% sequentially. Price declines were the main driver of the year-over-year fall in operating earnings. Source
  • Volume down 2% on EMEAI idling: Volume decreased 2% year-over-year, mainly in Packaging & Specialty Plastics, on lower merchant olefins sales in EMEAI after a cracker in the region was idled earlier in the year. Source
  • Sequential margin compression and seasonality: Compared with the prior quarter, Op. EBIT fell $147 million on margin compression and seasonally lower demand, partly offset by lower fixed costs. Source

Costs and cost reduction

  • Cost program delivered over $400 million: In 2025 the company achieved well over half of its more than $6.5 billion in near-term cash and cost support actions, including accelerated delivery of over $400 million of savings from its $1 billion program. Source
  • Cost actions offset part of price declines: Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure Op. EBIT fell $285 million on lower integrated margins, partly offset by tailwinds from the company’s cost reduction actions. Source
  • Lower fixed costs lifted Packaging: Packaging & Specialty Plastics Op. EBIT rose $16 million sequentially, driven by lower fixed costs, partly offset by margin compression. Source

“It aims to deliver step-change productivity across every business and function and growth with our customers.”

Jim Fitterling, Dow chair and CEO

Impairments, pension and significant items

  • Significant items totaled $1.81 per share: Operating EPS excludes significant items of $1.81 per share, led by a goodwill impairment for Polyurethanes & Construction Chemicals and non-cash pension settlement charges. Source
  • Non-cash pension settlement charges: Pension settlement charges of $323 million pretax were recorded as non-cash charges tied to terminating certain pension plans in the United States and United Kingdom. Source
  • Restructuring charges recorded: Pretax significant items included $41 million of 2025 Restructuring Program severance and asset charges and $43 million of implementation costs. Source

Cash flow and shareholder returns

  • Operating cash flow down $513 million: Cash from continuing operations was $298 million, down $513 million year-over-year, primarily on lower earnings. Source
  • Free cash flow negative in quarter: Free cash flow was negative $270 million in the quarter, compared with $44 million a year earlier, after capital expenditures of $568 million. Source
  • Quarterly dividends of $251 million: Returns to shareholders in the quarter were $251 million of dividends. Source
  • Full-year operating cash flow lower: Full-year cash from continuing operations was $1.1 billion, against $2.9 billion in 2024. Full-year dividends were $1.5 billion. Source

Strategy: Transform to Outperform

  • New Transform to Outperform program: Management described Transform to Outperform as a comprehensive simplification of the operating model, aimed at productivity across every business and function. Source
  • At least $2 billion expected: Management expects Transform to Outperform to provide at least $2 billion in additional near-term earnings, and to help set new competitive standards. Source
  • Simpler processes and fewer complexities: The program is described as reducing complexity, adopting the best available technologies and streamlining end-to-end processes to enable consistent growth. Source
  • Efficiency and service gains targeted: Management said the changes are intended to help the company work more efficiently, serve customers better and deliver improved shareholder returns. Source

Demand by end market

  • Photovoltaics demand lower: Packaging & Specialty Plastics sales also fell on lower demand in photovoltaics, partly offset by higher demand for wire & cable applications. Source
  • Polyurethanes volumes lower: Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure volume fell 1% year-over-year, mainly on lower volumes in Polyurethanes & Construction Chemicals. Source
  • Coatings monomers hit by turnaround: Coatings & Performance Monomers sales fell on lower prices, led by acrylic monomers, and lower supply from a planned turnaround at the Deer Park methacrylates facility. Source

Coming up, as management said on 29 January 2026

  • Transform productivity gains expected: Management expects Transform to Outperform to bring step-change productivity gains and consistent growth, with no dated milestones given. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Volume change, year-over-year Source-2%

Risks management discussed

  • Operational: Lower operating rates and price declines were cited as the drivers of the year-over-year fall in Op. EBIT. Source
  • External: Lower downstream polymer prices, led by EMEAI, were cited as a driver of the sequential decline in Packaging & Specialty Plastics net sales. Source
  • Financial: Cash from operations fell sequentially after advance payments received in the prior quarter, a timing effect management noted. Source
  • Demand: Management described the company as navigating an unprecedented industry downturn in the current period. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Ahead: Management said the company accelerated delivery of more than $400 million in cost savings from its $1 billion program. Source
  • Not stated: Management said it achieved well over half of the more than $6.5 billion in near-term cash and cost support actions in 2025. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.