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Carrier Global Corp.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 5 February 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 9 new. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Sales fell 6% on lower organic volume: Net sales were $4,837 million, down 6% from $5,148 million. Organic sales fell 9%, partly offset by a 3% currency tailwind from translation. Source
  • Operating profit fell 87%: GAAP operating profit was $101 million, down 87%, reflecting last year's gain on the commercial refrigeration sale. Commercial HVAC and aftermarket strength and operating efficiencies partly offset the decline. Source
  • Adjusted operating profit fell 33%: Adjusted operating profit was $455 million, down 33%, mainly on lower volume in the Americas residential business. Profit grew in Climate Solutions Europe and Transportation, partly offsetting that. Source
  • Americas residential volume fell sharply: Climate Solutions Americas sales fell 17% to $1,935 million and segment margin fell to 8.7% from 18.6%. Commercial was up double digits, while residential fell 38% and light commercial 20%. Source
  • Full-year sales down 3%: Full-year sales were $21.75 billion, down 3% from 2024, with organic sales down 1%. Management said global commercial HVAC and aftermarket each grew double digits, excluding NORESCO. Source
  • Commercial HVAC orders up nearly 50%: Fourth-quarter commercial HVAC orders rose nearly 50%, driven by key data center wins, according to the chairman and CEO. Source
  • About $3.7 billion returned to shareholders: Shareholder returns were about $3.7 billion for the year: about $0.8 billion in dividends and about $2.9 billion in share repurchases. Source

“We continue to drive outsized growth in commercial HVAC 1 with Q4 orders up nearly 50% driven by key data center wins and are well positioned to drive our sixth consecutive year of double-digit growth in this business in 2026.”

Chairman & CEO David Gitlin

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Net sales SourceFull year 2026~$22 billionNew
Organic sales growth SourceFull year 2026flat to up low-single-digitNew
Reported sales growth SourceFull year 2026flat to up low-single-digitNew
Currency and net acquisitions/divestitures SourceFull year 2026FX +1%; net acquisitions/divestitures (1%)New
Adjusted operating profit SourceFull year 2026~$3.4 billionNew
Adjusted EPS SourceFull year 2026~$2.80New
Free cash flow SourceFull year 2026~$2 billionNew
Share repurchases SourceFull year 2026~$1.5 billionNew
Riello divestiture effect SourceYear-over-year, 2026~$350 million sales; ~$0.03 adjusted EPSNew
Commercial HVAC and aftermarket growth SourceFull year 2026continued double-digit growth

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: First full-year 2026 guidance is given in this release; the prior release covered full-year 2025. Source
  • New: The 2026 guidance assumes the Riello divestiture concludes by the end of the first quarter of 2026. Source

Fourth quarter results

  • Sales fell 6% on lower organic volume: Net sales were $4,837 million, down 6% from $5,148 million. Organic sales fell 9%, partly offset by a 3% currency tailwind from translation. Source
  • Operating profit fell 87%: GAAP operating profit was $101 million, down 87%, reflecting last year's gain on the commercial refrigeration sale. Commercial HVAC and aftermarket strength and operating efficiencies partly offset the decline. Source
  • Adjusted operating profit fell 33%: Adjusted operating profit was $455 million, down 33%, mainly on lower volume in the Americas residential business. Profit grew in Climate Solutions Europe and Transportation, partly offsetting that. Source
  • Adjusted EPS $0.34 on lower profit: Diluted EPS from continuing operations was $0.03 and adjusted EPS was $0.34, against $0.54 a year earlier. Net earnings from continuing operations were $28 million and adjusted net earnings $285 million. Source

Segment results

  • Americas residential volume fell sharply: Climate Solutions Americas sales fell 17% to $1,935 million and segment margin fell to 8.7% from 18.6%. Commercial was up double digits, while residential fell 38% and light commercial 20%. Source
  • Europe margin rose on cost synergies: Climate Solutions Europe sales rose 6% to $1,332 million, with organic sales down 2% and currency adding 8%. Segment margin rose to 9.0% on productivity, including cost synergies. Source
  • Asia Pacific sales fell on China: Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa sales fell 9% to $798 million, with organic sales down 9%. Segment margin rose 100 basis points to 11.9% on productivity. Source
  • Transportation sales up 13% on containers: Climate Solutions Transportation sales rose 13% to $772 million, with organic sales up 10%. Segment margin was 14.5%, up 30 basis points. Source

“Our aftermarke t 1 playbook also continues to yield results, reflected in our fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth.”

Chairman & CEO David Gitlin

Full-year 2025 results

  • Full-year sales down 3%: Full-year sales were $21.75 billion, down 3% from 2024, with organic sales down 1%. Management said global commercial HVAC and aftermarket each grew double digits, excluding NORESCO. Source
  • Full-year adjusted EPS $2.59: GAAP EPS from continuing operations was $1.69 for 2025 and adjusted EPS was $2.59. Diluted shares averaged 862.4 million, down from 911.7 million in 2024. Source
  • Full-year operating margin 10.0%: Full-year GAAP operating margin was 10.0% and adjusted operating margin 15.1%, against an adjusted margin of 15.8% in 2024. Source

Demand and order book

  • Commercial HVAC orders up nearly 50%: Fourth-quarter commercial HVAC orders rose nearly 50%, driven by key data center wins, according to the chairman and CEO. Source
  • Distributor destocking hit Americas: Fourth-quarter operating profit was also affected by weaker residential end-markets and distributor destocking in the Americas. Source
  • Long-cycle backlog being built: Management said it is building backlog in its long-cycle businesses to offset residential market challenges. Source

“We continue to control the controllables, reducing discretionary costs and building backlog in our long-cycle businesses to mitigate residential market challenges,”

Chairman & CEO David Gitlin

Costs and margins

  • Selling and admin costs fell: Selling, general and administrative expense was $747 million in the fourth quarter, against $803 million a year earlier. Full-year SG&A was $3,092 million, against $3,197 million. Source
  • Restructuring and amortization charges rose: Restructuring costs were $73 million in the quarter, against $11 million a year earlier, and $178 million for the year. Amortization of acquired intangibles was $220 million in the quarter. Source
  • Full-year adjusted operating profit fell: Full-year adjusted operating profit was $3,292 million, against $3,542 million in 2024. Source

Cash flow and shareholder returns

  • Fourth-quarter free cash flow $909 million: Operating cash flow was $1,040 million and capital expenditure $131 million, giving free cash flow of $909 million, against negative $89 million a year earlier. Source
  • Full-year free cash flow $2.1 billion: Full-year free cash flow was $2,121 million, against $30 million in 2024, and operating cash flow was $2,513 million. Source
  • About $3.7 billion returned to shareholders: Shareholder returns were about $3.7 billion for the year: about $0.8 billion in dividends and about $2.9 billion in share repurchases. Source
  • Year-end share count fell: Shares outstanding were 836.1 million at year-end, down from 878.3 million. Source
  • Net debt rose to $10.3 billion: Net debt was $10,278 million at year-end, up from $8,393 million, with cash and cash equivalents of $1,555 million. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Commercial HVAC orders growth, Q4 Sourceup nearly 50%
Container sales growth, Q4 Sourcenearly 50%
Residential volume, Climate Solutions Americas, Q4 Sourcedown 38%
Global commercial HVAC and aftermarket growth, 2025 Sourceup double-digits

Risks management discussed

  • Demand: Management expects residential and light commercial declines to continue in 2026, particularly in the Americas. Source
  • Demand: Residential end-markets and distributor destocking in the Americas weighed on fourth-quarter operating profit. Source
  • Regulatory: Closing of the Riello divestiture depends on regulatory approvals. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Not stated: The earlier release cited previously announced cost reduction actions as supporting earnings growth in 2026.

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.