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Peabody Energy Corp.: Q4 FY2025 earnings call

What management said about Q4 FY2025, from the documents filed with the SEC on 5 February 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 23 new. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Fourth-quarter earnings lower than 2024: Fourth-quarter net income attributable to common stockholders was $10.4 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, against $30.6 million, or $0.25, a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $118.1 million, against $176.7 million. Source
  • Most volume and cost targets met: Seven of eight segment volume and cost metrics met or exceeded the original full-year 2025 guidance, according to the company. Source
  • Centurion longwall starts early: Longwall cutting at Centurion was expected to begin the week of the release, two months ahead of schedule, marking a milestone in the company's metallurgical segment. Source
  • Metallurgical realization set to rise: Segment-wide metallurgical realizations are expected to rise from about 70 percent of benchmark in 2025 to 80 percent in 2026, with potential to exceed that as Centurion reaches full scale. Source
  • Higher coal burn lifted U.S. volumes: Higher natural gas prices and AI and data-center demand for dispatchable power increased coal plant utilization, led by 85 million tons from Powder River Basin mines. Source
  • Early oxide concentration results: Analysis to date of targeted PRB feedstocks indicates critical mineral oxide concentrations of 428 to 1,669 ppm on a dry-ash basis. The company describes the initiative as in early stages. Source

“Peabody’s continued strong operational performance in the fourth quarter capped an excellent year with record safety and environmental results, increased volumes and focused cost control,”

Peabody President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Grech

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Seaborne Thermal total volume Source2026 full year12.0 - 13.0 million short tonsNew
Seaborne Thermal average cost Source2026 full year$47.50 - $52.50 per short tonNew
Seaborne Thermal export volume Source2026 full year7.5 - 8.5 million short tonsNew
Seaborne Metallurgical volume Source2026 full year10.3 - 11.3 million short tonsNew
Seaborne Metallurgical average cost Source2026 full year$108.00 - $118.00 per short tonNew
PRB volume Source2026 full year82.0 - 88.0 million short tonsNew
PRB average cost Source2026 full year$11.25 - $11.75 per short tonNew
Other U.S. Thermal volume Source2026 full year13.2 - 14.2 million short tonsNew
Other U.S. Thermal average cost Source2026 full year$45.00 - $49.00 per short tonNew
Selling and administrative expenses Source2026 full year$115 millionNew
Total capital expenditures Source2026 full year$340 millionNew
ARO cash spend Source2026 full year$65 millionNew
Metallurgical price realization Source2026 full yearapproximately 80 percent of premium hard-coking coal indexNew
Centurion production Source20263.5 million tonsNew
Centurion annual run rate Sourceby 20284.7 million tonsNew
Seaborne Thermal volume Sourcefirst quarter 20262.8 million tons, including 1.7 million export tonsNew
Seaborne Thermal cost Sourcefirst quarter 2026$51-$56 per tonNew
Seaborne Metallurgical volume Sourcefirst quarter 20262.4 million tons at about 75 percent of premium indexNew
Seaborne Metallurgical cost Sourcefirst quarter 2026$117-$122 per tonNew
PRB volume Sourcefirst quarter 2026approximately 21 million tons at $13.40 per tonNew
PRB cost Sourcefirst quarter 2026$11.75-$12.25 per tonNew
Other U.S. Thermal volume Sourcefirst quarter 2026approximately 3.3 million tons at $54.50 per tonNew
Other U.S. Thermal cost Sourcefirst quarter 2026$45-$49 per tonNew

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: Full-year 2026 segment volume, cost and capital targets appear in this release; the prior release gave 2025 full-year targets. Source
  • New: Centurion net present value is now assessed at $2.1 billion, at $225 per tonne benchmark pricing, above the late 2024 estimate. Source
  • New: Chief Executive Jim Grech was appointed Chair of the National Coal Council, which is not described in the prior release. Source
  • New: The company reported advancing a power generation project from coal mine gas at Centurion and development of 3 GW of renewable energy on former mined lands in the Midwest. Source

Full-year and fourth-quarter results

  • Fourth-quarter earnings lower than 2024: Fourth-quarter net income attributable to common stockholders was $10.4 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, against $30.6 million, or $0.25, a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $118.1 million, against $176.7 million. Source
  • Full-year revenue lower on seaborne prices: Full-year revenue was $3,861.5 million against $4,236.7 million, with the company citing sharply lower seaborne coal prices. Full-year net loss attributable to common stockholders was $(52.9) million, or $(0.43) per diluted share. Source
  • Full-year Adjusted EBITDA lower than 2024: Full-year Adjusted EBITDA was $454.9 million, against $871.7 million in 2024, with the company citing lower seaborne prices. Source
  • Most volume and cost targets met: Seven of eight segment volume and cost metrics met or exceeded the original full-year 2025 guidance, according to the company. Source

Segment volumes, prices and costs

  • Seaborne Thermal margin rose on quarter: Seaborne Thermal sold 3.3 million tons in the quarter at an average export price of $81.80 per ton, up 7 percent. Adjusted EBITDA was $63.5 million, a 31 percent margin. Source
  • Seaborne Metallurgical volume up 19 percent: Seaborne Metallurgical sold 2.5 million tons, up 19 percent on the prior quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $24.6 million, and costs per ton were $112.94. Source
  • PRB shipments higher for the year: PRB shipped 22.3 million tons in the quarter and 84.5 million for the year, 4.9 million tons above 2024. PRB Adjusted EBITDA was $44.8 million in the quarter and $175.8 million for 2025. Source
  • Other U.S. Thermal revenue above expectations: Other U.S. Thermal revenue per ton came in above expectations, and costs per ton were modestly lower on the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $18.1 million, against $6.9 million in the third quarter. Source

“With sustained higher met coal realizations and lower capital expenditures, Peabody will be better positioned to return additional free cash flow to shareholders, consistent with our established return framework.”

Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Mark Spurbeck

Centurion metallurgical ramp

  • Centurion longwall starts early: Longwall cutting at Centurion was expected to begin the week of the release, two months ahead of schedule, marking a milestone in the company's metallurgical segment. Source
  • Centurion cost and mine life: Centurion is expected to average 4.7 million tons a year at estimated costs of $105 per ton in 2024 dollars, over a mine life of 25 years or more. Source
  • Centurion coal priced at full benchmark: The company said Centurion product quality and proximity to Asian demand centres result in full benchmark premium hard coking coal pricing. Source
  • Metallurgical realization set to rise: Segment-wide metallurgical realizations are expected to rise from about 70 percent of benchmark in 2025 to 80 percent in 2026, with potential to exceed that as Centurion reaches full scale. Source

U.S. thermal demand and policy

  • Higher coal burn lifted U.S. volumes: Higher natural gas prices and AI and data-center demand for dispatchable power increased coal plant utilization, led by 85 million tons from Powder River Basin mines. Source
  • Coal Council agenda set: The National Coal Council's key priority is advising the administration on expanding coal-fueled generation, building new coal plants and exporting more U.S. coal. Source
  • 2026 U.S. thermal volumes priced at year-end: The 2026 PRB and Other U.S. Thermal volumes reflect volumes priced at December 31, 2025, with PRB weighted average quality of about 8,725 BTU. Source

“With a low cost structure, premium price realizations and a long mine life, Centurion immediately vaults to the top of Peabody’s coal operations and establishes a multi-decade foundation for shareholder value creation,”

Peabody President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Grech

Rare earths and critical minerals

  • Early oxide concentration results: Analysis to date of targeted PRB feedstocks indicates critical mineral oxide concentrations of 428 to 1,669 ppm on a dry-ash basis. The company describes the initiative as in early stages. Source
  • Commercial potential under evaluation: Management said it is encouraged by progress to date and has expanded the scope of work to evaluate commercial potential of the rare earth initiative. Source

Cash, capital and shareholder returns

  • Operating cash flow and year-end cash: Operating cash flow from continuing operations was $336 million for 2025. Cash and cash equivalents were $575.3 million at December 31, 2025, against $700.4 million a year earlier. Source
  • Centurion investment near $750 million: The company said it invested about $750 million in recent years to develop and expand Centurion, which it expects to raise its leverage to the premium hard coking coal segment. Source
  • Quarterly dividend declared: The board declared a $0.075 per share dividend on February 5, 2026, payable March 10, 2026 to holders of record on February 23, 2026. Source

2026 priorities and investment thesis

  • Safe operations listed first: The first 2026 priority listed is safe, reliable and efficient operations across the company, followed by full operational performance at Centurion. Source
  • Free cash flow and balance sheet priority: A further 2026 priority is preserving balance sheet strength while increasing free cash flow to support shareholder returns. Source
  • Investment thesis rests on portfolio: Management described its investment thesis as a strengthened portfolio, a disciplined capital allocation framework and growing scope across steelmaking coal and U.S. energy markets. Source

Coming up, as management said on 5 February 2026

  • First-quarter longwall moves planned: Longwall moves are planned during the first quarter of 2026 at the Metropolitan and Shoal Creek mines. Source
  • Realization may exceed 80 percent: Metallurgical realizations are expected to have potential to exceed 80 percent of benchmark as Centurion reaches full scale. Source
  • Return to free cash flow generation: In 2026 the company is focused on ramping up Centurion production and returning to free cash flow generation. Source
  • Rare earth work with government agencies: The company is continuing collaboration with government agencies and departments aimed at accelerating timelines to production for rare earth work. Source
  • Rare earth flowsheets with partners: Flowsheets are being developed with technology partners to support techno-economic assessments and production of rare earth products. Source

Risks management discussed

  • Operational: Early wet summer weather in Queensland affected the Seaborne Metallurgical quarter, though costs were in line with targets. Source
  • Operational: First-quarter Seaborne Thermal sales volume is expected to be lower because of mine sequencing at Wilpinjong. Source
  • External: Part of first-quarter Seaborne Thermal volume is unpriced, leaving those tons exposed to future market pricing. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Ahead: Fourth-quarter Seaborne Thermal volume was 3.3 million tons, against the 3.2 million tons expected in the prior release. Source
  • Ahead: Seaborne Thermal costs were $43.43 per ton, against the $45 to $48 per ton anticipated in the prior release. Source
  • On track: PRB costs were in line with expectations, against the $11.00 to $11.50 per ton anticipated in the prior release. Source
  • Ahead: Other U.S. Thermal shipped 3.7 million tons, against the 3.6 million tons expected in the prior release. Source
  • Ahead: The prior release said Centurion remained on schedule for the accelerated February 2026 longwall start; this release says the start is two months ahead of original target.

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.