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Alaska Air Group, Inc.: Q3 FY2026 earnings call

What management said about Q3 FY2026, from the documents filed with the SEC on 20 October 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 6 new. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Revenue rose 14% on modest capacity: Total operating revenue reached $4.3 billion, up 14%, on capacity growth of 2.4%. Unit revenue rose nearly 12%. Source
  • Adjusted EPS of $0.36 excluding tax items: Adjusted earnings per share excluding certain tax impacts were $0.36. The GAAP net loss was $147 million, or $1.32 per share. Source
  • Diversified revenue reached 54% of total: Revenue from outside the main cabin is now 54% of total revenue, which management cites as progress on its strategic initiatives. Source
  • Fuel cost per gallon up 57%: Fuel cost per gallon was $3.94, against $2.51 a year earlier. Aircraft fuel expense rose to $1,214 million from $761 million. Source
  • Adjusted pretax margin 1.1%: Adjusted pretax margin was 1.1%, against 4.6% in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted net loss was $35 million. Source
  • Demand healthy into the fourth quarter: Management said demand remains healthy, with commercial momentum continuing into the fourth quarter. Source

“While we’re not satisfied with this quarter’s result or the $1.8 billion fuel headwind this year”

Alaska Air Group CEO Ben Minicucci

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Capacity (ASMs) SourceFourth quarter 2026Up 1% to 1.5% year-over-yearNew
RASM (unit revenue) SourceFourth quarter 2026Up low double-digits year-over-yearNew
Economic fuel cost per gallon SourceFourth quarter 2026$4.65 to $4.85New
Adjusted earnings (loss) per share SourceFourth quarter 2026($2.50) to ($2.00)New
Adjusted earnings (loss) per share SourceFull year 2026($5.50) to ($5.00)New
Tax rate SourceFourth quarter 2026Approximately 20%
Non-operating expense and shares outstanding SourceFourth quarter 2026Approximately $70 million; approximately 112.5 million sharesNew

What changed from last quarter

  • New guidance: Fourth quarter 2026 guidance was issued for capacity, unit revenue, non-fuel unit costs, fuel cost per gallon and adjusted loss per share. Source
  • New guidance: A full-year 2026 adjusted loss per share range was given for the first time in this release, along with the $1.8 billion fuel expense above plan. Source
  • New: The company announced intent to join the Atlantic and Pacific Joint International Businesses with oneworld and global partners. Source
  • New: Aurora and Leihōkū were unveiled as premium guest experiences, featured on Alaska's 787 and new 737-10 MAX and on Hawaiian's A330. Source
  • New: From October, Atmos Rewards members can choose the earning basis for points and status points, applying to flights from January 1, 2027. Source
  • New: Amaresh Siva was named Chief Information Technology Officer, joining from CVS Health, and will serve on the Executive Committee. Source

Results and growth drivers

  • Revenue rose 14% on modest capacity: Total operating revenue reached $4.3 billion, up 14%, on capacity growth of 2.4%. Unit revenue rose nearly 12%. Source
  • Adjusted EPS of $0.36 excluding tax items: Adjusted earnings per share excluding certain tax impacts were $0.36. The GAAP net loss was $147 million, or $1.32 per share. Source
  • Tax catch-up cut adjusted EPS $0.67: A cumulative catch-up on first-half loss tax benefits, from a lower estimated annual tax rate, reduced adjusted EPS by $0.67. The adjusted tax rate was 18.4%. Source
  • Yield gained through the quarter: Yield for the quarter rose 13.4% to 18.73 cents. September yield rose about 17% year-over-year. Source

Segments and regions

  • Hawaiʻi headwind still weighed on revenue: Hawaiʻi headwinds, growth-market investment and rapid international expansion were named as pressures on unit revenue this quarter. Source
  • New domestic routes added across network: New domestic routes include Portland to Steamboat Springs, San Diego to Loreto in Mexico, and Paine Field to San Jose, with more Paine Field service. Source

“we are confident in our ability to execute on the things we can control, including increasing the spread between unit revenue and unit costs excluding fuel”

Alaska Air Group CEO Ben Minicucci

Products and customers

  • Diversified revenue reached 54% of total: Revenue from outside the main cabin is now 54% of total revenue, which management cites as progress on its strategic initiatives. Source
  • Premium and loyalty revenue grew: Premium revenue rose about 25% and was more than 36% of total revenue. Loyalty program cash remuneration rose 21%. Source

Costs

  • Unit costs excluding fuel rose 4.4%: CASMex rose 4.4% on capacity growth of 2.4%, against a prior expectation of low to mid single-digit growth. Source
  • Fuel cost per gallon up 57%: Fuel cost per gallon was $3.94, against $2.51 a year earlier. Aircraft fuel expense rose to $1,214 million from $761 million. Source

Margins and pricing

  • GAAP pretax margin 0.4% in quarter: GAAP pretax margin was 0.4% and the GAAP net loss was $147 million, or $1.32 per share. Source
  • Adjusted pretax margin 1.1%: Adjusted pretax margin was 1.1%, against 4.6% in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted net loss was $35 million. Source
  • Passenger unit revenue rose 10.9%: Passenger unit revenue rose to 15.52 cents from 14.00 cents, a 10.9% increase year-over-year. Source

Demand and the order book

  • Demand healthy into the fourth quarter: Management said demand remains healthy, with commercial momentum continuing into the fourth quarter. Source
  • Unit revenue to improve sequentially in Q4: Fourth quarter unit revenue is expected to improve sequentially on a gross basis, supported by continued yield. Source
  • Load factor fell to 82.8%: Load factor was 82.8%, down 2.0 points. Revenue passengers fell 1.1% to 15,706 thousand. Source

Capital, cash and returns to shareholders

  • Operating cash flow of $755 million: Operating cash flow was $755 million for the first nine months of 2026, and $149 million in the third quarter. Source
  • Liquidity held at $3.3 billion: Available liquidity of $3.3 billion included unrestricted cash, marketable securities and undrawn credit facilities. The prior release cited $3.8 billion. Source
  • Debt-to-capitalization rose to 66%: Debt-to-capitalization including leases was 66%, against 59% at December 31, 2025. Prior periods were recast for the revised ratio definition. Source
  • Adjusted net debt to EBITDAR 5.5x: Adjusted net debt to EBITDAR was 5.5 times, against 2.9 times at December 31, 2025. Source

Strategy and investment

  • Atmos Rewards enhancements and partnerships: Atmos Rewards gained four new communities and additional program partnerships, with expanded card offerings. Source
  • Premium and international emphasis: The stated strategy is growing premium, international, cargo and Atmos Rewards, and investing in the guest experience. Source

Recognition and awards

  • Industry awards for cabin and service: Alaska Airlines was recognized as the #1 Cleanest Airline in North America and the #2 Best Regional Airline in North America by Skytrax. Source
  • APEX Five Star award for both airlines: Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines received the 2026 APEX Five Star Major Airline Award. Source
  • Charu Jain named Time tech executive: SVP of Merchandising and Innovation Charu Jain was recognized as one of Time's 2026 Tech and Data Executives of the Year. Source

Coming up, as management said on 20 October 2026

  • Seattle nonstop routes start spring 2027: New nonstop Seattle service to Athens, Paris, Osaka and Papeete is due to begin in spring 2027. Source
  • Premium Reserve debuts in 2028: Premium Reserve, a premium economy product, is set to debut in 2028 on Alaska's 787-9, 787-10 and select 737-10 MAX aircraft and on Hawaiian's A330 fleet. Source
  • Atmos debit card in early 2027: An Atmos debit card is planned for launch in early 2027, as part of expanded Atmos Rewards card offerings. Source
  • $75 million adjustment in full-year results: The $75 million tax adjustment stays in year-to-date adjusted earnings and will be included in full-year 2026 adjusted earnings results. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Revenue passengers Source15,706 thousand, down 1.1%
ASMs (capacity) Source25,031 million, up 2.4%
Yield Source18.73¢, up 13.4%
RASM (revenue per ASM) Source17.21¢, up 11.7%
Fuel cost per gallon Source$3.94, up 57.0%
Fuel gallons Source308 million, up 1.7%
Operating fleet Source424 aircraft, up 18

Risks management discussed

  • External: Management expects elevated fuel costs to remain a significant headwind to near-term profitability. Source
  • Financial: The lower annual tax rate reduced the expected tax benefit on first-half losses by $75 million, which lowered adjusted EPS this quarter. Source
  • Operational: Non-fuel unit costs are expected to rise in the mid-single digits in the fourth quarter as capacity growth slows. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Not stated: Prior expectation for capacity was up 2% to 3%. Actual capacity rose 2.4%. Source
  • Not stated: Prior expectation for economic fuel cost was $3.75 per gallon. Actual was $3.94 per gallon. Source
  • Not stated: The third quarter adjusted effective tax rate was 18.4%, against the original guidance assumption of about 35%. Source
  • Not stated: The prior release expected a meaningful inflection in financial performance starting in the third quarter. This release does not state whether it occurred.

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.