greeksoup/ stock research

American Electric Power Co. Inc.: Q2 FY2026 earnings call

What management said about Q2 FY2026, from the documents filed with the SEC on 30 July 2026: press release. Guidance figures: 3 raised, 2 new, 5 kept. The quarter’s numbers.

Key takeaways

  • Operating EPS below prior year: Operating earnings were $742 million, or $1.36 per share, against $766 million or $1.43 in second quarter 2025. GAAP earnings were $713 million, or $1.31 per share, against $1,226 million or $2.29. Source
  • Full-year operating guidance raised: Full-year 2026 operating EPS guidance rose to $6.25 to $6.55, reflecting first-half performance and expected results for the rest of the year. Source
  • Cost offsets up to $16 billion: AEP identified up to $16 billion in expected cost offsets for residential customers in vertically integrated utilities, tied to fully executed take-or-pay agreements. Source
  • Growth concentrated in Texas: Six GW of the 69 GW total was signed in the second quarter, primarily in Texas. Agreements include hyperscalers, data centers and industrials. Source
  • 13 GW of gas turbines secured: Three GW of gas-fired turbine capacity was added in the quarter, bringing total secured capacity to about 13 GW through 2031. Source
  • $78 billion plan reaffirmed: The five-year capital plan for 2026 through 2030 remains $78 billion, which management said supports the reaffirmed operating earnings growth rate. Source

“I am highly confident in our robust business performance - so much so that we are raising 2026 full-year guidance to $6.25 to $6.55 per share”

Bill Fehrman, AEP chairman, president and chief executive officer

Guidance

AreaPeriodFigureAgainst last quarter
Operating EPS Sourcefull year 2026$6.25 to $6.55 per shareRaised from $6.15 to $6.45 per share
GAAP EPS estimate Sourcefull year 2026$6.16 to $6.46 per shareRaised from $6.12 to $6.42 per share
Operating EPS growth rate Sourcethrough 20307% to 9% annual growthKept
Operating EPS CAGR Sourcethrough 2030, based on 2025 guidance midpointgreater than 9%Kept
Capital plan Source2026 through 2030$78 billionKept
Incremental capital investment Sourcenot statedmore than $10 billionKept
Residential cost offsets Sourcenot statedup to $16 billionKept
DOE customer benefits Sourceover the life of the loans and grantsnearly $1.4 billion
Contracted load growth Sourcethrough 203069 GWRaised from 63 GW
Secured gas-fired turbine capacity Sourcefor potential deployment through 2031approximately 13 GWNew
Additional turbine capacity under evaluation Sourcethrough 2035up to 10 GWNew

What changed from last quarter

  • Guidance raised: Full-year 2026 operating EPS range raised to $6.25 to $6.55 from $6.15 to $6.45. Source
  • Guidance raised: Contracted load growth through 2030 raised to 69 GW from 63 GW. Source
  • New: About 13 GW of gas-fired turbine capacity is now secured, with three GW added in the second quarter. Source
  • Guidance kept: The 7% to 9% annual operating earnings growth rate through 2030 was reaffirmed. Source

Second-quarter earnings and guidance

  • Operating EPS below prior year: Operating earnings were $742 million, or $1.36 per share, against $766 million or $1.43 in second quarter 2025. GAAP earnings were $713 million, or $1.31 per share, against $1,226 million or $2.29. Source
  • Full-year operating guidance raised: Full-year 2026 operating EPS guidance rose to $6.25 to $6.55, reflecting first-half performance and expected results for the rest of the year. Source
  • Year-to-date operating EPS slightly higher: First-half operating EPS was $3.01 against $2.98, while GAAP EPS was $2.92 against $3.80. Revenue rose to $11,465 million from $10,550 million. Source
  • Management cites lower earnings causes: Management said operating earnings are below last year at this stage because of the 2025 transmission minority interest sale and the timing of tax-related items. Source

Affordability and regulatory outcomes

  • Cost offsets up to $16 billion: AEP identified up to $16 billion in expected cost offsets for residential customers in vertically integrated utilities, tied to fully executed take-or-pay agreements. Source
  • AEP Texas DOE loan: AEP Texas secured a DOE loan of up to $3.3 billion for nearly 100 transmission projects, expected to save customers $685 million in interest over the loan life. Source
  • DOE funding totals about $1.4 billion: AEP holds about $5 billion of DOE loans, with nearly $1 billion of projected interest savings, plus almost $400 million of grants. Source
  • Ohio rate decrease and Virginia filing: A distribution base rate decrease for Ohio customers was approved. Appalachian Power completed a $1.4 billion securitization enabling its lowest Virginia base rate request in nearly 30 years. Source
  • Large load tariffs in five states: Virginia approved a large load tariff, bringing approved states to five, with three more state filings pending approval. Source

“As electricity demand accelerates, we have seen firsthand how growth can lower costs and improve affordability for existing customers”

Bill Fehrman, AEP chairman, president and chief executive officer

Load growth and retail sales

  • Growth concentrated in Texas: Six GW of the 69 GW total was signed in the second quarter, primarily in Texas. Agreements include hyperscalers, data centers and industrials. Source
  • Commercial retail sales up: Commercial retail sales rose 14.9% in vertically integrated utilities and 17.4% in transmission and distribution utilities in the quarter. Source
  • Industrial and residential sales mixed: T&D industrial retail sales rose 15.0% and residential fell 2.9%. Vertically integrated industrial sales were flat at (0.1)%. Source
  • Year-to-date retail sales higher: Six-month retail sales rose 2.8% in vertically integrated utilities and 11.7% in T&D utilities, while vertically integrated wholesale sales fell 13.8%. Source
  • T&D wholesale sales decline: T&D wholesale sales fell 44.8% in the quarter, mainly reflecting Ohio’s contractually obligated OVEC purchases sold into PJM. Source

Generation capacity build-out

  • 13 GW of gas turbines secured: Three GW of gas-fired turbine capacity was added in the quarter, bringing total secured capacity to about 13 GW through 2031. Source
  • Up to 10 GW under evaluation: A further 10 GW of turbine capacity through 2035 is under evaluation. Management said this gives visibility and flexibility in generation planning. Source
  • Oklahoma generation addition approved: Approval was reported to add 1.3 GW of generation resources for Oklahoma customers during the second quarter. Source
  • About 33,000 MW of capacity: The company reported approximately 33,000 megawatts of owned and contracted generating capacity, up from about 32,000 in the first-quarter release. Source

“AEP is demonstrating the value of our scale, industry expertise and disciplined focus on execution to benefit our customers”

Bill Fehrman, AEP chairman, president and chief executive officer

Capital plan and growth targets

  • $78 billion plan reaffirmed: The five-year capital plan for 2026 through 2030 remains $78 billion, which management said supports the reaffirmed operating earnings growth rate. Source
  • Growth rate and CAGR targets kept: Operating EPS growth of 7% to 9% through 2030 was reaffirmed, with an expected CAGR above 9% based on the 2025 guidance midpoint. Source

Segment operating earnings

  • Vertically integrated utilities higher: Operating earnings were $302 million against $297 million, and $766 million year to date against $647 million. Source
  • Transmission and distribution utilities higher: T&D utilities operating earnings were $239 million against $224 million, and $476 million year to date against $416 million. Source
  • Transmission Holdco lower year to date: Transmission Holdco operating earnings were $225 million in the quarter and $434 million year to date, against $459 million a year earlier. Source
  • Generation and All Other results: Generation & Marketing operating earnings were $91 million against $92 million. All Other operating loss was $115 million against $71 million. Source

Earnings adjustments and reconciliation

  • Second-quarter adjustments summarized: Operating earnings exceeded GAAP earnings by $29 million, or $0.05 per share, including $23 million for wholesale customer contract agreements and $22 million for the Unified Tracker Mechanism disallowance. Source
  • Commodity hedging adjustment excluded: Mark-to-market impact of commodity hedging was removed from generation and marketing earnings, an $8 million adjustment or $0.02 per share. Source
  • 2026 GAAP-to-operating EPS bridge: The 2026 bridge from GAAP to operating EPS includes a WVPSC order item of (0.07), Pirkey partial disallowance of 0.06, and Unified Tracker partial disallowance of 0.04. Source
  • 2025 FERC NOLC charge excluded: Second-quarter 2025 GAAP earnings included a $480 million impact from the FERC NOLC Order for 2021 to 2024, excluded from that quarter's operating earnings. Source

Coming up, as management said on 30 July 2026

  • Up to 10 GW turbine capacity under evaluation: Management is evaluating up to 10 GW of additional turbine capacity through 2035, with no decision date stated. Source
  • Three state large load filings pending: Three additional state large load tariff filings are pending approval, after Virginia's approval brought approved states to five. Source

Figures management reported

FigureReported
Capital plan Source$78 billion, 2026 through 2030
Load growth Source69 GW contracted through 2030
EPS growth target Source7% to 9% annual through 2030; CAGR greater than 9%
Rate cases SourceOhio distribution base rate decrease approved; Virginia base rate request lowest increase in nearly 30 years

Risks management discussed

  • Operational: Management said new generation is required to meet customer energy needs, and the company has secured turbine capacity early to address that. Source
  • Regulatory: A partial disallowance of AEP Texas Unified Tracker Mechanism costs is treated as probable, with an estimated $22 million impact in the quarter. Source
  • Regulatory: Operating earnings exclude a WVPSC order related to a 2024 surcharge update, shown as a (0.07) per share item in the 2026 bridge. Source
  • Financial: A probable liability is recorded for SWEPCo wholesale customer agreements, expected to produce credits, and talks with one remaining customer continue. Source
  • Financial: Management cited the timing of tax-related items as one reason operating earnings trail last year at this stage. Source

Earlier plans management reported on

  • Not stated: The growth rate was reaffirmed in the quarter. Source
  • Not stated: Management restated the plan of $78 billion for 2026 through 2030. Source
  • Not stated: The prior range was raised to $6.25 to $6.55, with the company citing first-half performance. Source

Other quarters

Summarised with AI from the documents the company filed with the SEC. Every point is checked against the filing before it is shown: management’s own words word for word, figures against the line or table row they come from. A point that fails the check is left out. Source opens the filing at that line.